# Method

# Top G Traders: backtest plan (+ PRELIMINARY first pass)

Subject: "Top G Traders" (@topg_traders, YouTube "Topgtraders" @Topgtraders05, UC7wXCd3dEzEgrJr_iQLrxfQ). He calls
himself **Atul Patil** on camera (identity, reach and money trail: `projects/.research/topg/01_identity_claims.md`,
evidence agent). Reference for method and tone: `projects/umar-audit/BACKTEST.md` (the "sauce" audit).
Code: `tools/fx_data.py` (data), `tools/topg_backtest.py` (backtest). Rules: `projects/topg-audit/topg_rules.json`
(every rule carries its source); dated copies in `projects/topg-audit/prereg/`. Nothing here is a trade recommendation.

> **Status (9 Oct 2026, 01:10 PKT).** Rules extracted and coded for three strategies. **Gold headline is FINAL:**
> real Dukascopy BID+ASK 1-minute data, 2015-01-01 → 2026-09-30 (all 7,356 day files, 4.16 M active minutes).
> EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY: HistData BID minutes with the ASK modelled from Dukascopy's real median spread by year and
> hour (the only bid/ask-free inputs; labelled everywhere). Full tables: `BACKTEST.md` (generated); data:
> `engine/public/projects/topg-audit/data/topg_results_*.json`, `topg_premises_*.json`, `topg_crosscheck_XAUUSD.json`.
> Section 12 has the headline numbers.

---

## 0. What he claims (his words first, commenters second)

Verbatim quotes (Devanagari, YouTube auto-captions, checked by script against the caption files; Whisper re-check
pending) are in `projects/.research/topg/rules_extract/*.md`. Links carry `&t=` seconds.

| # | Claim | Who / where | Framing |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | «इसमें मेरी स्ट्रेटजी 85% ऑफ द टाइम प्रॉफिटेबल विनिंग परफॉर्म करती है। तो हम सारा कुछ मेजर पेयर्स में ट्रेड करेंगे।» "My strategy performs profitably, winning, 85% of the time. So we will trade everything in major pairs." | Course lecture 1 (re-upload), [24:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vB_BWLk5PRk&t=1445s) | Stated as fact about his strategy; no sample |
| C2 | «…लॉन्ग रन में 100 में से 80 ट्रेड आपको विन करवा के देगा। यह रिकॉर्ड में है।» "In the long run it will win you 80 trades out of 100. It's on record." | Course lecture 5 (re-upload), [26:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXzlAThCsN4&t=1588s), speaker refers to himself as "Atul bhai" | Stated as fact; no record shown |
| C3 | «…एंड माय लाइव स्ट्रीम विन रेशियो इज 79 परसेंट» "my livestream win ratio is 79 percent" | Crash Course 2026 Day 2 (re-upload), [38:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjrQ9DMs0bQ&t=2302s) | Stated as his real statistic |
| C4 | «यह 85% ऑफ़ द टाइम मार्केट में आज भी वर्क करता है» "it still works 85% of the time" (about ISS) | Course 2026 ISS part 3 (re-upload), [14:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh4b2iqkeus&t=879s) | No data |
| C5 | "90% of the time … if there are both buying and selling levels, the first one to get tapped works best" | Crash Day 2, [33:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjrQ9DMs0bQ&t=1993s) | Observation, testable (premise P3) |
| C6 | 70% win ratio, 25-pip SL / 70-pip target, "account doubles to triples" | **His own channel**, "HOW TO GROW YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT" (29 Jun 2025), [03:58](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRYinzdSpt8&t=238s), [10:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRYinzdSpt8&t=632s) | A sizing example; he calls 70% the worst case |
| C7 | "max to max 70 to 80% … the actual accuracy of any strategy" | Course lecture 2, [02:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-_O2vsAvsQ&t=177s) | **Contradicts C1/C4** |
| C8 | "QML setup 70% win rate, 20% a month, 7% max drawdown" | Crash Day 3, [03:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J5N4om_XnY&t=218s)… | **A guest ("Umar bhai", Legion Funding) speaking, framed as an example** — not his statistic |
| C9 | "70% win rate at 1:3 on gold and all major forex pairs, 1-hour"; "officially 82%" | Umar-audit commenters #337, #335 | **Not found in any of his videos read so far.** The only 1:3 in his voice: «1:3 के आसपास के ट्रेड ले लेना» ("take trades around 1:3", Crash Day 3, [1:19:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J5N4om_XnY&t=4785s)) |

The test therefore compares results with **70%** (headline, the number his fans repeat) and also reports 79/80/85%.

**Second ASR check (local Whisper large-v3-turbo, `hi` + `en`, short windows; `projects/.research/topg/whisper_windows/`):**
C1 ("my strategy 85% of the time profitable winning … major pair"), C2 ("long run में hundred में से 80 trade … win करवा
के देगा, ये record में हैं"), C3 ("my live stream win ratio is 79 … percent"), C4 ("85 percent of the time market में आज
भी work करता है"), C5 ("I have seen 90%"), C6 ("70% जो है आपके विनिंग रेशो", "25 पिप … 70 पिप … 70 परसेंट विन रेशो"),
C7 ("max to max 70 to 80% … actual accuracy किसी भी strategy की"), the 1:3 line, the TJL1/TJL2 rule, the CHoCH rule,
"skip if SL > 40", "at least 1 is to 2.5", "accuracy wise one hour", the London and Fibonacci rules all **agree** with
the YouTube captions. Windows where Whisper came out garbled (2-candle definition, "30 pips from entry", "TP last
confirmed high", "> 100 pips") rely on the captions plus the agents' own Whisper log; the owner should listen before
any of them goes on screen.

## 1. Sources and how much weight each gets

| Tier | What | Use |
|---|---|---|
| A — his own public channel | London Session Strategy (26 Mar 2024), HOW TO USE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (24 Feb 2026), risk / R:R / timeframe Shorts, Grow-your-account (2025) | Rules **and** on-screen quotes |
| B — his paid course / crash course **re-uploaded by third parties** ("The Risk Edge", "The Trading Course Library") | The TopG level strategy (TJL1/TJL2 = A+, CHoCH, SBR/RBS/QML, ISS), timeframes, SL/TP, sessions, the 79/80/85% claims | Rules (this is where the strategy is taught). **Owner/legal decision needed before any clip or quote from these appears on screen** (`projects/.research/topg/need_owner.md` §2). The uploads look unauthorised. |
| C — third parties | Trades by RM ("EXPOSING TOPG STRATEGY", 5 Oct 2026), AlphaSniperFX (same audio re-uploaded), TopG Legit Traders (Nov–Dec backtest "70% H1, 68% M15"), FXwithJerry, Gem, KartikFxM (₹16,000 course review) | Cross-check of how students code his rules; their numbers are theirs (`rules_extract/third_party.md`) |

**Speaker caveats (matter for attribution).** The course has more than one teacher: Doubt Session 1 and lecture 6 /
Dual-CHoCH are taught by a co-instructor ("next lecture will be Atul sir's"); Crash Day 3's first ~28 min is a guest
from Legion Funding. Rules below are tagged with the video; anything said by someone else is labelled.

Instagram was not downloaded (coordinator's rule). The reels the audit still needs (the 70%/82% source above all) are
listed in `projects/.research/topg/need_owner.md`.

## 2. Strategy A — "TopG levels" (TJL2 = A+), the strategy behind the win-rate claims

Full verbatim tables: `rules_extract/doubt2_mtf_iss.md` (ISS, MTF, Doubt 2), `crash_d1_d2.md`, `crash_d3_doubt1.md`,
`structure_choch_tjl.md`, `dualchoch_rbs_sbr.md`. Codes: ISS = "Internal Structure Shift" (QZ0Wc_y-HVE),
MTF = "Multi Timeframe Analysis" (JO9AeBj2G7I), D2 = Doubt Session 2 (P_Rkgz4gKnY), DS1 = Doubt Session 1
(lMqhF6M6i1I, co-instructor), D1/D2c/D3 = Crash Course 2026 Day 1/2/3.

| Item | Rule as taught (quote · source) | Coded as |
|---|---|---|
| Instruments | Gold, major FX pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY), BTC; "majors" = any USD pair (lecture 1 [23:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vB_BWLk5PRk&t=1427s)); GBPJPY "plays very well" ([24:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vB_BWLk5PRk&t=1461s)); D2: "FX on H1, gold on M15/M5" | XAUUSD first; EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDUSD as data allows |
| Gold pip | "4660 → 4650 = 100 pips of slippage" ([D2 14:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=891s)); "$50 = 500 pips" ([D2c 46:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjrQ9DMs0bQ&t=2770s)) | 1 pip = $0.10 on gold, 0.0001 FX, 0.01 JPY |
| Timeframes | Bias from H1 ([D1 32:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=1961s)); levels on M15 with M5 confirmation ([D1 1:10:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=4246s)) or M1 ([D2c 1:07:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjrQ9DMs0bQ&t=4031s)); beginners: 1H only (DS1 19:23); "accuracy-wise 1 hour is best" (CHoCH part 2, [48:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X44ZEXnXfp8&t=2896s)); his own proof backtest: gold H1 ([D2 27:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=1659s)) | H1 levels (headline) and M15 levels + H1 bias |
| Two-candle retracement | «सेकंड रेड कैंडल की बॉडी क्लोज हो» "the second red candle's body closes below the first red candle's low; then the high before it is confirmed" ([ISS 04:19](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=259s)); consecutive (DS1 42:15); "no technical reason" for it (DS1 39:26) | red, red, close < previous low (variant "loose": any two reds) |
| Confirmed low | "when one candle closes above it, the lowest point … becomes our confirmed low" ([ISS 14:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=887s)); = "last support in the market" ([ISS 04:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=290s)) | state machine in `topg_structure()` |
| CHoCH | "two candles close below the last confirmed low … we become bearish" ([ISS 15:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=902s)); consecutive ([ISS 16:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=986s)); wicks don't count | 2 consecutive closes beyond the last confirmed low/high |
| TJL1 / TJL2 (A+) | «जैसे ही इस हाई के ऊपर एक ग्रीन कैंडल की क्लोजिंग होगी, इस लेवल वन की … टॉप विक और इस लेवल टू की … बॉटम विक … एक्टिव हो जाएंगे एज TJL वन एंड TJL टू फॉर बाइंग» ([ISS 30:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=1843s)); «TGL2 a प्लस है» "TJL2 is A+" ([ISS 31:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=1874s)) | zone = that wick (body edge to extreme) |
| Level invalid | "if two candles close below it, it's breached / invalid" ([MTF 56:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO9AeBj2G7I&t=3397s)) | 2 consecutive closes beyond the far edge |
| After a CHoCH | SBR (support becomes resistance), QML/"A+", double top ([ISS 16:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=1017s)); zone drawing "needs at least 12 sessions" ([D2 37:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=2259s)) | SBR/RBS = wick of the broken confirmed point; QML = wick of level 1 (structure extract's mapping, **our geometry**); double top not coded |
| Bias | trade with the level timeframe's structure ([ISS 11:53](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ0Wc_y-HVE&t=713s); D1 "never against H1"); MTF: D/4H/1H aligned | required (variant: off); "all conditions" variant adds H4 agreement |
| Entry | «कंफर्मेशन कैंडल विल बी ग्रीन कैंडल» "the confirmation candle will be a green candle when buying" ([MTF 28:10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO9AeBj2G7I&t=1690s)); "any green candle … as soon as it forms, enter" ([MTF 34:13](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO9AeBj2G7I&t=2053s)); engulfing = close above the previous candle's high ([D1 1:08:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=4107s)); his H1 backtest: a green H1 candle at the A+ ([D2 27:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=1659s)); MTF also wants a 1-minute CHoCH first ([MTF 18:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO9AeBj2G7I&t=1119s)) | first M5 (or H1) candle of the trade's colour that touches the zone, entry at the next minute; engulfing variant. **1-minute CHoCH entry not coded yet** |
| Stop | below the lowest low before the confirmation candle ([D1 1:06:11](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=3971s)); below the confirmation candle ([D2 27:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=1659s)); "30 pips from wherever you enter", tighter candle stop allowed, "10 pips extra" breathing space ([MTF 55:43–56:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO9AeBj2G7I&t=3343s)); skip if > 100 pips ([D1 1:20:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=4841s)), > 40 ([D2 41:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=2474s)), > 25–30 ([D3 43:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J5N4om_XnY&t=2598s)) | variants for each |
| Target | «बाइंग का टीपी हमेशा … लास्ट कंफर्म्ड हाई» "the buy TP should always be the last confirmed high" ([D2 27:04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Rkgz4gKnY&t=1624s)); min 1:2.5 ([D1 1:18:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=4701s)); half at 1R + rest ~100 pips (DS1 41:06, MTF 18:54); "around 1:3" ([D3 1:19:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J5N4om_XnY&t=4785s)) | struct TP (+ min 2.5R), 1:3, half@1R+100p, 1:2, 1:1 |
| Breakeven | used, trigger never stated ([MTF 27:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO9AeBj2G7I&t=1622s)) | variant BE at +1R |
| Sessions | 05:30–08:00, 11:30–14:00, 17:00–20:30 IST ([D3 28:13–28:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J5N4om_XnY&t=1693s)) | "all conditions" variant |
| Trades/day | max 2–3 (DS1); "2 trades a day keeps losses away" (own Short d0DpeJH_SCc) | "all conditions" variant (2/day) |
| Avoid | Nov–Dec "not worth trading" ([D1 20:29](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRpdG4Rz-Lk&t=1229s)); news (no list); volatile/choppy gold | per-month table (planned); news not coded |

**Not mechanically testable (said so plainly on screen if asked):** ISS / five-wave CHoCH entries, dual CHoCH,
double top/bottom and inducement levels (named, never drawn in words), "strong candle", "major vs random level", daily
bias from "global conditions", news judgement, runner management, the 1-minute CHoCH-then-candle entry (codeable, not
done yet). These are the "discretion" critics will raise; the variants below cover every coded reading and an
"all conditions" one.

## 3. Strategy B — Fibonacci golden zone (his own channel, 24 Feb 2026, hJOD6pWiARA)

| Item | Rule (quote · time) | Coded as |
|---|---|---|
| Timeframes | H1 for swing, M5 for intraday ([00:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=30s), [12:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=740s)) | both |
| Impulse | «फर्स्ट रेड कैंडल से लास्ट रेड कैंडल तक … जब तक रेड कैंडल नहीं बन जाती» "from the first red candle to the last … until an opposite candle forms" ([12:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=757s)); big momentum, trending market ([01:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=77s), [05:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=349s)) | ≥3 same-colour candles, range ≥ 4×ATR(14) (3× and 6× as sensitivity: **our threshold**) |
| Zone | 0.5–0.618 "most important" ([02:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=171s)) | as said |
| Entry/SL (old way) | "trade at 0.618, SL 0.786, target these highs … 1:4.5" ([07:26](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=446s)) | limit at 0.618 |
| Entry/SL (now) | M5 confirmation candle, SL below it ([04:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=252s), [08:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=480s)); M1 for M5 setups ([11:27](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=687s)) | first candle of our colour after the tap (engulfing variant) |
| Target | the impulse's extreme ([04:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=268s)) | + 1:2, 1:3 variants |
| Trend | "use Fib always with the trend" ([14:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=890s)) | H4 (or H1) close vs EMA50 — **our proxy** |
| His caveat | "use as an additive confirmation … don't build a whole strategy on it" ([17:02](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=1022s)); "not 100%" ([10:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJOD6pWiARA&t=654s)) | reported with the result |

## 4. Strategy C — London Session Strategy (his own channel, 26 Mar 2024, yGIL5BdtGmA)

| Item | Rule (quote · time) | Coded as |
|---|---|---|
| Time | starts 10:30 IST ([01:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=61s)); "works 11:30 to 2:30" ([00:28](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=28s)); range 10:30–11:30 "or 11:45" on 30-min ([03:06](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=186s)) | box 05:00–06:00 UTC (IST has no DST), entries to 09:00 UTC, flat 15:00 UTC (our exit) |
| Clean range | "left side should be a clean range" ([00:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=48s)); break toward the clean side ([01:22](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=82s)) | variant: prior 00:00–05:00 UTC never beyond that box edge |
| Fake-out | one close outside, next back inside = don't trade ([01:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=91s)) | order cancelled by a close back inside; strict variant needs the 2nd close outside |
| Entry | 30-min close outside, then its low breaks ([02:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=140s), [03:12](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=192s)) | stop order at that candle's extreme |
| SL | "its high is our 15-minute SL", "10, 15 or 20 pips, not more" ([02:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=145s), [03:18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=198s)) | breakout candle extreme; 15-min swing; ≤20-pip cap |
| TP | "last support in the market", "liquidity area" ([02:38](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=158s)); "you get 1:2, 1:3 trades" ([02:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGIL5BdtGmA&t=162s)) | nearest 30-min swing; 1:2; 1:3 |
| Instrument | not stated | gold + majors |

## 5. Variants (all reported; written before the full run, dated copies in `prereg/`)

TopG: 23 variants (H1/M15 levels × confirmation × SL rule × target × filters), headline set = his closest readings,
the commenters' 1:3, the all-conditions reading and one generous 1:1 reading. Fibonacci: 15. London: 10.
Six TopG variants (two with the SL +10-pip breathing space; no bias filter; QML; first tap only; all coded levels) were
**added after the first pass**, each from his own words (`topg_rules.json` → `_added_after_first_pass`), and are reported next to the
originals, never instead of them. No parameter was changed because of a result.

## 6. Data

- **Primary:** Dukascopy BID **and** ASK 1-minute candles (`tools/fx_data.py fetch/build`), cached byte-for-byte under
  `data_raw/dukascopy/<SYM>/YYYY/MM/DD/` (month 0-based), every calendar day except Saturdays, 2015-01-01 → 2026-09-30
  (7,356 files per symbol). Processed: `data_raw/<SYM>_m1.npz` (integer prices, zero-volume filler minutes dropped,
  gap report `<SYM>_gaps.json`). Times in UTC; FX "day" = 17:00→17:00 New York; H1 candles are UTC-aligned (same on
  MT4 server time or IST display); H4/D aligned to 17:00 NY. Gold's daily break and weekends contain no rows, so no
  flat candles are built.
- **Second source:** HistData.com 1-minute BID (`fx_data.py histdata`), stamps read as **New York local time** (checked:
  XAUUSD minute returns correlate 1.00 with Dukascopy at lag 0 on 111/117 random days, median price difference 0.0; the
  six misfits are the March weeks when the US and EU clocks differ, in 2024–2025; EURUSD hourly closes match Dukascopy
  at lag 0 in 47/47 months). **HistData XAUUSD has holes in 2023** (68 weekdays with < 1,000 minutes, whole hours
  missing), which is why it is only the cross-check source.
- **Spread for BID-only data:** Dukascopy's real median spread by (year, UTC hour) — from cached minute days (gold:
  $0.23–0.76 by year) or monthly hourly-candle files (`fx_data.py hourly`, majors). Labelled "modelled ASK".
- **Status (9 Oct 01:10 local):** XAUUSD Dukascopy minute complete, 7,356/7,356 files (2015-01-01 → 2026-09-30, plus
  1 Aug–8 Oct 2026 for the livestream agent), built into `XAUUSD_m1.npz` (4,161,424 active minutes, 3,033 FX days;
  gap report: 124 gaps > 15 min, all holiday closes such as Christmas and Good Friday; median spread $0.24–0.69 by
  year). HistData BID complete for XAUUSD + 7 majors; Dukascopy hourly spread files complete for EURUSD, GBPUSD,
  USDJPY (AUDUSD partial; download stopped). Disk: `data_raw` ≈ 0.75 GB (budget 4 GB).

## 7. Execution model (same conventions as the umar audit)

Signals on the BID chart. Breakout entries: stop order, fills at the ASK (+ spread) for longs. Limit entries fill only
when the executable side trades through the level, at the level. Candle-confirmation entries: market at the next
minute's open (ASK for longs, BID for shorts). Exits on the executable side; stop fills at the level or a worse open
(gaps, weekends); targets exactly at the level. **Stop first** when stop and target share a minute; on the entry
minute a stop touch is a loss and a target counts only if the minute closed beyond it; an "optimistic intrabar" upper
bound is reported. Costs: real spread + slippage ($0.05 gold / 0.1 pip FX per stop or market fill) + commission
($7 per lot round trip = $0.07/oz gold, 0.7 pip FX). Zero-cost run for every headline variant.
Win = net R > 0 (generous); full-target rate shown separately. Two levels confirmed by the same candle = one trade.

## 8. What we measure

Per variant, instrument and year: trades, trades/week, win rate with 95% Wilson CI, full-target %, stop %, breakeven %,
average R (expectancy) with CI, average win / loss, **break-even win rate** from the measured win/loss sizes, profit
factor, total R, max drawdown in R, longest losing streak. **Money = fixed capital:** $10,000 account, a flat $100
(1% of the start) risked on every trade, no compounding; if the balance hits $0 we say the account is blown (date and
trade number) instead of printing negative money. A compounded line is reported separately and labelled. Years at or
above 70% (and 79/80/85%). Per-month table (his "skip Nov–Dec").

## 9. His premises, measured directly

- P1 "TJL2 / A+ is the best area": hit rate of A+ vs TJL1 vs SBR/RBS vs QML on identical entry rules.
- P2 "1 hour is the most accurate": H1 vs M15 levels, same rules.
- P3 "the first level tapped works 90% of the time" (C5): when a buy and a sell level are both live, how often the
  first-tapped one reaches its target before its stop.
- P4 "70–85% win rate": the generous 1:1 reading (zero cost) as the ceiling of what his levels do.
- P5 "SL of 30 pips is enough on gold": distribution of the stop sizes his rules produce, and cost as a share of risk.

## 10. Critics' arguments, answered by design

1. *Compounding maths was attacked* → fixed $100 per trade; blown-account date instead of crore numbers.
2. *Wrong market* → his own markets: gold first, then the USD majors, on H1 (his "most accurate") and M15.
3. *"A bot can't apply his discretion"* → every coded condition, an "all conditions" variant (H1 A+, H4 agreement, his
   IST windows, max 2/day, SL ≤ 40 pips, TP last high with ≥ 1:2.5), plus the list of what can't be coded.
4. *"44% at 1:2 is profitable"* → expectancy, profit factor and the break-even win rate are on every row; the London
   strategy shows the opposite case too (≈55% wins, still losing money because the target is closer than the stop).
5. *"Show the data"* → every trade of every variant in `data_raw/trades/<run>/`, rules file, code, prereg copies.
6. *"He trades live"* → his livestreams (747, "DAY 1" to "DAY 515") are the primary record. Plan: auto-captions of the
   most recent 45 streams → list every announced entry/SL/TP with its time → check each against the minute data.
   **Blocked for now:** YouTube started answering "Sign in to confirm you're not a bot" for this IP late on 8 Oct
   (no cookies allowed). Retry later; the stream list is in `projects/.research/topg/yt/`.

## 11. Open-source cross-checks

- **RM's "JADU TONA"** TradingView indicator (open source, no licence header; TradingView house rules) implements TopG
  structure, TJL1/2, QML, SBR/RBS, ISS: https://www.tradingview.com/script/IOFDitMf-JADU-TONA/ — saved for reading only
  (`projects/.research/topg/jadu_tona_rm_v18.pine`), not copied. Its two-candle retracement matches ours (two reds, the
  second closing below the first's low).
- `joshyattridge/smart-money-concepts` (MIT, Python, 2k★): swing/BOS/CHoCH/OB/FVG — generic SMC, used only as a sanity
  reference. GitHub has no TopG backtest (`AlgoNeel/TopgTraders` is a page linking 14 "official course videos" on
  Google Drive; `monishs250-cell/topg-traders` is empty).
- Third-party "backtests" of TopG (RM, AlphaSniperFX, TopG Legit Traders) are hindsight walk-throughs of 2–3 months
  without R:R or rule-based exits (`rules_extract/third_party.md`).

## 12. Results (gold FINAL on Dukascopy bid/ask; FX on HistData bid + modelled ask)

Period 2015-01 → 2026-09. Win = trade closed with net R > 0 after costs; full-target rate in `BACKTEST.md`. Money =
fixed $100 per trade on $10,000. Every number below is from `engine/public/projects/topg-audit/data/topg_results_*.json`.

### 12.1 TopG levels — three readings side by side (critics' table)

- **Exact** = his own gold H1 "backtest" procedure (D2 27:39: a green H1 candle at the A+, SL below it, TP the last
  confirmed high) + his "skip if SL > 40 pips" (D2 41:14).
- **All conditions** = H1 A+ + H4 structure agrees + M5 confirmation candle + SL ≤ 40 pips + TP last high with ≥ 1:2.5
  + only his IST windows + max 2 trades a day.
- **Most generous** = H1 A+ + M5 candle with a **1:1** target (maximises win rate); also run with zero costs and the
  most favourable intrabar order.

| Symbol | Reading | Trades | Win rate after costs (95% CI) | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Win rate zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Years ≥ 70% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **XAUUSD** | Exact | 145 | **14.5%** (9.7–21.1) | −0.477 | 0.48 | 26.0% | 17.2% | −0.068 | 0 of 11 |
| | All conditions | 146 | **8.9%** (5.3–14.6) | −0.449 | 0.55 | 15.2% | 9.3% | −0.220 | 0 of 11 |
| | Most generous (1:1) | 539 | **39.3%** (35.3–43.5) | −0.283 | 0.57 | 53.1% | 50.6% (51.2% with generous intrabar) | +0.012 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | Exact | 360 | 20.3% (16.4–24.7) | −0.380 | 0.56 | 31.1% | 20.3% | −0.280 | 0 of 12 |
| | All conditions | 226 | 11.9% (8.3–16.8) | −0.011 | 0.99 | 12.1% | 12.3% | +0.354 | 0 of 12 |
| | Most generous (1:1) | 687 | 49.1% (45.3–52.8) | −0.180 | 0.70 | 57.9% | 53.0% | +0.059 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | Exact | 322 | 23.0% (18.7–27.9) | −0.176 | 0.79 | 27.4% | 24.2% | −0.019 | 0 of 12 |
| | All conditions | 200 | 7.0% (4.2–11.4) | −0.367 | 0.65 | 10.4% | 7.5% | −0.190 | 0 of 12 |
| | Most generous (1:1) | 632 | 42.6% (38.8–46.5) | −0.277 | 0.58 | 56.1% | 48.8% | −0.024 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | Exact | 338 | 23.4% (19.2–28.2) | −0.058 | 0.93 | 24.7% | 24.0% | +0.075 | 0 of 12 |
| | All conditions | 195 | 8.7% (5.5–13.5) | −0.432 | 0.58 | 14.0% | 8.7% | −0.240 | 0 of 12 |
| | Most generous (1:1) | 642 | 41.6% (37.8–45.4) | −0.307 | 0.54 | 56.8% | 45.3% | −0.095 | 0 of 12 |

Year-by-year for each reading, after costs and at zero cost: `BACKTEST.md` → "three readings side by side".
The commenters' 1:3 reading (H1 A+, M5 candle, SL ≤ 40 pips): gold 17.1% (zero cost 25.8%), EURUSD 25.6%, GBPUSD 21.4%,
USDJPY 22.4%. **Across all 30 TopG variants × 4 instruments, 0 of 1,438 variant-years reached 70%**; the highest
full-period win rate of any TopG variant is 49.9% (GBPUSD, 1:1 target).

### 12.2 "25 SL in a row is impossible" (his own stream, 8 Oct 2026), tested as he framed it

M15 A+ (TJL2) levels only, every level executed directly with a limit at the zone, SL 25 pips (zones that fit in 25 pips):

| | Gold | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades (2015–2026) | 1,589 | 2,353 | 2,175 | 2,232 |
| Longest run of consecutive stop-losses, his target (last confirmed high/low) | **38** (3 runs of 25+) | 11 | 14 | 19 |
| … with 1:3 | **38** (2 runs of 25+) | 16 | **28** (1 run) | 19 |
| … with 1:2 / 1:1 | 20 / 14 | 13 / 11 | 16 / 8 | 19 / 13 |
| … SL 20 pips, his target | **43** (7 runs of 25+) | 12 | 16 | 19 |
| … every level, no bias filter, 1:3 | **33** (4 runs) | 19 | **27** (2 runs) | 21 |

So it is **not impossible on gold** (his own market on that stream): with his own target rule, runs of 25+ stop-losses
happened 3 times (first completed 10 Jan 2023), with 20-pip stops 7 times. On the FX pairs the longest runs were 8–28.
He also said "take out the result of 100 trades — what R:R and win rate you get": on gold the same rows win 15.9–38.5%
and lose 0.27–0.41R per trade after costs.

### 12.3 Fibonacci and London (his own channel)

| Strategy · reading | Gold | EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fib H1, limit 0.618, SL 0.786, TP extreme, with trend | 20.2%, −0.115R (zero cost 21.8%, −0.005R) | 16.9%, −0.285R | 23.1%, **+0.031R** (PF 1.04, CI −0.23…+0.29) | 17.9%, −0.233R |
| Fib H1, M5 confirmation candle, TP extreme, trend | 8.7%, −0.558R | 11.1%, −0.273R | 9.1%, −0.470R | 11.3%, −0.044R |
| London, TP last 30-min swing | **55.1%**, −0.202R (needs 70.2% to break even) | 56.5%, −0.111R | 56.4%, −0.147R | 54.7%, −0.167R |
| London, TP 1:2 | 29.8%, −0.196R | 34.2%, −0.114R | 34.5%, −0.083R | 33.4%, −0.138R |

Across all 220 variant × instrument rows, **5 have a positive average after costs, all on GBPUSD** (TopG engulfing
+0.059R, TopG QML +0.175R on 216 trades, three Fibonacci H1 limit rows +0.010 to +0.110R); every one has a 95% CI
spanning zero, and with 220 rows tested a few positives are expected by chance. No gold row is positive.

### 12.4 His premises

| Premise | Gold H1 | Gold M15 | EURUSD M15 | GBPUSD M15 | USDJPY M15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ (TJL2) zone "works"* | 48.2% | 41.2% | 29.2% | 34.2% | 32.0% |
| Random zone, same width and direction | 48.0% | 41.0% | 26.6% | 32.0% | 31.6% |
| First-tapped level works (his "90%") | 46.7% | 42.3% | 28.7% | 34.6% | 31.9% |
| Level tapped second | 47.5% | 33.3% | 11.0% | 22.1% | 17.2% |

*works = +60 pips from the zone before −30 pips beyond it, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop at 1:2). A+ levels react like
random zones on gold and 0.4–2.6 points better on FX; the first-tapped level does beat the second-tapped one on most
instruments (his direction is right), but at 29–47%, not 90%. Details incl. H1 FX: `BACKTEST.md`.

### 12.5 Data cross-check and spot checks

- **Second source:** the same headline rules at zero cost on HistData BID vs Dukascopy BID (gold): 81–89% of trades
  enter in the same minute, win rates within 1.2 points (e.g. 1:1 reading 50.7% vs 50.6%; London 67.2% vs 67.4%).
- **Hand spot checks (Dukascopy), printouts in `data_raw/spotcheck_*.txt`:** TopG exact 22 May 2018 short (zone
  1295.49–1296.83, red H1 12:00 candle touches it, fill 13:00 BID open − slip 1293.939, SL its high 1296.121, stopped
  23 May 09:50, R = (1293.939 − 1296.171 − 0.07)/2.182 = −1.055) and 12 Aug 2024 short (stopped in 7 minutes, −1.054R,
  planned R:R 40 because the "last confirmed low" sat $89 away); M15 direct 17 Aug 2023 long (limit 1890.075 filled
  15:56, SL 25 pips 1887.575, stopped 17:02, −1.048R); Fib H1 2 Dec 2020 long (six greens 1807.4→1832.3, tap of 0.5 at
  12:40, first green M5 12:50, fill 1819.25, SL 1816.69, stopped 13:45); London 12 Feb 2025 long (box 2883.51–2887.80,
  06:00 close 2889.9, stop at 2894.4 filled 07:06 at 2894.895, SL 2885.435 = 94.6 pips, TP nearest swing 2897.745 =
  0.3R, stopped 10:32). All recomputed by hand from the printed bars.
- Earlier HistData spot checks found HistData's 2023 gold holes and a duplicate-trade bug (fixed before these runs).

### 12.6 Which level rules are his and which are ours (lead the video with the first group only)

**Explicit in his words:** two-candle retracement (2nd red body closes below the 1st red's low, consecutive);
confirmed high/low; CHoCH = two consecutive closes beyond the last confirmed low/high; TJL1 = top wick of level 1 and
TJL2 = bottom wick of level 2, active after one close above level 1; "TJL2 is A+"; a level is breached by two closes
beyond it; confirmation = a candle of the trade's colour at the level; TP = last confirmed high/low; his SL rules.
**Our interpretation:** SBR/RBS zones (wick of the broken point), QML/post-CHoCH "A+" zone, "wick" = body edge to
extreme, tap = BID touch, bias made mechanical, entry at the next minute's open, direct entry at the zone's near
edge, 120 h / 48 h holding cap. **Not coded:** ISS/five-wave entries, dual CHoCH, double top/bottom, the 1-minute
CHoCH-then-candle entry, news, "strong candle". The headline readings use only explicit-rule levels (TJL2); SBR/RBS
and QML rows are separate variants.

### 12.7 Source check: was "Crash Course 2026" free on his channel?

**No.** None of his channels' public videos, streams, Shorts or playlists (@Topgtraders05 = UC7wXCd3dEzEgrJr_iQLrxfQ:
47 videos, 127 Shorts, 747 streams; "Atul Patil Uncensored": 6 videos, no streams) contains a crash course or a class,
and no members-only or unlisted entries are listed; YouTube search finds it only on third-party channels. In the
recording itself he calls it a paid class: "this will be the best $50 you'll ever spend" (D1 1:35:36), "723 enrolled,
850 in class" (D1 1:03:03), "100 people = ₹5 lakh" (D1 1:49:26), "this crash course is the end of my courses for the
next six months" (D1 21:48). So the 79% (D2 38:22), 80% (lecture 5, 26:28) and 85% (lecture 1, 24:05; ISS 14:39)
lines exist **only in third-party re-uploads of paid classes**. Own-channel lines available for clips instead: the
8 Oct 2026 stream ("25 SL in a row … impossible", 2BK6Ih2igBI ≈ 12:14), "70% win ratio" (oRYinzdSpt8 03:58, 10:32),
the London and Fibonacci rules. The new livestream agent may find a win-rate line in his streams.

## 13. Questions for the owner

1. The source of "70% at 1:3" / "officially 82%" (commenters #337/#335 or a reel) — not found in any of his videos;
   the claim we lead with should be his words, not a fan's.
2. OK to quote / clip the re-uploaded **paid** classes (79/80/85%)? They are not on his own channel (12.7). If not,
   lead with own-channel lines (8 Oct 2026 stream "25 SL in a row impossible"; "70% win ratio" in oRYinzdSpt8).
3. Which strategy leads: TopG levels (the fans' "70–85%" strategy) or his own-channel Fibonacci / London?
4. Livestream audit: handed to the new agent (stream captions saved in `projects/.research/topg/streams/`).

## 14. Reproduce

```bash
.venv/bin/python tools/fx_data.py fetch --symbols XAUUSD          # Dukascopy BID+ASK 1-min (resumable; --reverse / --shuffle N for extra workers)
.venv/bin/python tools/fx_data.py build --symbols XAUUSD          # -> data_raw/XAUUSD_m1.npz + XAUUSD_gaps.json
.venv/bin/python tools/fx_data.py histdata --symbols XAUUSD,EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY   # 2nd source / BID-only FX
.venv/bin/python tools/fx_data.py hourly --symbols EURUSD,GBPUSD,USDJPY --months 1,4,7,10   # spread profile for BID-only data
.venv/bin/python tools/topg_backtest.py run --symbols XAUUSD --source dukascopy --tag XAUUSD_dukascopy
.venv/bin/python tools/topg_backtest.py run --symbols EURUSD --source histdata --tag EURUSD_histdata   # same for GBPUSD, USDJPY
.venv/bin/python tools/topg_backtest.py crosscheck --symbols XAUUSD --strategies topg,fib,london
.venv/bin/python tools/topg_backtest.py premise --symbols XAUUSD --source dukascopy --tf 60   # and --tf 15; FX with --source histdata
.venv/bin/python tools/topg_backtest.py spot --symbols XAUUSD --strategies topg --variant "H1 A+ | H1 candle | SL candle | TP last high | SL<=40p" --source dukascopy --n 2
.venv/bin/python tools/topg_backtest.py report --tag XAUUSD_dukascopy,EURUSD_histdata,GBPUSD_histdata,USDJPY_histdata
```
Outputs: `engine/public/projects/topg-audit/data/topg_results_<tag>.json`, `topg_premises_*.json`,
`topg_crosscheck_XAUUSD.json`; trades `data_raw/trades/<tag>/*.csv.gz` (one file per variant, every trade);
`BACKTEST.md` (generated tables).


---

# Results

# Top G Traders strategies: backtest results

_Generated by `tools/topg_backtest.py report`. Rules, sources and method: `BACKTEST_PLAN.md` and `topg_rules.json`. Win = trade closed with net R > 0 after costs. Money = fixed $100 risk per trade on a $10,000 account, no compounding._

- **XAUUSD**: real Dukascopy BID+ASK 1-minute (headline); 2015-01-01 .. 2026-09-30, 4,161,424 active minutes.
- **EURUSD**: HistData BID 1-minute + ASK modelled from Dukascopy's median spread by year and hour; 2015-01-01 .. 2026-10-01, 4,319,805 active minutes.
- **GBPUSD**: HistData BID 1-minute + ASK modelled from Dukascopy's median spread by year and hour; 2015-01-01 .. 2026-10-01, 4,318,192 active minutes.
- **USDJPY**: HistData BID 1-minute + ASK modelled from Dukascopy's median spread by year and hour; 2015-01-01 .. 2026-10-01, 4,317,539 active minutes.

## TopG levels (TJL2 = A+)

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | /week | Win rate (95% CI) | Full target | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Total R | Max DD (R) | Longest losing run | $10k fixed $100/trade | Years ≥70% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 145 | 0.24 | 14.5% (9.7–21.1) | 14.5% | -0.477 | 0.481 | 26.0% | -69 | 80.1 | 23 | $3,085 | 0 of 11 |
| XAUUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 480 | 0.78 | 8.8% (6.5–11.6) | 7.3% | -0.443 | 0.554 | 14.7% | -213 | 217.4 | 33 | blown 2018-10-08 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 539 | 0.88 | 17.1% (14.1–20.5) | 17.1% | -0.413 | 0.55 | 27.2% | -222 | 224.9 | 28 | blown 2019-05-17 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 539 | 0.88 | 10.4% (8.1–13.3) | 10.4% | -0.414 | 0.43 | 21.2% | -223 | 226.4 | 49 | blown 2018-12-14 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 146 | 0.24 | 8.9% (5.3–14.6) | 6.8% | -0.449 | 0.546 | 15.2% | -66 | 65.6 | 22 | $3,442 | 0 of 11 |
| XAUUSD | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 981 | 1.6 | 11.1% (9.3–13.2) | 9.1% | -0.439 | 0.552 | 18.5% | -430 | 456.4 | 51 | blown 2017-02-28 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 539 | 0.88 | 39.3% (35.3–43.5) | 39.1% | -0.283 | 0.572 | 53.1% | -152 | 156.0 | 11 | blown 2020-12-09 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 360 | 0.59 | 20.3% (16.4–24.7) | 19.4% | -0.380 | 0.564 | 31.1% | -137 | 143.1 | 26 | blown 2021-07-27 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 659 | 1.08 | 10.0% (7.9–12.5) | 9.1% | -0.287 | 0.731 | 13.2% | -189 | 215.0 | 34 | blown 2018-08-13 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 687 | 1.12 | 25.6% (22.5–29.0) | 25.5% | -0.186 | 0.794 | 30.3% | -128 | 140.3 | 17 | blown 2023-09-05 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 687 | 1.12 | 7.1% (5.4–9.3) | 5.4% | -0.261 | 0.629 | 10.9% | -179 | 191.1 | 44 | blown 2018-11-02 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 226 | 0.37 | 11.9% (8.3–16.8) | 10.2% | -0.011 | 0.989 | 12.1% | -3 | 62.0 | 20 | $9,743 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1310 | 2.14 | 12.7% (11.1–14.7) | 10.2% | -0.329 | 0.695 | 17.4% | -431 | 457.2 | 48 | blown 2017-02-14 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 687 | 1.12 | 49.1% (45.3–52.8) | 49.2% | -0.180 | 0.699 | 57.9% | -123 | 130.1 | 15 | blown 2023-10-25 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 322 | 0.53 | 23.0% (18.7–27.9) | 20.8% | -0.176 | 0.792 | 27.4% | -57 | 56.8 | 13 | $4,319 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 610 | 1.0 | 10.7% (8.4–13.4) | 9.5% | -0.066 | 0.937 | 11.3% | -40 | 75.2 | 28 | $6,001 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 632 | 1.03 | 21.4% (18.3–24.7) | 21.4% | -0.311 | 0.664 | 29.0% | -196 | 196.3 | 17 | blown 2021-10-27 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 632 | 1.03 | 7.1% (5.4–9.4) | 6.8% | -0.316 | 0.587 | 11.6% | -200 | 206.6 | 39 | blown 2020-10-06 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 200 | 0.33 | 7.0% (4.2–11.4) | 5.5% | -0.367 | 0.65 | 10.4% | -73 | 107.4 | 24 | blown 2024-08-02 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1212 | 1.98 | 12.0% (10.3–14.0) | 9.7% | -0.364 | 0.645 | 17.5% | -442 | 445.4 | 44 | blown 2018-11-16 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 632 | 1.03 | 42.6% (38.8–46.5) | 42.6% | -0.277 | 0.58 | 56.1% | -175 | 176.1 | 9 | blown 2023-07-25 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 338 | 0.55 | 23.4% (19.2–28.2) | 22.2% | -0.058 | 0.93 | 24.7% | -20 | 44.7 | 24 | $8,052 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 610 | 1.0 | 8.2% (6.3–10.6) | 7.2% | -0.426 | 0.599 | 13.0% | -260 | 271.1 | 37 | blown 2019-04-15 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 642 | 1.05 | 22.4% (19.4–25.8) | 22.3% | -0.282 | 0.693 | 29.5% | -181 | 208.7 | 22 | blown 2019-06-21 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 642 | 1.05 | 5.9% (4.3–8.0) | 4.7% | -0.394 | 0.481 | 11.6% | -253 | 255.6 | 72 | blown 2018-10-03 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 195 | 0.32 | 8.7% (5.5–13.5) | 7.2% | -0.432 | 0.584 | 14.0% | -84 | 96.3 | 29 | $1,576 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1207 | 1.97 | 11.3% (9.6–13.2) | 9.4% | -0.371 | 0.651 | 16.3% | -448 | 468.8 | 47 | blown 2017-02-22 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 642 | 1.05 | 41.6% (37.8–45.4) | 41.6% | -0.307 | 0.542 | 56.8% | -197 | 200.5 | 11 | blown 2019-12-04 | 0 of 12 |

**XAUUSD, all 30 variants:** highest win rate 39.3% (H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate)); best average -0.185R (H1 A+ · M5 engulfing · SL low-since-tap · TP last high); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 358; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 145 | 14.5% | 14.5% | 85.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.051 | 1.074 | 26.0% | -0.477 | 0.481 | -69 | 2.317 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 282, 'skip_sl_too_big': 162, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 5} |
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high | 298 | 24.2% | 21.8% | 75.2% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.349 | 1.041 | 30.7% | -0.222 | 0.719 | -66 | 4.14 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 282, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 13} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 480 | 8.8% | 7.3% | 91.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 6.3 | 1.09 | 14.7% | -0.443 | 0.554 | -213 | 1.8665 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'skip_rr_below_min': 25, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'skip_sl_too_big': 34, 'dup_same_entry': 17} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 538 | 9.9% | 8.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.376 | 1.082 | 16.8% | -0.446 | 0.543 | -240 | 2.06 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 539 | 17.1% | 17.1% | 82.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.955 | 1.106 | 27.2% | -0.413 | 0.55 | -222 | 1.669 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 539 | 10.4% | 10.4% | 89.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.004 | 0.81 | 21.2% | -0.414 | 0.43 | -223 | 1.669 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 engulfing · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 516 | 15.3% | 12.8% | 84.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 4.629 | 1.055 | 18.6% | -0.185 | 0.793 | -95 | 2.896 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 370, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 27} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:2 | 539 | 24.3% | 23.9% | 75.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.943 | 1.081 | 35.8% | -0.346 | 0.577 | -187 | 2.06 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 539 | 39.3% | 39.1% | 60.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.962 | 1.09 | 53.1% | -0.283 | 0.572 | -152 | 2.06 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · TP last high · BE at 1R | 538 | 6.5% | 5.2% | 60.6% | 32.9% | 1.3% | 5.567 | 0.729 | 11.6% | -0.320 | 0.531 | -172 | 2.06 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 TJL1+A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 1338 | 17.3% | 16.7% | 82.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.728 | 1.105 | 28.8% | -0.441 | 0.518 | -590 | 1.6435 | {'levels': 1958, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 35, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 56} |
| H1 SBR/RBS · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 408 | 15.0% | 14.7% | 85.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.955 | 1.119 | 22.1% | -0.361 | 0.621 | -147 | 1.53 | {'levels': 490, 'skip_trend_flipped': 71, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1} |
| H1 A+ · loose 2-candle rule · M5 candle · TP last high | 745 | 9.7% | 8.6% | 90.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 6.086 | 1.082 | 15.1% | -0.390 | 0.602 | -290 | 2.04 | {'levels': 1321, 'skip_trend_flipped': 467, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 146 | 8.9% | 6.8% | 91.1% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 6.062 | 1.086 | 15.2% | -0.449 | 0.546 | -66 | 1.817 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_outside_session': 445, 'skip_trend_flipped': 174, 'skip_htf_bias': 91, 'skip_sl_too_big': 53, 'skip_rr_below_min': 6, 'dup_same_entry': 4} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 981 | 11.1% | 9.1% | 88.5% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 4.872 | 1.103 | 18.5% | -0.439 | 0.552 | -430 | 1.64 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1326, 'skip_rr_below_min': 159, 'skip_htf_bias': 554, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 2, 'skip_sl_too_big': 66, 'dup_same_entry': 79} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M1 candle · SL min(30p,candle)<=40p · half@1R + rest@100p | 1297 | 6.2% | 5.5% | 93.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.643 | 0.995 | 21.5% | -0.709 | 0.241 | -920 | 0.933 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1290, 'skip_htf_bias': 585, 'dup_same_entry': 59} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · 1:3 | 1189 | 17.6% | 16.4% | 81.7% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 2.804 | 1.092 | 28.0% | -0.407 | 0.548 | -484 | 1.831 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1326, 'skip_htf_bias': 554, 'dup_same_entry': 98} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · no bias filter (old levels kept) | 538 | 9.9% | 8.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.376 | 1.082 | 16.8% | -0.446 | 0.543 | -240 | 2.06 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 363, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap +10p · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 439 | 11.4% | 9.3% | 88.6% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 4.863 | 1.046 | 17.7% | -0.373 | 0.598 | -164 | 2.89 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'skip_rr_below_min': 63, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'skip_sl_too_big': 38, 'dup_same_entry': 16} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p, candle+10p) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 539 | 19.1% | 19.1% | 80.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.97 | 1.052 | 26.2% | -0.284 | 0.667 | -153 | 2.669 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 362, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 QML (post-CHoCH A+) · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 192 | 7.8% | 7.3% | 92.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 9.617 | 1.094 | 10.2% | -0.257 | 0.745 | -49 | 1.628 | {'levels': 367, 'skip_trend_flipped': 137, 'skip_rr_below_min': 7, 'skip_sl_too_big': 10} |
| H1 A+ first tap only (confirm within 1h) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 453 | 8.8% | 7.3% | 91.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 6.008 | 1.09 | 15.4% | -0.463 | 0.534 | -210 | 1.91 | {'levels': 979, 'skip_trend_flipped': 327, 'skip_rr_below_min': 24, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'skip_sl_too_big': 28, 'dup_same_entry': 13} |
| H1 all coded levels (TJL1, A+, SBR/RBS, QML) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 1418 | 9.9% | 9.3% | 90.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 5.722 | 1.117 | 16.3% | -0.437 | 0.566 | -619 | 1.515 | {'levels': 2815, 'skip_trend_flipped': 660, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 33, 'skip_rr_below_min': 431, 'skip_sl_too_big': 92, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 73} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 1589 | 19.8% | 17.2% | 79.2% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.72 | 1.039 | 27.6% | -0.294 | 0.647 | -467 | 2.5 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1045, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 559, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 1589 | 19.0% | 16.9% | 80.1% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.757 | 1.04 | 27.4% | -0.318 | 0.622 | -506 | 2.5 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1045, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 559, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 1589 | 25.0% | 24.1% | 74.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.922 | 1.039 | 35.1% | -0.298 | 0.618 | -473 | 2.5 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1045, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 559, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 1589 | 38.5% | 38.3% | 60.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.969 | 1.04 | 51.8% | -0.267 | 0.582 | -425 | 2.5 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1045, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 559, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 1487 | 15.9% | 13.9% | 83.4% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.976 | 1.055 | 26.2% | -0.412 | 0.535 | -613 | 2.0 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_trend_flipped': 969, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 738, 'dup_same_entry': 36} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 1589 | 19.8% | 17.2% | 79.2% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.72 | 1.039 | 27.6% | -0.294 | 0.647 | -467 | 2.5 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1045, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 559, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 2608 | 19.7% | 17.9% | 79.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.792 | 1.039 | 27.1% | -0.285 | 0.658 | -744 | 2.5 | {'levels': 3341, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 559, 'dup_same_entry': 63} |

</details>

XAUUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 14.5% | -0.477 | 17.2% | -0.068 | 0.919 | 15.2% | -0.291 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 8.8% | -0.443 | 9.1% | -0.221 | 0.757 | 8.8% | -0.443 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 17.1% | -0.413 | 25.8% | 0.031 | 1.042 | 18.0% | -0.375 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 10.4% | -0.414 | 12.8% | -0.083 | 0.841 | 10.9% | -0.382 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 8.9% | -0.449 | 9.3% | -0.22 | 0.757 | 8.9% | -0.449 |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 11.1% | -0.439 | 13.5% | -0.064 | 0.926 | 11.2% | -0.434 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 39.3% | -0.283 | 50.6% | 0.012 | 1.024 | 39.7% | -0.275 |

XAUUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.0% (9, -10R) | 8.6% (35, -22R) | 13.2% (38, -22R) | 7.9% (38, -17R) | 0.0% (11, -12R) | 10.9% (64, -36R) | 34.2% (38, -14R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% (12, -13R) | 8.1% (37, -21R) | 25.0% (40, -3R) | 10.0% (40, -16R) | 0.0% (9, -10R) | 9.4% (85, -46R) | 45.0% (40, -6R) |
| 2017 | 24.0% (25, -8R) | 7.8% (51, -31R) | 17.5% (57, -26R) | 3.5% (57, -34R) | 11.1% (18, -7R) | 12.1% (107, -58R) | 36.8% (57, -21R) |
| 2018 | 17.2% (29, -12R) | 10.2% (59, -22R) | 13.6% (59, -35R) | 6.8% (59, -30R) | 16.7% (18, +2R) | 11.6% (95, -52R) | 32.2% (59, -28R) |
| 2019 | 9.1% (11, -9R) | 7.5% (40, -22R) | 9.8% (41, -30R) | 7.3% (41, -27R) | 18.8% (16, +5R) | 12.0% (75, -29R) | 26.8% (41, -23R) |
| 2020 | 10.0% (10, -8R) | 13.9% (36, +14R) | 16.7% (42, -17R) | 9.5% (42, -18R) | 14.3% (7, -2R) | 16.7% (78, -4R) | 45.2% (42, -6R) |
| 2021 | 18.2% (11, -5R) | 9.8% (41, -14R) | 26.1% (46, -2R) | 19.6% (46, -4R) | 6.2% (16, -8R) | 4.3% (69, -68R) | 56.5% (46, +4R) |
| 2022 | 0.0% (13, -14R) | 6.7% (60, -36R) | 19.0% (63, -20R) | 11.1% (63, -17R) | 0.0% (15, -16R) | 11.1% (108, -39R) | 44.4% (63, -11R) |
| 2023 | 17.6% (17, -2R) | 6.0% (50, -39R) | 13.7% (51, -29R) | 5.9% (51, -33R) | 10.0% (20, -15R) | 9.2% (87, -41R) | 29.4% (51, -26R) |
| 2024 | 60.0% (5, +14R) | 5.9% (34, -18R) | 13.2% (38, -20R) | 13.2% (38, -15R) | 6.7% (15, -4R) | 9.4% (85, -50R) | 28.9% (38, -18R) |
| 2025 | 0.0% (3, -3R) | 16.0% (25, -2R) | 15.8% (38, -16R) | 15.8% (38, -12R) | – | 11.8% (85, -22R) | 44.7% (38, -5R) |
| 2026 | – | 8.3% (12, +0R) | 23.1% (26, -3R) | 23.1% (26, +1R) | 0.0% (1, -1R) | 16.3% (43, +15R) | 53.8% (26, +2R) |

**EURUSD, all 30 variants:** highest win rate 49.1% (H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate)); best average -0.011R (ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 360; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 360 | 20.3% | 19.4% | 79.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.421 | 1.093 | 31.1% | -0.380 | 0.564 | -137 | 0.00123 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 344, 'skip_sl_too_big': 21, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 14} |
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high | 381 | 22.6% | 21.5% | 77.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.136 | 1.091 | 33.8% | -0.362 | 0.571 | -138 | 0.00129 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 344, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 14} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 659 | 10.0% | 9.1% | 90.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 7.805 | 1.188 | 13.2% | -0.287 | 0.731 | -189 | 0.00056 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_rr_below_min': 28, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 687 | 11.2% | 10.3% | 88.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 6.906 | 1.184 | 14.6% | -0.277 | 0.736 | -191 | 0.00058 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 687 | 25.6% | 25.5% | 74.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.8 | 1.214 | 30.3% | -0.186 | 0.794 | -128 | 0.00049 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 687 | 7.1% | 5.4% | 92.9% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 6.204 | 0.758 | 10.9% | -0.261 | 0.629 | -179 | 0.00049 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 engulfing · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 659 | 14.3% | 13.2% | 85.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 4.53 | 1.117 | 19.8% | -0.312 | 0.675 | -206 | 0.00085 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 432, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:2 | 687 | 34.5% | 34.5% | 65.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.838 | 1.17 | 38.9% | -0.132 | 0.827 | -91 | 0.00058 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 687 | 49.1% | 49.2% | 50.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.851 | 1.172 | 57.9% | -0.180 | 0.699 | -123 | 0.00058 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · TP last high · BE at 1R | 687 | 7.3% | 6.8% | 50.7% | 42.1% | 0.4% | 6.204 | 0.733 | 10.6% | -0.228 | 0.665 | -156 | 0.00058 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 TJL1+A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 1652 | 18.3% | 18.2% | 81.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.896 | 1.226 | 23.9% | -0.290 | 0.711 | -478 | 0.00048 | {'levels': 2322, 'skip_trend_flipped': 535, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 47, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 60} |
| H1 SBR/RBS · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 489 | 17.2% | 16.8% | 82.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 4.564 | 1.263 | 21.7% | -0.262 | 0.75 | -128 | 0.00042 | {'levels': 603, 'skip_trend_flipped': 106, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 2} |
| H1 A+ · loose 2-candle rule · M5 candle · TP last high | 861 | 12.2% | 11.4% | 87.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 6.057 | 1.196 | 16.5% | -0.311 | 0.704 | -268 | 0.00057 | {'levels': 1452, 'skip_trend_flipped': 533, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 33} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 226 | 11.9% | 10.2% | 88.1% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 8.677 | 1.19 | 12.1% | -0.011 | 0.989 | -3 | 0.00058 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_outside_session': 587, 'skip_trend_flipped': 197, 'skip_htf_bias': 109, 'skip_rr_below_min': 9, 'skip_sl_too_big': 2, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 9} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1310 | 12.7% | 10.2% | 87.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.872 | 1.235 | 17.4% | -0.329 | 0.695 | -431 | 0.00045 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1542, 'skip_htf_bias': 682, 'skip_rr_below_min': 167, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 5, 'dup_same_entry': 108} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M1 candle · SL min(30p,candle)<=40p · half@1R + rest@100p | 1594 | 3.8% | 1.7% | 96.2% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 11.929 | 1.157 | 8.8% | -0.656 | 0.41 | -1046 | 0.00022 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1481, 'skip_htf_bias': 726, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 82} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · 1:3 | 1474 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 78.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 2.683 | 1.217 | 31.2% | -0.365 | 0.616 | -538 | 0.00049 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1542, 'skip_htf_bias': 682, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 116} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · no bias filter (old levels kept) | 687 | 11.2% | 10.3% | 88.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 6.906 | 1.184 | 14.6% | -0.277 | 0.736 | -191 | 0.00058 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap +10p · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 470 | 13.8% | 10.6% | 86.2% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.866 | 1.058 | 21.5% | -0.377 | 0.587 | -177 | 0.00158 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_rr_below_min': 219, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 22} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p, candle+10p) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 687 | 23.3% | 22.3% | 76.6% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.878 | 1.058 | 26.9% | -0.141 | 0.826 | -97 | 0.00149 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 428, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 24} |
| H1 QML (post-CHoCH A+) · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 243 | 8.6% | 8.2% | 91.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 9.405 | 1.182 | 11.2% | -0.267 | 0.753 | -65 | 0.00061 | {'levels': 457, 'skip_trend_flipped': 196, 'skip_rr_below_min': 7, 'dup_same_entry': 2} |
| H1 A+ first tap only (confirm within 1h) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 619 | 10.3% | 9.4% | 89.7% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 7.783 | 1.187 | 13.2% | -0.259 | 0.756 | -160 | 0.00056 | {'levels': 1161, 'skip_trend_flipped': 395, 'skip_rr_below_min': 26, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 20} |
| H1 all coded levels (TJL1, A+, SBR/RBS, QML) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 1920 | 12.1% | 11.7% | 87.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 6.743 | 1.24 | 15.5% | -0.271 | 0.751 | -521 | 0.00045 | {'levels': 3382, 'skip_trend_flipped': 837, 'skip_rr_below_min': 432, 'skip_sl_too_big': 1, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 48, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 101} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 2353 | 45.5% | 40.2% | 51.8% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 1.062 | 1.001 | 48.5% | -0.063 | 0.885 | -148 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1453, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 27, 'dup_same_entry': 53} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 2353 | 31.4% | 14.5% | 64.0% | 0.0% | 21.5% | 1.913 | 0.988 | 34.1% | -0.078 | 0.885 | -184 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1453, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 27, 'dup_same_entry': 53} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 2353 | 35.2% | 26.1% | 60.7% | 0.0% | 13.3% | 1.625 | 0.991 | 37.9% | -0.071 | 0.89 | -166 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1453, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 27, 'dup_same_entry': 53} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 2353 | 48.7% | 46.0% | 48.5% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 0.937 | 1.0 | 51.6% | -0.057 | 0.888 | -135 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1453, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 27, 'dup_same_entry': 53} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 2341 | 40.5% | 36.2% | 58.1% | 0.0% | 5.7% | 1.308 | 1.024 | 43.9% | -0.080 | 0.869 | -186 | 0.002 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1443, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 50, 'dup_same_entry': 52} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 2353 | 45.5% | 40.2% | 51.8% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 1.062 | 1.001 | 48.5% | -0.063 | 0.885 | -148 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1453, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 27, 'dup_same_entry': 53} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 3775 | 31.9% | 15.9% | 62.9% | 0.0% | 21.2% | 1.971 | 0.983 | 33.3% | -0.040 | 0.941 | -150 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3919, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 27, 'dup_same_entry': 84} |

</details>

EURUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 20.3% | -0.380 | 20.3% | -0.28 | 0.649 | 20.3% | -0.38 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 10.0% | -0.287 | 10.3% | 0.048 | 1.053 | 10.3% | -0.214 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 25.6% | -0.186 | 28.8% | 0.147 | 1.206 | 26.6% | -0.144 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 7.1% | -0.261 | 7.4% | 0.136 | 1.295 | 7.3% | -0.229 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 11.9% | -0.011 | 12.3% | 0.354 | 1.401 | 12.4% | 0.033 |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 12.7% | -0.329 | 13.1% | 0.027 | 1.031 | 12.7% | -0.329 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 49.1% | -0.180 | 53.0% | 0.059 | 1.126 | 49.9% | -0.162 |

EURUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 6.7% (15, -12R) | 2.7% (37, -28R) | 17.5% (40, -17R) | 2.5% (40, -25R) | 6.7% (15, -4R) | 8.5% (82, -64R) | 35.0% (40, -15R) |
| 2016 | 17.9% (28, -17R) | 8.5% (47, -26R) | 27.5% (51, -2R) | 7.8% (51, -19R) | 13.3% (15, +2R) | 13.4% (82, -16R) | 45.1% (51, -11R) |
| 2017 | 28.1% (32, -14R) | 11.9% (59, -12R) | 36.1% (61, +13R) | 8.2% (61, -20R) | 12.0% (25, -6R) | 15.1% (126, -10R) | 60.7% (61, +5R) |
| 2018 | 13.2% (38, -26R) | 3.9% (76, -60R) | 20.8% (77, -28R) | 5.2% (77, -30R) | 3.7% (27, -22R) | 9.7% (134, -70R) | 45.5% (77, -19R) |
| 2019 | 22.9% (35, -9R) | 7.7% (52, -27R) | 16.7% (54, -32R) | 1.9% (54, -28R) | 7.1% (14, -12R) | 12.3% (114, -38R) | 48.1% (54, -13R) |
| 2020 | 25.6% (39, -12R) | 12.3% (65, -26R) | 32.8% (67, +6R) | 6.0% (67, -8R) | 15.0% (20, -7R) | 12.8% (125, -18R) | 56.7% (67, -2R) |
| 2021 | 18.8% (32, -20R) | 15.5% (58, +37R) | 22.6% (62, -24R) | 9.7% (62, +26R) | 15.0% (20, +44R) | 12.0% (125, -80R) | 40.3% (62, -24R) |
| 2022 | 16.0% (25, +15R) | 13.8% (58, +16R) | 23.3% (60, -13R) | 13.3% (60, +9R) | 20.0% (20, +21R) | 15.3% (111, -8R) | 46.7% (60, -11R) |
| 2023 | 24.1% (29, -10R) | 8.1% (62, -34R) | 23.4% (64, -17R) | 7.8% (64, -24R) | 8.7% (23, -13R) | 11.6% (121, -42R) | 48.4% (64, -12R) |
| 2024 | 24.1% (29, -12R) | 6.0% (50, -51R) | 21.2% (52, -23R) | 3.8% (52, -32R) | 9.5% (21, -17R) | 12.5% (104, -27R) | 46.2% (52, -16R) |
| 2025 | 20.0% (40, -16R) | 18.5% (54, +49R) | 35.1% (57, +12R) | 10.5% (57, -11R) | 17.6% (17, +14R) | 13.5% (111, -66R) | 63.2% (57, +6R) |
| 2026 | 16.7% (18, -3R) | 9.8% (41, -29R) | 28.6% (42, -3R) | 7.1% (42, -17R) | 22.2% (9, -4R) | 17.3% (75, +10R) | 47.6% (42, -10R) |

**GBPUSD, all 30 variants:** highest win rate 49.9% (STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1); best average +0.175R (H1 QML (post-CHoCH A+) · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 360; variants with a positive average R after costs: 2.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 322 | 23.0% | 20.8% | 77.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 2.922 | 1.101 | 27.4% | -0.176 | 0.792 | -57 | 0.00157 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 359, 'skip_sl_too_big': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 8} |
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high | 365 | 26.8% | 24.1% | 73.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.455 | 1.095 | 30.8% | -0.142 | 0.823 | -52 | 0.00178 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 359, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 13} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 610 | 10.7% | 9.5% | 89.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 9.112 | 1.16 | 11.3% | -0.066 | 0.937 | -40 | 0.00075 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'skip_rr_below_min': 20, 'skip_sl_too_big': 4, 'dup_same_entry': 23} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 632 | 10.9% | 9.8% | 89.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 8.684 | 1.157 | 11.8% | -0.082 | 0.92 | -52 | 0.00076 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 632 | 21.4% | 21.4% | 78.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.877 | 1.177 | 29.0% | -0.311 | 0.664 | -196 | 0.00064 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 632 | 7.1% | 6.8% | 92.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 6.292 | 0.822 | 11.6% | -0.316 | 0.587 | -200 | 0.00064 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 A+ · M5 engulfing · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 606 | 17.5% | 15.7% | 82.5% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 5.533 | 1.101 | 16.6% | +0.059 | 1.065 | +36 | 0.00121 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 464, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 32} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:2 | 632 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 71.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.895 | 1.14 | 37.6% | -0.271 | 0.667 | -171 | 0.00076 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 632 | 42.6% | 42.6% | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.899 | 1.149 | 56.1% | -0.277 | 0.58 | -175 | 0.00076 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · TP last high · BE at 1R | 632 | 5.9% | 5.2% | 57.4% | 36.7% | 0.6% | 6.994 | 0.748 | 9.7% | -0.295 | 0.581 | -186 | 0.00076 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 TJL1+A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 1582 | 16.1% | 16.0% | 83.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 4.334 | 1.165 | 21.2% | -0.279 | 0.715 | -441 | 0.00064 | {'levels': 2282, 'skip_trend_flipped': 558, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 43, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 60} |
| H1 SBR/RBS · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 455 | 17.6% | 17.4% | 82.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.934 | 1.187 | 23.2% | -0.286 | 0.707 | -130 | 0.00063 | {'levels': 540, 'skip_trend_flipped': 71, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 6} |
| H1 A+ · loose 2-candle rule · M5 candle · TP last high | 840 | 11.3% | 10.5% | 88.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 7.417 | 1.181 | 13.7% | -0.209 | 0.801 | -176 | 0.00075 | {'levels': 1479, 'skip_trend_flipped': 566, 'dup_same_entry': 42} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 200 | 7.0% | 5.5% | 93.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 9.715 | 1.126 | 10.4% | -0.367 | 0.65 | -73 | 0.00079 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_outside_session': 612, 'skip_trend_flipped': 192, 'skip_htf_bias': 89, 'skip_sl_too_big': 1, 'skip_rr_below_min': 6, 'dup_same_entry': 9} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1212 | 12.0% | 9.7% | 87.8% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 5.504 | 1.168 | 17.5% | -0.364 | 0.645 | -442 | 0.00064 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1532, 'skip_rr_below_min': 150, 'skip_htf_bias': 649, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'skip_sl_too_big': 5, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 93} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M1 candle · SL min(30p,candle)<=40p · half@1R + rest@100p | 1479 | 4.3% | 2.4% | 95.7% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 7.689 | 1.08 | 12.3% | -0.706 | 0.317 | -1045 | 0.00032 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1483, 'skip_htf_bias': 685, 'dup_same_entry': 74} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · 1:3 | 1359 | 21.9% | 21.1% | 78.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 2.814 | 1.16 | 29.2% | -0.289 | 0.681 | -392 | 0.00068 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1532, 'skip_htf_bias': 649, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 103} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · no bias filter (old levels kept) | 632 | 10.9% | 9.8% | 89.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 8.684 | 1.157 | 11.8% | -0.082 | 0.92 | -52 | 0.00076 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 450, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap +10p · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 511 | 19.0% | 16.0% | 80.6% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 4.504 | 1.055 | 19.0% | +0.000 | 1.0 | +0 | 0.00174 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'skip_rr_below_min': 124, 'skip_sl_too_big': 4, 'dup_same_entry': 18} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p, candle+10p) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 632 | 23.4% | 23.4% | 76.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.959 | 1.053 | 26.3% | -0.114 | 0.859 | -72 | 0.00164 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 452, 'dup_same_entry': 25} |
| H1 QML (post-CHoCH A+) · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 216 | 11.6% | 10.2% | 88.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 10.197 | 1.136 | 10.0% | +0.175 | 1.175 | +38 | 0.00079 | {'levels': 413, 'skip_trend_flipped': 173, 'skip_sl_too_big': 1, 'skip_rr_below_min': 7, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1} |
| H1 A+ first tap only (confirm within 1h) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 558 | 10.4% | 9.3% | 89.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 9.071 | 1.163 | 11.4% | -0.099 | 0.905 | -55 | 0.00075 | {'levels': 1141, 'skip_trend_flipped': 408, 'skip_rr_below_min': 19, 'skip_sl_too_big': 4, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 all coded levels (TJL1, A+, SBR/RBS, QML) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 1765 | 11.4% | 10.7% | 88.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 7.318 | 1.179 | 13.9% | -0.211 | 0.798 | -372 | 0.00062 | {'levels': 3235, 'skip_rr_below_min': 467, 'skip_trend_flipped': 802, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 50, 'skip_sl_too_big': 5, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 84} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 2175 | 38.0% | 33.8% | 60.3% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 1.481 | 1.015 | 40.7% | -0.066 | 0.895 | -143 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1443, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 54} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 2175 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 69.7% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 2.364 | 1.012 | 30.0% | -0.067 | 0.908 | -146 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1443, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 54} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 2175 | 33.7% | 29.2% | 64.4% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 1.799 | 1.015 | 36.1% | -0.066 | 0.901 | -144 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1443, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 54} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 2175 | 49.9% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.955 | 1.016 | 51.6% | -0.032 | 0.937 | -70 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1443, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 54} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 2148 | 33.2% | 29.5% | 65.7% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 1.806 | 1.034 | 36.4% | -0.091 | 0.868 | -196 | 0.002 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1423, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 97, 'dup_same_entry': 53} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 2175 | 38.0% | 33.8% | 60.3% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 1.481 | 1.015 | 40.7% | -0.066 | 0.895 | -143 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1443, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 54} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 3595 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 69.5% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 2.361 | 1.011 | 30.0% | -0.066 | 0.909 | -238 | 0.0025 | {'levels': 3776, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 49, 'dup_same_entry': 77} |

</details>

GBPUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 23.0% | -0.176 | 24.2% | -0.019 | 0.976 | 23.3% | -0.173 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 10.7% | -0.066 | 10.9% | 0.182 | 1.2 | 10.7% | -0.066 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 21.4% | -0.311 | 24.6% | -0.017 | 0.977 | 21.8% | -0.292 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 7.1% | -0.316 | 7.6% | -0.022 | 0.959 | 7.1% | -0.305 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 7.0% | -0.367 | 7.5% | -0.19 | 0.794 | 7.0% | -0.367 |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 12.0% | -0.364 | 13.3% | 0.015 | 1.017 | 12.0% | -0.364 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 42.6% | -0.277 | 48.8% | -0.024 | 0.954 | 42.9% | -0.271 |

GBPUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 15.2% (33, -15R) | 5.2% (58, -14R) | 18.0% (61, -24R) | 3.3% (61, -30R) | 0.0% (18, -20R) | 12.1% (99, -43R) | 39.3% (61, -18R) |
| 2016 | 16.0% (25, -8R) | 10.0% (50, -10R) | 18.9% (53, -20R) | 11.3% (53, -17R) | 16.7% (12, -1R) | 15.7% (89, -6R) | 47.2% (53, -8R) |
| 2017 | 31.6% (19, +2R) | 8.6% (35, -13R) | 18.9% (37, -15R) | 5.4% (37, -10R) | 12.5% (8, -2R) | 14.3% (98, -17R) | 48.6% (37, -5R) |
| 2018 | 24.1% (29, +5R) | 16.9% (65, +5R) | 27.7% (65, -1R) | 12.3% (65, -9R) | 8.0% (25, -12R) | 12.8% (94, -44R) | 50.8% (65, -5R) |
| 2019 | 37.5% (24, +10R) | 16.7% (42, +13R) | 24.4% (45, -8R) | 8.9% (45, -18R) | 6.7% (15, -12R) | 13.7% (73, -12R) | 44.4% (45, -9R) |
| 2020 | 18.8% (32, -14R) | 11.1% (54, -18R) | 22.2% (54, -13R) | 5.6% (54, -27R) | 0.0% (20, -22R) | 13.8% (123, -44R) | 53.7% (54, -1R) |
| 2021 | 19.2% (26, -1R) | 10.7% (56, +7R) | 21.1% (57, -22R) | 7.0% (57, -16R) | 5.9% (17, -2R) | 6.5% (107, -80R) | 35.1% (57, -27R) |
| 2022 | 17.9% (28, -10R) | 9.8% (51, +12R) | 22.6% (53, -12R) | 9.4% (53, +7R) | 4.8% (21, -16R) | 14.0% (100, -20R) | 47.2% (53, -8R) |
| 2023 | 25.0% (24, -2R) | 11.5% (52, -4R) | 19.2% (52, -22R) | 5.8% (52, -28R) | 11.1% (18, -6R) | 6.9% (116, -69R) | 36.5% (52, -22R) |
| 2024 | 33.3% (27, -1R) | 6.1% (49, -14R) | 19.6% (51, -21R) | 5.9% (51, -17R) | 6.2% (16, -3R) | 12.6% (119, -30R) | 39.2% (51, -20R) |
| 2025 | 29.0% (31, -7R) | 12.3% (57, -3R) | 24.6% (61, -12R) | 4.9% (61, -10R) | 5.3% (19, -10R) | 11.7% (120, -31R) | 39.3% (61, -22R) |
| 2026 | 12.5% (24, -17R) | 7.3% (41, -0R) | 16.3% (43, -27R) | 4.7% (43, -25R) | 18.2% (11, +30R) | 12.2% (74, -45R) | 27.9% (43, -28R) |

**USDJPY, all 30 variants:** highest win rate 47.5% (STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1); best average -0.017R (H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 360; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 338 | 23.4% | 22.2% | 76.6% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 3.297 | 1.081 | 24.7% | -0.058 | 0.93 | -20 | 0.141 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 319, 'skip_sl_too_big': 19, 'dup_same_entry': 11} |
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high | 356 | 25.3% | 24.2% | 74.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 3.123 | 1.079 | 25.7% | -0.017 | 0.979 | -6 | 0.14725 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 319, 'dup_same_entry': 12} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 610 | 8.2% | 7.2% | 91.8% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 7.767 | 1.157 | 13.0% | -0.426 | 0.599 | -260 | 0.06713 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'skip_rr_below_min': 33, 'skip_sl_too_big': 5, 'dup_same_entry': 15} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 642 | 9.7% | 8.6% | 90.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 6.516 | 1.153 | 15.0% | -0.412 | 0.604 | -265 | 0.07025 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 642 | 22.4% | 22.3% | 77.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.829 | 1.181 | 29.5% | -0.282 | 0.693 | -181 | 0.0595 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 642 | 5.9% | 4.7% | 94.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 6.185 | 0.808 | 11.6% | -0.394 | 0.481 | -253 | 0.0595 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 A+ · M5 engulfing · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 617 | 14.1% | 12.5% | 85.7% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 5.116 | 1.097 | 17.7% | -0.221 | 0.766 | -136 | 0.104 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 406, 'dup_same_entry': 41} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:2 | 642 | 28.8% | 28.7% | 71.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.856 | 1.146 | 38.2% | -0.281 | 0.656 | -180 | 0.07025 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 642 | 41.6% | 41.6% | 58.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.874 | 1.148 | 56.8% | -0.307 | 0.542 | -197 | 0.07025 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · TP last high · BE at 1R | 642 | 6.1% | 5.8% | 58.1% | 35.8% | 0.3% | 5.863 | 0.773 | 11.6% | -0.370 | 0.49 | -238 | 0.07025 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 TJL1+A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 1570 | 17.3% | 17.2% | 82.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.513 | 1.193 | 25.3% | -0.380 | 0.615 | -597 | 0.057 | {'levels': 2232, 'skip_trend_flipped': 507, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 42, 'dup_same_entry': 60} |
| H1 SBR/RBS · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high | 445 | 16.2% | 15.7% | 83.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 3.865 | 1.247 | 24.4% | -0.420 | 0.598 | -187 | 0.0505 | {'levels': 538, 'skip_trend_flipped': 86, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1} |
| H1 A+ · loose 2-candle rule · M5 candle · TP last high | 805 | 10.7% | 10.1% | 89.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 7.11 | 1.155 | 14.0% | -0.272 | 0.736 | -219 | 0.068 | {'levels': 1398, 'skip_trend_flipped': 512, 'dup_same_entry': 37} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 195 | 8.7% | 7.2% | 91.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 6.97 | 1.139 | 14.0% | -0.432 | 0.584 | -84 | 0.0765 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_outside_session': 544, 'skip_htf_bias': 99, 'skip_trend_flipped': 214, 'skip_sl_too_big': 9, 'skip_rr_below_min': 6, 'dup_same_entry': 5} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1207 | 11.3% | 9.4% | 88.6% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 6.144 | 1.198 | 16.3% | -0.371 | 0.651 | -448 | 0.0555 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1503, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'skip_htf_bias': 666, 'skip_rr_below_min': 199, 'skip_sl_too_big': 7, 'dup_same_entry': 87} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M1 candle · SL min(30p,candle)<=40p · half@1R + rest@100p | 1526 | 4.1% | 2.0% | 95.9% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 10.191 | 1.014 | 9.0% | -0.551 | 0.433 | -841 | 0.027 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1439, 'skip_htf_bias': 716, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'dup_same_entry': 67} |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · 1:3 | 1394 | 22.5% | 21.2% | 77.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 2.775 | 1.181 | 29.9% | -0.293 | 0.68 | -408 | 0.06 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1503, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 2, 'skip_htf_bias': 666, 'dup_same_entry': 106} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · no bias filter (old levels kept) | 642 | 9.7% | 8.6% | 90.3% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 6.516 | 1.153 | 15.0% | -0.412 | 0.604 | -265 | 0.07025 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap +10p · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 489 | 16.0% | 13.3% | 83.8% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 4.057 | 1.065 | 20.8% | -0.248 | 0.723 | -121 | 0.1695 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_rr_below_min': 158, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'skip_sl_too_big': 5, 'dup_same_entry': 11} |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p, candle+10p) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 642 | 22.1% | 21.3% | 77.9% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 2.914 | 1.068 | 26.8% | -0.187 | 0.775 | -120 | 0.1595 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 409, 'dup_same_entry': 21} |
| H1 QML (post-CHoCH A+) · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 200 | 9.0% | 8.5% | 91.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 11.509 | 1.184 | 9.3% | -0.041 | 0.962 | -8 | 0.0585 | {'levels': 408, 'skip_trend_flipped': 177, 'skip_rr_below_min': 8, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1, 'dup_same_entry': 1} |
| H1 A+ first tap only (confirm within 1h) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 555 | 8.5% | 7.4% | 91.5% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 7.88 | 1.155 | 12.8% | -0.390 | 0.631 | -216 | 0.068 | {'levels': 1116, 'skip_trend_flipped': 375, 'skip_rr_below_min': 32, 'skip_sl_too_big': 5, 'dup_same_entry': 12} |
| H1 all coded levels (TJL1, A+, SBR/RBS, QML) · M5 candle · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 1758 | 10.2% | 9.7% | 89.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 6.938 | 1.216 | 14.9% | -0.386 | 0.647 | -679 | 0.052 | {'levels': 3178, 'skip_rr_below_min': 446, 'skip_trend_flipped': 770, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 44, 'skip_sl_too_big': 10, 'dup_same_entry': 70} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 2232 | 38.3% | 33.4% | 57.9% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 1.318 | 0.992 | 42.9% | -0.107 | 0.825 | -239 | 0.25 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1375, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 78, 'dup_same_entry': 65} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 2232 | 28.9% | 16.8% | 65.9% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 2.161 | 0.983 | 31.3% | -0.076 | 0.891 | -170 | 0.25 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1375, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 78, 'dup_same_entry': 65} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 2232 | 33.9% | 27.2% | 61.1% | 0.0% | 11.6% | 1.705 | 0.981 | 36.5% | -0.071 | 0.89 | -159 | 0.25 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1375, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 78, 'dup_same_entry': 65} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 2232 | 47.5% | 45.2% | 49.3% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 0.938 | 0.991 | 51.4% | -0.075 | 0.856 | -167 | 0.25 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1375, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 78, 'dup_same_entry': 65} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 2212 | 33.5% | 29.3% | 64.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 1.607 | 1.017 | 38.8% | -0.139 | 0.794 | -308 | 0.2 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_trend_flipped': 1350, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 124, 'dup_same_entry': 64} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 2232 | 38.3% | 33.4% | 57.9% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 1.318 | 0.992 | 42.9% | -0.107 | 0.825 | -239 | 0.25 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_no_room_to_target': 1375, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 78, 'dup_same_entry': 65} |
| STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 3574 | 29.5% | 17.2% | 65.9% | 0.0% | 16.9% | 2.157 | 0.988 | 31.4% | -0.061 | 0.913 | -217 | 0.25 | {'levels': 3822, 'skip_zone_too_wide': 78, 'dup_same_entry': 98} |

</details>

USDJPY, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 23.4% | -0.058 | 24.0% | 0.075 | 1.098 | 23.4% | -0.058 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 8.2% | -0.426 | 8.3% | -0.23 | 0.749 | 8.2% | -0.426 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 22.4% | -0.282 | 25.5% | 0.02 | 1.027 | 22.4% | -0.282 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 5.9% | -0.394 | 6.2% | -0.084 | 0.844 | 5.9% | -0.389 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 8.7% | -0.432 | 8.7% | -0.24 | 0.737 | 8.7% | -0.432 |
| M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 11.3% | -0.371 | 12.5% | -0.034 | 0.962 | 11.4% | -0.361 |
| H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 41.6% | -0.307 | 45.3% | -0.095 | 0.826 | 41.7% | -0.304 |

USDJPY, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 13.6% (22, -5R) | 4.1% (49, -31R) | 14.8% (54, -30R) | 1.9% (54, -35R) | 8.3% (12, +0R) | 11.3% (97, -16R) | 37.0% (54, -20R) |
| 2016 | 18.8% (16, +4R) | 5.3% (38, -18R) | 18.4% (38, -14R) | 2.6% (38, -21R) | 11.1% (9, -3R) | 7.6% (105, -65R) | 39.5% (38, -11R) |
| 2017 | 23.7% (38, +13R) | 10.6% (66, +7R) | 22.1% (68, -20R) | 4.4% (68, -17R) | 4.5% (22, -18R) | 9.5% (137, -48R) | 41.2% (68, -21R) |
| 2018 | 18.9% (37, -10R) | 5.9% (68, -46R) | 22.5% (71, -27R) | 2.8% (71, -36R) | 9.5% (21, -15R) | 11.0% (136, -66R) | 46.5% (71, -17R) |
| 2019 | 28.9% (38, +0R) | 8.2% (61, -39R) | 25.4% (63, -17R) | 4.8% (63, -44R) | 0.0% (21, -26R) | 13.0% (92, -48R) | 36.5% (63, -31R) |
| 2020 | 25.0% (24, +2R) | 13.3% (45, +13R) | 24.5% (49, -14R) | 8.2% (49, +3R) | 22.2% (18, +22R) | 16.7% (102, +18R) | 34.7% (49, -24R) |
| 2021 | 41.7% (24, +8R) | 11.1% (45, -28R) | 19.6% (46, -23R) | 6.5% (46, -26R) | 7.1% (14, -14R) | 10.6% (94, -41R) | 39.1% (46, -21R) |
| 2022 | 22.7% (22, -5R) | 7.1% (42, -17R) | 25.0% (44, -5R) | 9.1% (44, -14R) | 0.0% (8, -9R) | 16.2% (74, +0R) | 40.9% (44, -12R) |
| 2023 | 8.8% (34, -29R) | 2.0% (51, -44R) | 12.5% (56, -34R) | 3.6% (56, -28R) | 5.0% (20, -10R) | 13.0% (100, -38R) | 44.6% (56, -12R) |
| 2024 | 40.9% (22, +20R) | 9.4% (53, -17R) | 23.6% (55, -8R) | 10.9% (55, -15R) | 14.3% (21, +3R) | 6.1% (98, -76R) | 47.3% (55, -7R) |
| 2025 | 18.6% (43, -14R) | 10.1% (69, -38R) | 31.0% (71, +8R) | 9.9% (71, -10R) | 5.0% (20, -17R) | 10.6% (123, -43R) | 46.5% (71, -12R) |
| 2026 | 27.8% (18, -5R) | 13.0% (23, -1R) | 29.6% (27, +2R) | 7.4% (27, -10R) | 22.2% (9, +2R) | 12.2% (49, -25R) | 40.7% (27, -7R) |

## Fibonacci golden zone

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | /week | Win rate (95% CI) | Full target | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Total R | Max DD (R) | Longest losing run | $10k fixed $100/trade | Years ≥70% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 213 | 0.35 | 20.2% (15.3–26.1) | 20.2% | -0.115 | 0.865 | 22.6% | -25 | 44.4 | 24 | $7,541 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 242 | 0.39 | 8.7% (5.7–12.9) | 8.7% | -0.558 | 0.446 | 17.6% | -135 | 140.9 | 30 | blown 2022-03-08 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2514 | 4.1 | 10.5% (9.4–11.8) | 10.5% | -0.837 | 0.264 | 30.8% | -2105 | 2105.4 | 71 | blown 2015-06-02 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 242 | 0.39 | 16.5% (12.4–21.7) | 16.5% | -0.432 | 0.529 | 27.2% | -105 | 109.6 | 17 | blown 2024-09-19 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 231 | 0.38 | 16.9% (12.6–22.2) | 16.9% | -0.285 | 0.682 | 23.0% | -66 | 68.5 | 20 | $3,422 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 261 | 0.43 | 11.1% (7.8–15.5) | 10.7% | -0.273 | 0.746 | 14.4% | -71 | 82.2 | 29 | $2,868 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2575 | 4.2 | 12.3% (11.1–13.7) | 12.5% | -0.994 | 0.319 | 30.7% | -2560 | 2559.7 | 47 | blown 2015-04-30 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 261 | 0.43 | 21.1% (16.6–26.4) | 21.1% | -0.356 | 0.626 | 29.9% | -93 | 97.9 | 25 | $718 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 221 | 0.36 | 23.1% (18.0–29.1) | 23.1% | +0.031 | 1.038 | 22.4% | +7 | 34.7 | 19 | $10,681 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 252 | 0.41 | 9.1% (6.2–13.3) | 9.1% | -0.470 | 0.55 | 15.4% | -118 | 125.0 | 49 | blown 2025-01-27 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2468 | 4.03 | 9.9% (8.8–11.2) | 9.9% | -0.940 | 0.288 | 27.7% | -2321 | 2320.7 | 47 | blown 2015-08-27 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 252 | 0.41 | 15.9% (11.9–20.9) | 15.9% | -0.510 | 0.471 | 28.6% | -128 | 130.2 | 27 | blown 2022-11-08 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 184 | 0.3 | 17.9% (13.1–24.1) | 17.9% | -0.233 | 0.736 | 22.9% | -43 | 55.8 | 20 | $5,710 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 204 | 0.33 | 11.3% (7.6–16.3) | 11.3% | -0.044 | 0.96 | 11.7% | -9 | 65.1 | 36 | $9,104 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2267 | 3.7 | 13.1% (11.7–14.5) | 12.9% | -0.790 | 0.416 | 26.5% | -1790 | 1790.4 | 37 | blown 2016-01-18 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 204 | 0.33 | 25.5% (20.0–31.9) | 25.5% | -0.173 | 0.806 | 29.8% | -35 | 45.2 | 19 | $6,477 | 0 of 12 |

**XAUUSD, all 15 variants:** highest win rate 24.4% (H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend); best average -0.083R (H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 179; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 213 | 20.2% | 20.2% | 79.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.66 | 1.07 | 22.6% | -0.115 | 0.865 | -25 | 3.63048 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_against_trend': 193, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme | 295 | 19.7% | 19.7% | 80.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.66 | 1.064 | 22.5% | -0.135 | 0.842 | -40 | 3.49944 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 9} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 242 | 8.7% | 8.7% | 91.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.17 | 1.103 | 17.6% | -0.558 | 0.446 | -135 | 1.493 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_against_trend': 193, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 14} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 330 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 91.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.134 | 1.107 | 17.7% | -0.596 | 0.413 | -197 | 1.4435 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 9, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 16} |
| H1 M5-confirm(engulf) tgt=extreme trend | 232 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 90.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.508 | 1.11 | 16.8% | -0.483 | 0.52 | -112 | 1.348 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_against_trend': 193, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 10, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 242 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 83.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.944 | 1.101 | 27.2% | -0.432 | 0.529 | -105 | 1.493 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_against_trend': 193, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 14} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:2 trend | 242 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 78.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.946 | 1.102 | 36.2% | -0.435 | 0.495 | -105 | 1.493 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_against_trend': 193, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 14} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend | 213 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 75.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.98 | 1.072 | 26.5% | -0.083 | 0.898 | -18 | 3.63048 | {'impulses': 903, 'skip_against_trend': 193, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=3ATR | 600 | 14.0% | 14.0% | 86.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.583 | 1.12 | 19.6% | -0.322 | 0.666 | -193 | 1.385 | {'impulses': 2078, 'skip_against_trend': 613, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 24, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 23} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=6ATR | 31 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 93.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.376 | 1.082 | 24.3% | -0.794 | 0.215 | -25 | 1.93 | {'impulses': 145, 'skip_against_trend': 10, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 4} |
| M5 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 2062 | 12.2% | 11.8% | 87.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.541 | 1.159 | 24.7% | -0.587 | 0.423 | -1210 | 0.93072 | {'impulses': 10042, 'skip_against_trend': 4344, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 27} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2514 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 89.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.862 | 1.272 | 30.8% | -0.837 | 0.264 | -2105 | 0.647 | {'impulses': 10042, 'skip_against_trend': 4344, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 36, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 27, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 4401 | 10.1% | 10.2% | 89.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.753 | 1.273 | 31.6% | -0.866 | 0.243 | -3810 | 0.64 | {'impulses': 10042, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 62, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 3, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 40} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 2516 | 10.9% | 10.9% | 89.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.925 | 1.272 | 30.3% | -0.816 | 0.28 | -2054 | 0.647 | {'impulses': 10042, 'skip_against_trend': 4344, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 36, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 27} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, max 2/day | 2358 | 10.2% | 10.3% | 89.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.787 | 1.274 | 31.4% | -0.859 | 0.249 | -2025 | 0.643 | {'impulses': 10042, 'skip_against_trend': 4344, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 36, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 27, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |

</details>

XAUUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 20.2% | -0.115 | 21.8% | -0.005 | 0.993 | 20.7% | -0.094 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 8.7% | -0.558 | 11.3% | -0.082 | 0.908 | 9.5% | -0.478 |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 10.5% | -0.837 | 15.9% | 0.069 | 1.082 | 12.1% | -0.724 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 16.5% | -0.432 | 22.5% | -0.099 | 0.872 | 17.8% | -0.382 |

XAUUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 15.8% (19, -12R) | 12.0% (25, -13R) | 8.8% (239, -234R) | 16.0% (25, -12R) |
| 2016 | 7.7% (13, -9R) | 6.7% (15, -8R) | 12.4% (242, -193R) | 26.7% (15, -1R) |
| 2017 | 15.8% (19, -6R) | 10.0% (20, -10R) | 8.6% (243, -266R) | 10.0% (20, -15R) |
| 2018 | 20.0% (15, -2R) | 5.6% (18, -16R) | 10.0% (240, -244R) | 22.2% (18, -5R) |
| 2019 | 15.8% (19, -6R) | 13.0% (23, -11R) | 8.4% (237, -255R) | 17.4% (23, -10R) |
| 2020 | 35.3% (17, +11R) | 0.0% (18, -19R) | 13.3% (203, -144R) | 16.7% (18, -7R) |
| 2021 | 22.2% (18, +0R) | 4.8% (21, -18R) | 7.8% (192, -177R) | 9.5% (21, -15R) |
| 2022 | 22.7% (22, +1R) | 8.7% (23, -9R) | 10.4% (173, -126R) | 13.0% (23, -13R) |
| 2023 | 7.4% (27, -18R) | 3.7% (27, -22R) | 9.3% (194, -158R) | 14.8% (27, -14R) |
| 2024 | 22.2% (18, +0R) | 10.5% (19, +1R) | 13.3% (218, -125R) | 10.5% (19, -12R) |
| 2025 | 40.0% (15, +13R) | 11.8% (17, -6R) | 11.5% (183, -113R) | 23.5% (17, -2R) |
| 2026 | 27.3% (11, +3R) | 18.8% (16, -5R) | 13.3% (150, -70R) | 25.0% (16, -0R) |

**EURUSD, all 15 variants:** highest win rate 29.9% (H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:2 trend); best average -0.139R (H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 180; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 231 | 16.9% | 16.9% | 83.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.612 | 1.076 | 23.0% | -0.285 | 0.682 | -66 | 0.00121 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_against_trend': 220, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme | 310 | 18.7% | 18.7% | 81.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.615 | 1.076 | 22.9% | -0.198 | 0.773 | -62 | 0.00121 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 261 | 11.1% | 10.7% | 88.9% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 7.206 | 1.208 | 14.4% | -0.273 | 0.746 | -71 | 0.00046 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_against_trend': 220, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 23, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 349 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 88.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 7.924 | 1.212 | 13.3% | -0.139 | 0.87 | -48 | 0.00045 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 34, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 7} |
| H1 M5-confirm(engulf) tgt=extreme trend | 260 | 11.2% | 10.8% | 88.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 5.874 | 1.221 | 17.2% | -0.430 | 0.604 | -112 | 0.00044 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_against_trend': 220, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 12, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 261 | 21.1% | 21.1% | 78.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.826 | 1.205 | 29.9% | -0.356 | 0.626 | -93 | 0.00046 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_against_trend': 220, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 23, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:2 trend | 261 | 29.9% | 29.9% | 70.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.834 | 1.21 | 39.7% | -0.300 | 0.646 | -78 | 0.00046 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_against_trend': 220, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 23, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend | 231 | 21.6% | 21.6% | 78.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.934 | 1.076 | 26.8% | -0.208 | 0.753 | -48 | 0.00121 | {'impulses': 953, 'skip_against_trend': 220, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=3ATR | 613 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 88.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.975 | 1.255 | 17.4% | -0.394 | 0.643 | -242 | 0.0004 | {'impulses': 2293, 'skip_against_trend': 752, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 34, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 15} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=6ATR | 28 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 96.4% | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.897 | 1.167 | 23.0% | -0.986 | 0.124 | -28 | 0.00077 | {'impulses': 120, 'skip_against_trend': 12, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 5} |
| M5 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 2231 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 82.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.371 | 1.308 | 28.0% | -0.499 | 0.539 | -1113 | 0.0003 | {'impulses': 10194, 'skip_against_trend': 4285, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 24} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2575 | 12.3% | 12.5% | 87.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.764 | 1.664 | 30.7% | -0.994 | 0.319 | -2560 | 0.00016 | {'impulses': 10194, 'skip_against_trend': 4285, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 74, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 24, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 4340 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 86.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.788 | 1.655 | 30.4% | -0.954 | 0.338 | -4142 | 0.00016 | {'impulses': 10194, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 47, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 111, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 2577 | 17.5% | 17.5% | 82.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.547 | 1.665 | 39.5% | -0.926 | 0.325 | -2387 | 0.00016 | {'impulses': 10194, 'skip_against_trend': 4285, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 74, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 24} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, max 2/day | 2415 | 12.4% | 12.5% | 87.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.676 | 1.677 | 31.3% | -1.012 | 0.311 | -2444 | 0.00016 | {'impulses': 10194, 'skip_against_trend': 4285, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 74, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 24, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |

</details>

EURUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 16.9% | -0.285 | 17.7% | -0.181 | 0.782 | 16.9% | -0.285 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 11.1% | -0.273 | 11.4% | 0.007 | 1.008 | 11.1% | -0.273 |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 12.3% | -0.994 | 14.9% | -0.08 | 0.906 | 13.4% | -0.903 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 21.1% | -0.356 | 22.8% | -0.087 | 0.887 | 21.1% | -0.356 |

EURUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 13.6% (22, -9R) | 7.4% (27, -17R) | 10.8% (223, -191R) | 25.9% (27, -2R) |
| 2016 | 10.5% (19, -12R) | 11.1% (18, -10R) | 9.7% (216, -208R) | 22.2% (18, -5R) |
| 2017 | 14.3% (21, -8R) | 0.0% (21, -26R) | 14.3% (230, -240R) | 14.3% (21, -14R) |
| 2018 | 7.1% (14, -10R) | 20.0% (20, +10R) | 14.8% (209, -177R) | 40.0% (20, +9R) |
| 2019 | 16.7% (12, -4R) | 26.7% (15, +15R) | 11.5% (208, -269R) | 33.3% (15, +2R) |
| 2020 | 24.0% (25, +1R) | 20.0% (30, +15R) | 9.4% (245, -265R) | 33.3% (30, +5R) |
| 2021 | 15.0% (20, -8R) | 0.0% (18, -23R) | 16.1% (193, -170R) | 5.6% (18, -19R) |
| 2022 | 13.0% (23, -10R) | 16.0% (25, +3R) | 10.2% (225, -228R) | 20.0% (25, -9R) |
| 2023 | 26.7% (15, +3R) | 15.0% (20, +2R) | 10.9% (211, -207R) | 15.0% (20, -12R) |
| 2024 | 21.7% (23, -2R) | 7.7% (26, -24R) | 14.4% (216, -194R) | 11.5% (26, -20R) |
| 2025 | 18.2% (22, -5R) | 4.2% (24, -18R) | 13.6% (228, -210R) | 16.7% (24, -13R) |
| 2026 | 20.0% (15, -2R) | 5.9% (17, +3R) | 13.5% (171, -200R) | 11.8% (17, -14R) |

**GBPUSD, all 15 variants:** highest win rate 29.0% (H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend); best average +0.110R (H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend); variant-years at ≥70%: 1 of 177; variants with a positive average R after costs: 3.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 221 | 23.1% | 23.1% | 76.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.636 | 1.051 | 22.4% | +0.031 | 1.038 | +7 | 0.00167 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_against_trend': 237, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 2} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme | 309 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 77.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.636 | 1.052 | 22.4% | +0.010 | 1.013 | +3 | 0.00166 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 252 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 90.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.31 | 1.151 | 15.4% | -0.470 | 0.55 | -118 | 0.00062 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_against_trend': 237, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 25, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 2} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 353 | 11.0% | 11.0% | 89.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.295 | 1.157 | 15.5% | -0.334 | 0.676 | -118 | 0.0006 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 29, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 3} |
| H1 M5-confirm(engulf) tgt=extreme trend | 244 | 13.9% | 14.3% | 85.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.539 | 1.158 | 17.3% | -0.225 | 0.774 | -55 | 0.00064 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_against_trend': 237, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 13, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 2} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 252 | 15.9% | 15.9% | 84.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.861 | 1.146 | 28.6% | -0.510 | 0.471 | -128 | 0.00062 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_against_trend': 237, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 25, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 2} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:2 trend | 252 | 23.0% | 23.0% | 77.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.866 | 1.146 | 38.1% | -0.453 | 0.487 | -114 | 0.00062 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_against_trend': 237, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 25, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 2} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend | 221 | 29.0% | 29.0% | 71.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.956 | 1.05 | 26.2% | +0.110 | 1.147 | +24 | 0.00167 | {'impulses': 980, 'skip_against_trend': 237, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 2} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=3ATR | 644 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 87.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.048 | 1.174 | 18.9% | -0.391 | 0.619 | -252 | 0.00058 | {'impulses': 2356, 'skip_against_trend': 772, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 34, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 15} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=6ATR | 22 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 90.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.907 | 1.122 | 18.6% | -0.574 | 0.437 | -13 | 0.00077 | {'impulses': 132, 'skip_against_trend': 16, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 6} |
| M5 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 2161 | 14.2% | 13.8% | 85.7% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.436 | 1.227 | 26.3% | -0.567 | 0.462 | -1225 | 0.00042 | {'impulses': 10167, 'skip_against_trend': 4299, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 36} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2468 | 9.9% | 9.9% | 89.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.823 | 1.465 | 27.7% | -0.940 | 0.288 | -2321 | 0.00024 | {'impulses': 10167, 'skip_against_trend': 4299, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 89, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 36, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 4293 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 89.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.585 | 1.465 | 29.0% | -0.918 | 0.297 | -3941 | 0.00024 | {'impulses': 10167, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 157, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 63, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 7} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 2470 | 12.8% | 12.8% | 87.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.716 | 1.467 | 35.1% | -0.930 | 0.273 | -2297 | 0.00024 | {'impulses': 10167, 'skip_against_trend': 4299, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 89, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 36} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, max 2/day | 2334 | 10.1% | 10.1% | 89.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.778 | 1.472 | 28.0% | -0.942 | 0.289 | -2198 | 0.00023 | {'impulses': 10167, 'skip_against_trend': 4299, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 89, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 36, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 2} |

</details>

GBPUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 23.1% | +0.031 | 25.6% | 0.194 | 1.261 | 23.1% | 0.031 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 9.1% | -0.470 | 10.7% | -0.143 | 0.84 | 9.1% | -0.47 |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 9.9% | -0.940 | 13.5% | -0.06 | 0.931 | 11.3% | -0.831 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 15.9% | -0.510 | 20.2% | -0.19 | 0.762 | 15.9% | -0.51 |

GBPUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 31.8% (22, +10R) | 13.6% (22, -4R) | 9.9% (202, -164R) | 18.2% (22, -9R) |
| 2016 | 20.0% (30, -3R) | 3.2% (31, -27R) | 12.7% (229, -109R) | 3.2% (31, -30R) |
| 2017 | 13.6% (22, -9R) | 4.2% (24, -25R) | 10.3% (213, -191R) | 8.3% (24, -20R) |
| 2018 | 15.8% (19, -6R) | 24.1% (29, +25R) | 8.8% (217, -227R) | 34.5% (29, +7R) |
| 2019 | 14.3% (21, -8R) | 4.5% (22, -15R) | 7.0% (243, -278R) | 9.1% (22, -17R) |
| 2020 | 31.2% (16, +7R) | 0.0% (18, -20R) | 9.6% (209, -195R) | 11.1% (18, -12R) |
| 2021 | 42.9% (14, +13R) | 16.7% (18, +9R) | 13.4% (202, -158R) | 27.8% (18, -1R) |
| 2022 | 5.6% (18, -14R) | 0.0% (19, -21R) | 6.5% (215, -217R) | 0.0% (19, -21R) |
| 2023 | 22.2% (9, -0R) | 20.0% (15, +4R) | 9.5% (179, -174R) | 13.3% (15, -9R) |
| 2024 | 19.0% (21, -4R) | 0.0% (18, -22R) | 10.2% (196, -210R) | 27.8% (18, -1R) |
| 2025 | 45.0% (20, +21R) | 12.0% (25, -15R) | 12.5% (208, -209R) | 20.0% (25, -9R) |
| 2026 | 22.2% (9, -0R) | 9.1% (11, -8R) | 9.0% (155, -188R) | 18.2% (11, -5R) |

**USDJPY, all 15 variants:** highest win rate 34.8% (H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:2 trend); best average -0.044R (H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 177; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 184 | 17.9% | 17.9% | 82.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.624 | 1.076 | 22.9% | -0.233 | 0.736 | -43 | 0.14389 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_against_trend': 200, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 4} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme | 267 | 18.0% | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.626 | 1.07 | 22.8% | -0.226 | 0.743 | -60 | 0.15305 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 6} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 204 | 11.3% | 11.3% | 88.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.279 | 1.229 | 11.7% | -0.044 | 0.96 | -9 | 0.048 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_against_trend': 200, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 21, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 4} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 296 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 89.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.959 | 1.23 | 12.1% | -0.128 | 0.883 | -38 | 0.04775 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 29, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 6} |
| H1 M5-confirm(engulf) tgt=extreme trend | 201 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 87.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.085 | 1.197 | 14.5% | -0.126 | 0.879 | -25 | 0.046 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_against_trend': 200, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 18, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 4} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 204 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 74.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.815 | 1.195 | 29.8% | -0.173 | 0.806 | -35 | 0.048 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_against_trend': 200, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 21, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 4} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:2 trend | 204 | 34.8% | 34.8% | 65.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.824 | 1.198 | 39.6% | -0.146 | 0.813 | -30 | 0.048 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_against_trend': 200, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 21, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 4} |
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 1:3 trend | 184 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 74.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.944 | 1.077 | 26.8% | -0.050 | 0.938 | -9 | 0.14389 | {'impulses': 879, 'skip_against_trend': 200, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 4} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=3ATR | 548 | 11.9% | 11.9% | 88.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.147 | 1.24 | 16.8% | -0.363 | 0.667 | -199 | 0.04563 | {'impulses': 2178, 'skip_against_trend': 635, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 13, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 44} |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, impulse>=6ATR | 20 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 95.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.771 | 1.129 | 9.5% | -0.534 | 0.502 | -11 | 0.0625 | {'impulses': 132, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 8, 'skip_against_trend': 17} |
| M5 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 1950 | 17.0% | 16.6% | 82.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.431 | 1.244 | 26.6% | -0.451 | 0.564 | -879 | 0.0383 | {'impulses': 10004, 'skip_against_trend': 4304, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 46} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2267 | 13.1% | 12.9% | 86.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.302 | 1.554 | 26.5% | -0.790 | 0.416 | -1790 | 0.0195 | {'impulses': 10004, 'skip_against_trend': 4304, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 97, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 46, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 3} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme | 4091 | 12.7% | 12.6% | 87.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.384 | 1.565 | 26.3% | -0.807 | 0.409 | -3303 | 0.019 | {'impulses': 10004, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 186, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 80, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 5} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 2270 | 19.0% | 18.9% | 81.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.597 | 1.545 | 37.3% | -0.758 | 0.394 | -1722 | 0.0195 | {'impulses': 10004, 'skip_against_trend': 4304, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 97, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 46} |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend, max 2/day | 2158 | 12.9% | 12.8% | 87.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.226 | 1.556 | 26.9% | -0.809 | 0.403 | -1745 | 0.02 | {'impulses': 10004, 'skip_against_trend': 4304, 'skip_tiny_or_negative_risk': 97, 'skip_breaker_beyond_origin': 46, 'skip_target_behind_entry': 3} |

</details>

USDJPY, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 17.9% | -0.233 | 18.8% | -0.131 | 0.841 | 18.5% | -0.208 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 11.3% | -0.044 | 12.5% | 0.367 | 1.389 | 11.3% | -0.044 |
| M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 13.1% | -0.790 | 15.7% | 0.148 | 1.175 | 14.3% | -0.672 |
| H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 25.5% | -0.173 | 30.5% | 0.219 | 1.314 | 26.0% | -0.153 |

USDJPY, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 11.8% (17, -9R) | 17.6% (17, +21R) | 15.8% (171, -93R) | 35.3% (17, +4R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% (11, -11R) | 0.0% (11, -12R) | 10.0% (190, -122R) | 9.1% (11, -8R) |
| 2017 | 22.2% (9, -0R) | 30.8% (13, +37R) | 12.8% (149, -83R) | 38.5% (13, +5R) |
| 2018 | 41.7% (12, +10R) | 0.0% (14, -17R) | 12.5% (168, -169R) | 0.0% (14, -17R) |
| 2019 | 12.5% (16, -8R) | 0.0% (18, -24R) | 10.2% (215, -257R) | 33.3% (18, +0R) |
| 2020 | 9.1% (22, -15R) | 10.7% (28, -16R) | 10.4% (211, -222R) | 32.1% (28, +1R) |
| 2021 | 23.8% (21, +1R) | 10.5% (19, -5R) | 18.5% (200, -162R) | 26.3% (19, -3R) |
| 2022 | 9.1% (11, -9R) | 29.4% (17, +36R) | 11.7% (239, -168R) | 41.2% (17, +8R) |
| 2023 | 12.5% (16, -7R) | 6.2% (16, -19R) | 12.1% (173, -118R) | 18.8% (16, -6R) |
| 2024 | 31.2% (16, +7R) | 17.6% (17, +5R) | 12.8% (203, -147R) | 29.4% (17, +1R) |
| 2025 | 21.1% (19, -1R) | 5.3% (19, -15R) | 16.6% (205, -120R) | 21.1% (19, -6R) |
| 2026 | 21.4% (14, -1R) | 6.7% (15, -0R) | 14.0% (143, -129R) | 6.7% (15, -14R) |

## London session

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | /week | Win rate (95% CI) | Full target | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Total R | Max DD (R) | Longest losing run | $10k fixed $100/trade | Years ≥70% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2165 | 3.53 | 55.1% (53.0–57.1) | 58.7% | -0.202 | 0.521 | 70.2% | -438 | 438.2 | 9 | blown 2016-12-29 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | TP 1:2 | 2391 | 3.9 | 29.8% (28.0–31.7) | 24.4% | -0.196 | 0.726 | 36.9% | -468 | 478.3 | 19 | blown 2017-03-14 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | TP 1:3 | 2391 | 3.9 | 25.3% (23.6–27.1) | 15.0% | -0.206 | 0.728 | 31.8% | -492 | 507.7 | 24 | blown 2017-03-16 | 0 of 12 |
| XAUUSD | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 59 | 0.1 | 45.8% (33.7–58.3) | 54.2% | -0.274 | 0.448 | 65.3% | -16 | 16.2 | 4 | $8,381 | 1 of 8 |
| EURUSD | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2492 | 4.07 | 56.5% (54.6–58.5) | 65.9% | -0.111 | 0.689 | 65.4% | -276 | 279.9 | 7 | blown 2019-12-06 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | TP 1:2 | 2742 | 4.47 | 34.2% (32.5–36.0) | 27.4% | -0.114 | 0.835 | 38.4% | -314 | 327.8 | 22 | blown 2018-04-13 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | TP 1:3 | 2742 | 4.47 | 30.0% (28.3–31.7) | 17.1% | -0.096 | 0.87 | 33.0% | -262 | 311.7 | 22 | blown 2018-04-04 | 0 of 12 |
| EURUSD | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 364 | 0.59 | 54.7% (49.5–59.7) | 61.0% | -0.129 | 0.677 | 64.1% | -47 | 57.0 | 7 | $5,317 | 1 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2476 | 4.04 | 56.4% (54.5–58.4) | 65.3% | -0.147 | 0.594 | 68.6% | -363 | 365.6 | 9 | blown 2017-07-21 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | TP 1:2 | 2747 | 4.48 | 34.5% (32.8–36.3) | 28.1% | -0.083 | 0.877 | 37.5% | -228 | 247.4 | 14 | blown 2017-07-05 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | TP 1:3 | 2747 | 4.48 | 29.3% (27.7–31.1) | 17.7% | -0.087 | 0.88 | 32.1% | -240 | 266.5 | 18 | blown 2017-07-25 | 0 of 12 |
| GBPUSD | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 250 | 0.41 | 52.4% (46.2–58.5) | 55.2% | -0.184 | 0.586 | 65.3% | -46 | 51.6 | 6 | $5,408 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2202 | 3.59 | 54.7% (52.6–56.7) | 63.1% | -0.167 | 0.569 | 68.0% | -368 | 368.3 | 9 | blown 2018-10-04 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | TP 1:2 | 2470 | 4.03 | 33.4% (31.6–35.3) | 25.3% | -0.138 | 0.8 | 38.6% | -342 | 358.7 | 17 | blown 2018-08-14 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | TP 1:3 | 2470 | 4.03 | 29.8% (28.0–31.6) | 15.2% | -0.123 | 0.832 | 33.7% | -304 | 333.2 | 17 | blown 2019-02-20 | 0 of 12 |
| USDJPY | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 178 | 0.29 | 54.5% (47.2–61.6) | 62.4% | -0.107 | 0.733 | 62.0% | -19 | 23.5 | 7 | $8,095 | 3 of 12 |

**XAUUSD, all 10 variants:** highest win rate 63.4% (SL = last 15m swing); best average -0.136R (SL = last 15m swing); variant-years at ≥70%: 2 of 114; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2165 | 55.1% | 58.7% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.399 | 0.938 | 70.2% | -0.202 | 0.521 | -438 | 3.114 | {'skip_no_last_level': 636, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1643} |
| + clean-side filter | 503 | 52.9% | 56.1% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.418 | 0.958 | 69.6% | -0.230 | 0.49 | -116 | 3.159 | {'skip_not_clean_side': 8000, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 590, 'skip_no_last_level': 372} |
| + SL <= 20 pips (skip wider) | 522 | 44.1% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.434 | 0.966 | 69.0% | -0.349 | 0.354 | -182 | 1.5615 | {'skip_sl_too_big': 1860, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1240, 'skip_no_last_level': 33} |
| TP 1:2 | 2391 | 29.8% | 24.4% | 67.5% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 1.74 | 1.018 | 36.9% | -0.196 | 0.726 | -468 | 3.22 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1223} |
| TP 1:3 | 2391 | 25.3% | 15.0% | 71.4% | 0.0% | 13.6% | 2.179 | 1.014 | 31.8% | -0.206 | 0.728 | -492 | 3.22 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1223} |
| 2nd 30m close must stay outside (fake-out filter strict) | 1795 | 57.5% | 60.5% | 37.3% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.364 | 0.923 | 71.7% | -0.182 | 0.535 | -327 | 3.684 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1620, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 1340, 'skip_no_last_level': 687} |
| SL = last 15m swing | 2165 | 63.4% | 66.7% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.29 | 0.873 | 75.0% | -0.136 | 0.576 | -294 | 4.519 | {'skip_no_last_level': 636, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1643} |
| box to 11:45 (75 min) | 1804 | 53.9% | 57.5% | 41.4% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.428 | 0.946 | 68.8% | -0.205 | 0.529 | -370 | 3.1205 | {'skip_no_last_level': 587, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1677} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 59 | 45.8% | 54.2% | 45.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.487 | 0.917 | 65.3% | -0.274 | 0.448 | -16 | 1.561 | {'skip_not_clean_side': 8064, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 363, 'skip_sl_too_big': 452, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 304, 'skip_no_last_level': 7} |
| up to 2 trades a day (re-entry after a stop or fake-out) | 2717 | 55.5% | 59.4% | 39.5% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.395 | 0.934 | 70.3% | -0.197 | 0.526 | -536 | 3.071 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 2776, 'skip_no_last_level': 768} |

</details>

XAUUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 55.1% | -0.202 | 67.4% | -0.039 | 0.881 | 55.3% | -0.198 |
| TP 1:2 | 29.8% | -0.196 | 34.1% | -0.022 | 0.967 | 29.9% | -0.192 |
| TP 1:3 | 25.3% | -0.206 | 28.1% | -0.048 | 0.931 | 25.4% | -0.202 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 45.8% | -0.274 | 60.8% | -0.051 | 0.869 | 45.8% | -0.274 |

XAUUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | TP 1:2 | TP 1:3 | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 44.8% (181, -62R) | 30.2% (199, -41R) | 25.1% (199, -42R) | 20.0% (10, -7R) |
| 2016 | 52.7% (184, -39R) | 29.8% (198, -35R) | 24.7% (198, -35R) | 55.6% (9, -1R) |
| 2017 | 47.1% (172, -52R) | 27.7% (195, -50R) | 24.6% (195, -41R) | 46.2% (13, -2R) |
| 2018 | 55.1% (198, -39R) | 33.6% (217, -26R) | 30.4% (217, -26R) | 64.3% (14, -1R) |
| 2019 | 56.3% (197, -44R) | 28.5% (214, -59R) | 25.2% (214, -63R) | 42.9% (7, -1R) |
| 2020 | 58.4% (197, -32R) | 28.9% (211, -46R) | 25.1% (211, -46R) | – |
| 2021 | 49.4% (178, -46R) | 25.4% (197, -63R) | 21.3% (197, -66R) | 0.0% (1, -1R) |
| 2022 | 52.9% (204, -46R) | 28.9% (225, -55R) | 24.4% (225, -52R) | 100.0% (1, +0R) |
| 2023 | 62.5% (176, -19R) | 25.9% (193, -60R) | 22.3% (193, -56R) | 25.0% (4, -2R) |
| 2024 | 60.7% (191, -28R) | 34.8% (210, +1R) | 26.2% (210, -24R) | – |
| 2025 | 57.7% (168, -28R) | 31.6% (196, -22R) | 26.0% (196, -27R) | – |
| 2026 | 66.4% (119, -2R) | 33.1% (136, -12R) | 28.7% (136, -12R) | – |

**EURUSD, all 10 variants:** highest win rate 61.6% (SL = last 15m swing); best average -0.074R (2nd 30m close must stay outside (fake-out filter strict)); variant-years at ≥70%: 1 of 120; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2492 | 56.5% | 65.9% | 32.3% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.434 | 0.82 | 65.4% | -0.111 | 0.689 | -276 | 0.00115 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1552, 'skip_no_last_level': 719} |
| + clean-side filter | 614 | 53.9% | 60.4% | 37.1% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.534 | 0.885 | 62.4% | -0.120 | 0.705 | -74 | 0.00119 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 641, 'skip_not_clean_side': 9301, 'skip_no_last_level': 381} |
| + SL <= 20 pips (skip wider) | 2102 | 54.9% | 65.1% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.459 | 0.821 | 64.1% | -0.118 | 0.681 | -248 | 0.00103 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1333, 'skip_sl_too_big': 503, 'skip_no_last_level': 419} |
| TP 1:2 | 2742 | 34.2% | 27.4% | 63.2% | 0.0% | 9.3% | 1.688 | 1.053 | 38.4% | -0.114 | 0.835 | -314 | 0.00118 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1065} |
| TP 1:3 | 2742 | 30.0% | 17.1% | 67.1% | 0.0% | 15.9% | 2.137 | 1.051 | 33.0% | -0.096 | 0.87 | -262 | 0.00118 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1065} |
| 2nd 30m close must stay outside (fake-out filter strict) | 2125 | 60.1% | 67.9% | 28.9% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.405 | 0.794 | 66.2% | -0.074 | 0.767 | -157 | 0.00141 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1763, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 1309, 'skip_no_last_level': 841} |
| SL = last 15m swing | 2492 | 61.6% | 71.1% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.337 | 0.747 | 68.9% | -0.080 | 0.722 | -199 | 0.00153 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1552, 'skip_no_last_level': 719} |
| box to 11:45 (75 min) | 2170 | 57.6% | 66.0% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.421 | 0.826 | 66.3% | -0.109 | 0.69 | -236 | 0.0012 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1705, 'skip_no_last_level': 666} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 364 | 54.7% | 61.0% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.492 | 0.878 | 64.1% | -0.129 | 0.677 | -47 | 0.00118 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 411, 'skip_not_clean_side': 9421, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 342, 'skip_sl_too_big': 244, 'skip_no_last_level': 156} |
| up to 2 trades a day (re-entry after a stop or fake-out) | 3331 | 56.5% | 65.6% | 32.5% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.426 | 0.823 | 65.9% | -0.117 | 0.674 | -389 | 0.00116 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 3152, 'skip_no_last_level': 968} |

</details>

EURUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 56.5% | -0.111 | 69.6% | -0.002 | 0.994 | 56.8% | -0.105 |
| TP 1:2 | 34.2% | -0.114 | 35.7% | 0.003 | 1.004 | 34.3% | -0.113 |
| TP 1:3 | 30.0% | -0.096 | 31.3% | 0.026 | 1.039 | 30.0% | -0.094 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 54.7% | -0.129 | 64.9% | -0.008 | 0.976 | 54.9% | -0.123 |

EURUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | TP 1:2 | TP 1:3 | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 60.4% (217, -22R) | 32.8% (235, -35R) | 27.7% (235, -47R) | 69.2% (13, +3R) |
| 2016 | 56.2% (217, -14R) | 30.3% (231, -46R) | 27.7% (231, -32R) | 53.6% (28, -5R) |
| 2017 | 62.1% (211, +8R) | 40.0% (235, +6R) | 33.6% (235, +1R) | 54.5% (33, -3R) |
| 2018 | 59.3% (209, -24R) | 28.9% (239, -64R) | 23.4% (239, -78R) | 46.2% (26, -10R) |
| 2019 | 51.0% (208, -52R) | 26.3% (228, -84R) | 21.5% (228, -94R) | 31.0% (42, -16R) |
| 2020 | 51.9% (208, -40R) | 33.0% (227, -33R) | 29.1% (227, -25R) | 44.0% (25, -9R) |
| 2021 | 54.7% (212, -19R) | 37.7% (236, -1R) | 32.6% (236, -12R) | 59.1% (44, -5R) |
| 2022 | 54.9% (215, -30R) | 35.0% (240, -16R) | 30.4% (240, -16R) | 57.9% (19, -2R) |
| 2023 | 56.2% (217, -26R) | 35.2% (230, -22R) | 32.6% (230, +1R) | 52.2% (46, -4R) |
| 2024 | 54.6% (218, -16R) | 37.9% (240, -2R) | 33.8% (240, +29R) | 68.4% (38, +1R) |
| 2025 | 60.0% (215, -22R) | 37.2% (234, -9R) | 34.2% (234, +11R) | 63.0% (27, +6R) |
| 2026 | 57.2% (145, -18R) | 37.1% (167, -9R) | 34.1% (167, +1R) | 73.9% (23, -1R) |

**GBPUSD, all 10 variants:** highest win rate 62.3% (SL = last 15m swing); best average -0.083R (TP 1:2); variant-years at ≥70%: 0 of 120; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2476 | 56.4% | 65.3% | 33.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.38 | 0.828 | 68.6% | -0.147 | 0.594 | -363 | 0.00156 | {'skip_no_last_level': 801, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1699} |
| + clean-side filter | 620 | 53.2% | 58.9% | 39.2% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.435 | 0.9 | 67.4% | -0.189 | 0.551 | -117 | 0.00165 | {'skip_no_last_level': 403, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 695, 'skip_not_clean_side': 9453} |
| + SL <= 20 pips (skip wider) | 1701 | 53.0% | 62.7% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.434 | 0.837 | 65.8% | -0.164 | 0.584 | -278 | 0.00131 | {'skip_no_last_level': 289, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1296, 'skip_sl_too_big': 967} |
| TP 1:2 | 2747 | 34.5% | 28.1% | 62.8% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 1.721 | 1.034 | 37.5% | -0.083 | 0.877 | -228 | 0.00164 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1135} |
| TP 1:3 | 2747 | 29.3% | 17.7% | 67.3% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 2.18 | 1.029 | 32.1% | -0.087 | 0.88 | -240 | 0.00164 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1135} |
| 2nd 30m close must stay outside (fake-out filter strict) | 2156 | 58.5% | 65.5% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.356 | 0.816 | 69.6% | -0.130 | 0.616 | -280 | 0.00192 | {'skip_no_last_level': 945, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 1281, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1830} |
| SL = last 15m swing | 2476 | 62.3% | 71.3% | 26.7% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.295 | 0.758 | 72.0% | -0.102 | 0.643 | -253 | 0.00215 | {'skip_no_last_level': 801, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1699, 'skip_no_15m_swing': 2} |
| box to 11:45 (75 min) | 2114 | 56.9% | 65.1% | 33.4% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.389 | 0.83 | 68.1% | -0.137 | 0.618 | -289 | 0.00166 | {'skip_no_last_level': 802, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1822} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 250 | 52.4% | 55.2% | 41.6% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.496 | 0.932 | 65.3% | -0.184 | 0.586 | -46 | 0.00148 | {'skip_no_last_level': 76, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 393, 'skip_sl_too_big': 382, 'skip_not_clean_side': 9590, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 388} |
| up to 2 trades a day (re-entry after a stop or fake-out) | 3352 | 57.1% | 65.2% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.387 | 0.833 | 68.3% | -0.137 | 0.618 | -458 | 0.00161 | {'skip_no_last_level': 1078, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 3286} |

</details>

GBPUSD, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 56.4% | -0.147 | 70.1% | -0.028 | 0.907 | 56.7% | -0.141 |
| TP 1:2 | 34.5% | -0.083 | 36.9% | 0.034 | 1.055 | 34.7% | -0.076 |
| TP 1:3 | 29.3% | -0.087 | 31.3% | 0.032 | 1.048 | 29.5% | -0.083 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 52.4% | -0.184 | 61.1% | -0.065 | 0.833 | 52.4% | -0.184 |

GBPUSD, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | TP 1:2 | TP 1:3 | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 56.0% (216, -41R) | 33.3% (234, -25R) | 26.5% (234, -30R) | 55.6% (9, +0R) |
| 2016 | 55.8% (208, -48R) | 28.1% (228, -58R) | 25.0% (228, -46R) | 50.0% (8, -3R) |
| 2017 | 61.1% (203, -20R) | 35.0% (226, -17R) | 30.5% (226, -15R) | 54.5% (22, -4R) |
| 2018 | 60.6% (216, -17R) | 41.2% (243, +26R) | 30.9% (243, -17R) | 54.2% (24, -4R) |
| 2019 | 51.4% (214, -44R) | 30.0% (233, -42R) | 26.2% (233, -32R) | 43.5% (23, -10R) |
| 2020 | 64.4% (205, -12R) | 35.7% (235, -2R) | 31.5% (235, +16R) | 50.0% (12, -4R) |
| 2021 | 52.3% (199, -47R) | 33.6% (235, -16R) | 28.9% (235, -15R) | 47.6% (21, -6R) |
| 2022 | 62.0% (205, -11R) | 32.9% (228, -30R) | 27.2% (228, -34R) | 41.2% (17, -7R) |
| 2023 | 50.7% (229, -40R) | 32.2% (242, -50R) | 27.3% (242, -52R) | 50.0% (26, -4R) |
| 2024 | 54.0% (211, -25R) | 35.7% (238, -11R) | 29.8% (238, -16R) | 63.6% (33, +3R) |
| 2025 | 55.8% (217, -24R) | 39.1% (238, +0R) | 34.9% (238, +7R) | 55.2% (29, -3R) |
| 2026 | 52.9% (153, -33R) | 37.7% (167, -3R) | 34.7% (167, -5R) | 53.8% (26, -5R) |

**USDJPY, all 10 variants:** highest win rate 60.7% (SL = last 15m swing); best average -0.107R (ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing); variant-years at ≥70%: 4 of 120; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Win | Target | Stop | BE | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2202 | 54.7% | 63.1% | 35.3% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.404 | 0.856 | 68.0% | -0.167 | 0.569 | -368 | 0.135 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1658, 'skip_no_last_level': 782} |
| + clean-side filter | 359 | 55.7% | 61.3% | 37.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.475 | 0.902 | 65.5% | -0.135 | 0.663 | -48 | 0.144 | {'skip_not_clean_side': 8976, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 523, 'skip_no_last_level': 425} |
| + SL <= 20 pips (skip wider) | 1621 | 51.6% | 62.1% | 37.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.42 | 0.851 | 66.9% | -0.194 | 0.528 | -315 | 0.109 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1410, 'skip_sl_too_big': 713, 'skip_no_last_level': 395} |
| TP 1:2 | 2470 | 33.4% | 25.3% | 63.2% | 0.0% | 11.5% | 1.654 | 1.039 | 38.6% | -0.138 | 0.8 | -342 | 0.14 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1156} |
| TP 1:3 | 2470 | 29.8% | 15.2% | 66.5% | 0.0% | 18.3% | 2.045 | 1.041 | 33.7% | -0.123 | 0.832 | -304 | 0.14 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1156} |
| 2nd 30m close must stay outside (fake-out filter strict) | 1874 | 57.8% | 65.5% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.38 | 0.811 | 68.1% | -0.123 | 0.642 | -230 | 0.163 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1628, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 1359, 'skip_no_last_level': 852} |
| SL = last 15m swing | 2202 | 60.7% | 69.1% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.289 | 0.763 | 72.5% | -0.124 | 0.586 | -274 | 0.2 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1658, 'skip_no_last_level': 782} |
| box to 11:45 (75 min) | 1853 | 53.5% | 62.4% | 35.8% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.397 | 0.853 | 68.2% | -0.183 | 0.537 | -340 | 0.134 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 1676, 'skip_no_last_level': 692} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 178 | 54.5% | 62.4% | 36.5% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.54 | 0.881 | 62.0% | -0.107 | 0.733 | -19 | 0.117 | {'skip_not_clean_side': 9012, 'fakeout_second_close_inside': 292, 'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 284, 'skip_sl_too_big': 231, 'skip_no_last_level': 169} |
| up to 2 trades a day (re-entry after a stop or fake-out) | 2792 | 54.9% | 63.6% | 34.7% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.405 | 0.847 | 67.6% | -0.160 | 0.582 | -446 | 0.131 | {'no_fill_fakeout_or_cutoff': 2961, 'skip_no_last_level': 956} |

</details>

USDJPY, headline variants with **zero costs** (no spread, slippage, commission) and with the **most generous intrabar order** (full costs):

| Variant | Win (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Win (generous intrabar) | Avg R (generous) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 54.7% | -0.167 | 66.5% | -0.059 | 0.823 | 55.3% | -0.153 |
| TP 1:2 | 33.4% | -0.138 | 34.9% | -0.028 | 0.955 | 33.6% | -0.135 |
| TP 1:3 | 29.8% | -0.123 | 30.9% | -0.004 | 0.993 | 29.8% | -0.12 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 54.5% | -0.107 | 64.5% | 0.027 | 1.076 | 55.1% | -0.098 |

USDJPY, win rate by year, headline variants (cell = win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | TP 1:2 | TP 1:3 | ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 56.6% (173, -27R) | 39.8% (196, -1R) | 36.7% (196, +2R) | 61.1% (18, -3R) |
| 2016 | 62.1% (169, -21R) | 34.5% (197, -20R) | 30.5% (197, -21R) | 75.0% (8, +0R) |
| 2017 | 61.6% (190, -12R) | 34.3% (210, -24R) | 31.4% (210, -8R) | 72.2% (18, +1R) |
| 2018 | 46.7% (184, -54R) | 26.5% (204, -68R) | 25.0% (204, -61R) | 61.1% (18, -1R) |
| 2019 | 42.3% (189, -56R) | 28.3% (205, -63R) | 23.9% (205, -66R) | 33.3% (15, -6R) |
| 2020 | 51.3% (195, -26R) | 35.8% (218, -20R) | 29.4% (218, -28R) | 54.5% (22, -2R) |
| 2021 | 54.4% (195, -32R) | 38.0% (221, -3R) | 32.1% (221, -5R) | 33.3% (21, -8R) |
| 2022 | 56.2% (192, -24R) | 39.0% (213, +9R) | 35.2% (213, +10R) | 57.1% (7, +2R) |
| 2023 | 59.9% (197, -29R) | 29.3% (225, -53R) | 26.2% (225, -49R) | 70.6% (17, +1R) |
| 2024 | 59.3% (194, -18R) | 33.2% (217, -28R) | 29.5% (217, -26R) | 50.0% (18, -1R) |
| 2025 | 54.7% (179, -40R) | 33.8% (207, -26R) | 31.4% (207, -16R) | 20.0% (5, -3R) |
| 2026 | 50.3% (145, -31R) | 27.4% (157, -44R) | 24.8% (157, -37R) | 54.5% (11, +3R) |

## TopG levels: three readings side by side (for critics)

- **Exact** = H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p
- **All conditions** = ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day
- **Most generous** = H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate); also run with zero costs AND the most favourable intrabar order.
- exact = the procedure he demonstrated himself as a gold H1 'backtest' (D2 27:39: green candle at the A+, SL below it, TP the last confirmed high) plus his 'skip if SL > 40 pips' (D2 41:14). all_conditions = every coded filter he states. generous = the reading that maximises win rate (1:1 target), additionally run with zero costs and the most favourable intrabar order.

**XAUUSD**

| Reading | Trades | Win rate after costs (95% CI) | Avg R after costs | PF | Win rate zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 145 | 14.5% (9.7–21.1) | -0.477 | 0.481 | 17.2% | -0.068 | – |
| All conditions | 146 | 8.9% (5.3–14.6) | -0.449 | 0.546 | 9.3% | -0.22 | – |
| Most generous | 539 | 39.3% (35.3–43.5) | -0.283 | 0.572 | 50.6% | 0.012 | 51.2% / 0.023R |

| Year | Exact (costs / zero cost) | All conditions (costs / zero cost) | Most generous (costs / zero cost) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.0% (9, -10R) / 18.2% (-3R) | 0.0% (11, -12R) / 0.0% (-11R) | 34.2% (38, -14R) / 50.0% (+0R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% (12, -13R) / 0.0% (-12R) | 0.0% (9, -10R) / 0.0% (-10R) | 45.0% (40, -6R) / 62.5% (+10R) |
| 2017 | 24.0% (25, -8R) / 26.9% (+3R) | 11.1% (18, -7R) / 15.0% (+1R) | 36.8% (57, -21R) / 49.1% (-1R) |
| 2018 | 17.2% (29, -12R) / 17.2% (-9R) | 16.7% (18, +2R) / 16.7% (+10R) | 32.2% (59, -28R) / 45.8% (-5R) |
| 2019 | 9.1% (11, -9R) / 9.1% (-8R) | 18.8% (16, +5R) / 18.8% (+12R) | 26.8% (41, -23R) / 41.5% (-7R) |
| 2020 | 10.0% (10, -8R) / 10.0% (-7R) | 14.3% (7, -2R) / 12.5% (+1R) | 45.2% (42, -6R) / 54.8% (+4R) |
| 2021 | 18.2% (11, -5R) / 18.2% (-4R) | 6.2% (16, -8R) / 5.9% (-6R) | 56.5% (46, +4R) / 65.2% (+14R) |
| 2022 | 0.0% (13, -14R) / 13.3% (+15R) | 0.0% (15, -16R) / 0.0% (-15R) | 44.4% (63, -11R) / 54.0% (+5R) |
| 2023 | 17.6% (17, -2R) / 16.7% (-1R) | 10.0% (20, -15R) / 10.0% (-11R) | 29.4% (51, -26R) / 41.2% (-9R) |
| 2024 | 60.0% (5, +14R) / 60.0% (+17R) | 6.7% (15, -4R) / 6.7% (-3R) | 28.9% (38, -18R) / 36.8% (-10R) |
| 2025 | 0.0% (3, -3R) / 0.0% (-3R) | – / – | 44.7% (38, -5R) / 52.6% (+2R) |
| 2026 | – / – | 0.0% (1, -1R) / 0.0% (-1R) | 53.8% (26, +2R) / 57.7% (+4R) |

**EURUSD**

| Reading | Trades | Win rate after costs (95% CI) | Avg R after costs | PF | Win rate zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 360 | 20.3% (16.4–24.7) | -0.380 | 0.564 | 20.3% | -0.28 | – |
| All conditions | 226 | 11.9% (8.3–16.8) | -0.011 | 0.989 | 12.3% | 0.354 | – |
| Most generous | 687 | 49.1% (45.3–52.8) | -0.180 | 0.699 | 53.0% | 0.059 | 53.9% / 0.077R |

| Year | Exact (costs / zero cost) | All conditions (costs / zero cost) | Most generous (costs / zero cost) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 6.7% (15, -12R) / 6.7% (-11R) | 6.7% (15, -4R) / 6.7% (-2R) | 35.0% (40, -15R) / 40.0% (-8R) |
| 2016 | 17.9% (28, -17R) / 17.9% (-15R) | 13.3% (15, +2R) / 13.3% (+5R) | 45.1% (51, -11R) / 51.0% (+1R) |
| 2017 | 28.1% (32, -14R) / 28.1% (-11R) | 12.0% (25, -6R) / 12.0% (-2R) | 60.7% (61, +5R) / 62.3% (+15R) |
| 2018 | 13.2% (38, -26R) / 13.2% (-23R) | 3.7% (27, -22R) / 3.7% (-17R) | 45.5% (77, -19R) / 49.4% (-1R) |
| 2019 | 22.9% (35, -9R) / 22.9% (-5R) | 7.1% (14, -12R) / 7.1% (-9R) | 48.1% (54, -13R) / 53.7% (+4R) |
| 2020 | 25.6% (39, -12R) / 25.6% (-8R) | 15.0% (20, -7R) / 15.0% (-2R) | 56.7% (67, -2R) / 59.7% (+13R) |
| 2021 | 18.8% (32, -20R) / 18.8% (-15R) | 15.0% (20, +44R) / 15.0% (+76R) | 40.3% (62, -24R) / 48.4% (-2R) |
| 2022 | 16.0% (25, +15R) / 16.0% (+17R) | 20.0% (20, +21R) / 25.0% (+34R) | 46.7% (60, -11R) / 48.3% (-2R) |
| 2023 | 24.1% (29, -10R) / 24.1% (-7R) | 8.7% (23, -13R) / 8.7% (-8R) | 48.4% (64, -12R) / 51.6% (+2R) |
| 2024 | 24.1% (29, -12R) / 24.1% (-9R) | 9.5% (21, -17R) / 9.1% (-13R) | 46.2% (52, -16R) / 48.1% (-2R) |
| 2025 | 20.0% (40, -16R) / 20.0% (-13R) | 17.6% (17, +14R) / 17.6% (+20R) | 63.2% (57, +6R) / 68.4% (+21R) |
| 2026 | 16.7% (18, -3R) / 16.7% (-0R) | 22.2% (9, -4R) / 22.2% (-2R) | 47.6% (42, -10R) / 50.0% (+0R) |

**GBPUSD**

| Reading | Trades | Win rate after costs (95% CI) | Avg R after costs | PF | Win rate zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 322 | 23.0% (18.7–27.9) | -0.176 | 0.792 | 24.2% | -0.019 | – |
| All conditions | 200 | 7.0% (4.2–11.4) | -0.367 | 0.65 | 7.5% | -0.19 | – |
| Most generous | 632 | 42.6% (38.8–46.5) | -0.277 | 0.58 | 48.8% | -0.024 | 49.3% / -0.014R |

| Year | Exact (costs / zero cost) | All conditions (costs / zero cost) | Most generous (costs / zero cost) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 15.2% (33, -15R) / 15.2% (-13R) | 0.0% (18, -20R) / 0.0% (-18R) | 39.3% (61, -18R) / 41.0% (-11R) |
| 2016 | 16.0% (25, -8R) / 15.4% (-7R) | 16.7% (12, -1R) / 16.7% (+1R) | 47.2% (53, -8R) / 50.9% (+1R) |
| 2017 | 31.6% (19, +2R) / 35.0% (+5R) | 12.5% (8, -2R) / 12.5% (-0R) | 48.6% (37, -5R) / 51.4% (+1R) |
| 2018 | 24.1% (29, +5R) / 29.0% (+8R) | 8.0% (25, -12R) / 8.0% (-9R) | 50.8% (65, -5R) / 52.3% (+3R) |
| 2019 | 37.5% (24, +10R) / 37.5% (+14R) | 6.7% (15, -12R) / 6.7% (-9R) | 44.4% (45, -9R) / 48.9% (-1R) |
| 2020 | 18.8% (32, -14R) / 18.8% (-11R) | 0.0% (20, -22R) / 0.0% (-20R) | 53.7% (54, -1R) / 59.3% (+10R) |
| 2021 | 19.2% (26, -1R) / 23.1% (+4R) | 5.9% (17, -2R) / 5.9% (+1R) | 35.1% (57, -27R) / 45.6% (-5R) |
| 2022 | 17.9% (28, -10R) / 17.9% (-8R) | 4.8% (21, -16R) / 4.8% (-13R) | 47.2% (53, -8R) / 50.9% (+1R) |
| 2023 | 25.0% (24, -2R) / 25.0% (+0R) | 11.1% (18, -6R) / 11.1% (-1R) | 36.5% (52, -22R) / 53.8% (+4R) |
| 2024 | 33.3% (27, -1R) / 33.3% (+2R) | 6.2% (16, -3R) / 6.2% (-0R) | 39.2% (51, -20R) / 45.1% (-5R) |
| 2025 | 29.0% (31, -7R) / 32.3% (+14R) | 5.3% (19, -10R) / 10.5% (-4R) | 39.3% (61, -22R) / 46.7% (-4R) |
| 2026 | 12.5% (24, -17R) / 12.5% (-15R) | 18.2% (11, +30R) / 18.2% (+35R) | 27.9% (43, -28R) / 39.5% (-9R) |

**USDJPY**

| Reading | Trades | Win rate after costs (95% CI) | Avg R after costs | PF | Win rate zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 338 | 23.4% (19.2–28.2) | -0.058 | 0.93 | 24.0% | 0.075 | – |
| All conditions | 195 | 8.7% (5.5–13.5) | -0.432 | 0.584 | 8.7% | -0.24 | – |
| Most generous | 642 | 41.6% (37.8–45.4) | -0.307 | 0.542 | 45.3% | -0.095 | 46.0% / -0.083R |

| Year | Exact (costs / zero cost) | All conditions (costs / zero cost) | Most generous (costs / zero cost) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 13.6% (22, -5R) / 13.6% (-3R) | 8.3% (12, +0R) / 8.3% (+2R) | 37.0% (54, -20R) / 37.0% (-14R) |
| 2016 | 18.8% (16, +4R) / 18.8% (+5R) | 11.1% (9, -3R) / 11.1% (-2R) | 39.5% (38, -11R) / 42.1% (-6R) |
| 2017 | 23.7% (38, +13R) / 26.3% (+20R) | 4.5% (22, -18R) / 4.3% (-16R) | 41.2% (68, -21R) / 50.0% (+0R) |
| 2018 | 18.9% (37, -10R) / 18.9% (-6R) | 9.5% (21, -15R) / 9.5% (-11R) | 46.5% (71, -17R) / 54.9% (+7R) |
| 2019 | 28.9% (38, +0R) / 28.9% (+5R) | 0.0% (21, -26R) / 0.0% (-21R) | 36.5% (63, -31R) / 39.7% (-13R) |
| 2020 | 25.0% (24, +2R) / 25.0% (+5R) | 22.2% (18, +22R) / 22.2% (+32R) | 34.7% (49, -24R) / 36.7% (-13R) |
| 2021 | 41.7% (24, +8R) / 41.7% (+10R) | 7.1% (14, -14R) / 7.1% (-11R) | 39.1% (46, -21R) / 43.5% (-6R) |
| 2022 | 22.7% (22, -5R) / 22.7% (-3R) | 0.0% (8, -9R) / 0.0% (-8R) | 40.9% (44, -12R) / 43.2% (-6R) |
| 2023 | 8.8% (34, -29R) / 11.8% (-16R) | 5.0% (20, -10R) / 5.0% (-7R) | 44.6% (56, -12R) / 48.2% (-3R) |
| 2024 | 40.9% (22, +20R) / 40.9% (+22R) | 14.3% (21, +3R) / 14.3% (+6R) | 47.3% (55, -7R) / 47.3% (-3R) |
| 2025 | 18.6% (43, -14R) / 18.6% (-11R) | 5.0% (20, -17R) / 5.0% (-15R) | 46.5% (71, -12R) / 50.7% (+1R) |
| 2026 | 27.8% (18, -5R) / 27.8% (-3R) | 22.2% (9, +2R) / 22.2% (+4R) | 40.7% (27, -7R) / 40.7% (-5R) |

## "25 SL in a row is impossible" (his livestream, 8 Oct 2026): M15 A+ only, direct execution

HIS OWN CHANNEL livestream 'LIVE FOREX TRADING | LONDON SESSION | GOLD & BITCOIN | OCT 8 | DAY 515' (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BK6Ih2igBI&t=713s), 11:53-12:32: «जो भी लेवल आपको 20 से 25 पिप के आसपास का एसएल निकाल के दे आपको उस पे डायरेक्ट एग्जीक्यूशन स्टार्ट करना है ... $100 का अकाउंट लिया $.01 से हर एक लेवल धड़ाधड़ एग्जीक्यूट करते हुए गया। अब मुझे नहीं लगता कि इस स्ट्रेटजी जो मेरी है उसके हिसाब से ट्रेड करोगे तो 25 एसएल किसी के लगातार लग सकते हैं। यह तो इंपॉसिबल है। खाली ए प्लस ट्रेड करोगे ना भाई 15 मिनट का तो 25 एसएल लगना तो डिस्पॉसिबल चीज है ... 100 ट्रेड्स का रिजल्ट निकाल के देख लेना। क्या आपको आरआर और क्या विन रेट मिलता है।» Coded exactly as framed: M15 A+ (TJL2) only, every level executed directly with a limit at the zone, SL 25 pips (levels whose zone fits inside 25 pips), measure the longest run of consecutive stop-losses. He does not say the target in this passage, so the test is run with his course target (last confirmed high/low) and with 1:3, 1:2, 1:1; a 20-pip version and a no-bias-filter version.

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | Win rate | Longest run of consecutive stop-losses | Runs of 25+ stops | First 25th stop in a row | Longest losing run (any loss) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 1589 | 19.8% | 38 | 3 | 2023-01-10 | 38 |
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 1589 | 19.0% | 38 | 2 | 2023-01-03 | 38 |
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 1589 | 25.0% | 20 | 0 | – | 20 |
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 1589 | 38.5% | 14 | 0 | – | 18 |
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 1487 | 15.9% | 43 | 7 | 2016-04-11 | 43 |
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 1589 | 19.8% | 38 | 3 | 2023-01-10 | 38 |
| XAUUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 2608 | 19.7% | 33 | 4 | 2015-03-02 | 33 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 2353 | 45.5% | 11 | 0 | – | 12 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 2353 | 31.4% | 16 | 0 | – | 17 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 2353 | 35.2% | 13 | 0 | – | 17 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 2353 | 48.7% | 11 | 0 | – | 12 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 2341 | 40.5% | 12 | 0 | – | 15 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 2353 | 45.5% | 11 | 0 | – | 12 |
| EURUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 3775 | 31.9% | 19 | 0 | – | 25 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 2175 | 38.0% | 14 | 0 | – | 14 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 2175 | 28.0% | 28 | 1 | 2020-11-09 | 28 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 2175 | 33.7% | 16 | 0 | – | 16 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 2175 | 49.9% | 8 | 0 | – | 9 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 2148 | 33.2% | 16 | 0 | – | 20 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 2175 | 38.0% | 14 | 0 | – | 14 |
| GBPUSD | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 3595 | 28.0% | 27 | 2 | 2020-11-06 | 27 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high | 2232 | 38.3% | 19 | 0 | – | 21 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3 | 2232 | 28.9% | 19 | 0 | – | 21 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:2 | 2232 | 33.9% | 19 | 0 | – | 21 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:1 | 2232 | 47.5% | 13 | 0 | – | 13 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 20p (zones<=20p), TP last high | 2212 | 33.5% | 19 | 0 | – | 21 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, TP last high, every level (no bias filter) | 2232 | 38.3% | 19 | 0 | – | 21 |
| USDJPY | STREAK TEST: M15 A+ only, direct limit, SL 25p, 1:3, every level (no bias filter) | 3574 | 29.5% | 21 | 0 | – | 23 |

With no bias filter and the 'last confirmed high' target, levels against the current structure have no target (his TP rule is undefined there), so the every-level version is also run with a fixed 1:3.

## What is his definition vs our interpretation

**Defined explicitly in his words (safe to show as 'his rule'):** two-candle retracement (2nd red body closes below 1st red's low; consecutive); confirmed high = highest point before it; confirmed low = lowest point between the high and the first close above it; CHoCH = two consecutive candle closes beyond the last confirmed low/high (wicks don't count); TJL1 = top wick of the level-1 candle, TJL2 = bottom wick of the level-2 candle, active after one close above level 1 (mirror for sells); TJL2 = A+; level breached after two closes beyond it; confirmation = a candle of the trade's colour at the level (M5, or H1 in his own backtest); engulfing = close beyond the previous candle's high; TP = last confirmed high/low; SL rules (below the candle / lowest low before it / 30 pips; skip > 40 or > 100 pips); gold pip = $0.10.

**Our interpretation (he names it but never defines it; label it on screen or leave it out):** SBR/RBS zone = wick of the broken confirmed low/high (he never says how SBR/RBS are drawn); QML / post-CHoCH 'A+' zone = wick of level 1 of the last structure (mapping inferred by the structure extract); 'wick' = from the body edge to the extreme (co-instructor: + 1% of body; zero-height wicks not widened); a tap = BID touches the zone; the confirmation candle must itself touch the zone; trend/bias = the level timeframe's structure direction (his 'trade with the 1-2-3' rule made mechanical); H4 agreement in 'all conditions'; entry at the open of the minute after the confirmation candle closes; direct entry = limit at the zone's near edge; fixed holding cap (120 h for H1, 48 h for M15).

**Not coded (pure discretion or undefined):** ISS / five-wave CHoCH entries; dual CHoCH; double top/bottom levels; 1-minute CHoCH before the confirmation candle; news filter; 'strong candle' / 'major level' judgement.

## His premises (topg_premises_EURUSD_GBPUSD_USDJPY_histdata_tf15.json)

**EURUSD** (histdata+modelled_ask, 15-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 1445 | 27.1% | 58.9% |
| RBS | 1001 | 26.3% | 58.0% |
| SBR | 998 | 29.8% | 56.0% |
| TJL1 | 3913 | 27.8% | 56.5% |
| TJL2 | 3886 | 29.2% | 56.5% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 11230 | 26.6% | 53.5% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 28.7% (n=9809); levels tapped second 11.0% (n=109).

**GBPUSD** (histdata+modelled_ask, 15-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 1367 | 32.8% | 61.9% |
| RBS | 948 | 34.1% | 59.1% |
| SBR | 945 | 34.4% | 59.9% |
| TJL1 | 3771 | 32.9% | 60.8% |
| TJL2 | 3721 | 34.2% | 59.7% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 10737 | 32.0% | 58.2% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 34.6% (n=9277); levels tapped second 22.1% (n=140).

**USDJPY** (histdata+modelled_ask, 15-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 1392 | 29.0% | 60.4% |
| RBS | 961 | 32.5% | 55.2% |
| SBR | 964 | 34.0% | 53.6% |
| TJL1 | 3808 | 31.0% | 57.7% |
| TJL2 | 3751 | 32.0% | 56.8% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 10871 | 31.6% | 56.8% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 31.9% (n=9062); levels tapped second 17.2% (n=238).

## His premises (topg_premises_EURUSD_GBPUSD_USDJPY_histdata_tf60.json)

**EURUSD** (histdata+modelled_ask, 60-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 448 | 28.6% | 56.5% |
| RBS | 298 | 27.2% | 55.4% |
| SBR | 299 | 29.1% | 53.2% |
| TJL1 | 1156 | 27.0% | 56.2% |
| TJL2 | 1141 | 29.4% | 52.8% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 3338 | 26.9% | 51.3% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 29.2% (n=2935); levels tapped second 18.0% (n=61).

**GBPUSD** (histdata+modelled_ask, 60-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 398 | 35.4% | 57.0% |
| RBS | 266 | 38.3% | 53.8% |
| SBR | 266 | 36.5% | 55.3% |
| TJL1 | 1136 | 35.7% | 56.6% |
| TJL2 | 1109 | 34.7% | 57.6% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 3172 | 34.5% | 54.3% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 36.9% (n=2638); levels tapped second 23.1% (n=91).

**USDJPY** (histdata+modelled_ask, 60-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 387 | 32.6% | 52.7% |
| RBS | 265 | 35.5% | 47.5% |
| SBR | 268 | 34.7% | 51.5% |
| TJL1 | 1108 | 31.7% | 55.3% |
| TJL2 | 1073 | 32.7% | 54.9% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 3101 | 34.7% | 51.8% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 33.5% (n=2512); levels tapped second 23.2% (n=99).

## His premises (topg_premises_XAUUSD_dukascopy_tf15.json)

**XAUUSD** (dukascopy, 15-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 1182 | 43.3% | 55.7% |
| RBS | 801 | 38.2% | 60.5% |
| SBR | 819 | 43.1% | 56.4% |
| TJL1 | 3322 | 42.6% | 56.7% |
| TJL2 | 3231 | 41.2% | 58.1% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 9345 | 41.0% | 58.6% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 42.3% (n=7411); levels tapped second 33.3% (n=294).

## His premises (topg_premises_XAUUSD_dukascopy_tf60.json)

**XAUUSD** (dukascopy, 60-minute levels). works = from the first touch, price moves 2 x 30 pips in the level's favour (from the zone edge) before trading 30 pips beyond the zone's far edge, within 72 h (his 30-pip stop, 1:2). First = tapped before an opposite level that was live and untouched at the same time.

| Level type | Touched | Works | Fails |
|---|---|---|---|
| QML | 347 | 45.5% | 53.0% |
| RBS | 237 | 48.1% | 49.4% |
| SBR | 244 | 45.1% | 53.3% |
| TJL1 | 964 | 47.4% | 51.6% |
| TJL2 | 919 | 48.2% | 50.6% |
| RANDOM_ZONE_BASELINE | 2711 | 48.0% | 51.3% |

'First level tapped works best, 90% of the time': first-tapped levels work 46.7% (n=2010); levels tapped second 47.5% (n=139).

## Second data source (topg_crosscheck_XAUUSD.json): Dukascopy BID vs HistData BID, same rules, zero costs

| Variant | Dukascopy trades | HistData trades | Same entry minute | Same entry + exit type | Win D / H | Avg R D / H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| topg:H1 A+ · H1 candle · SL candle · TP last high · SL<=40p | 151 | 152 | 129 | 129 | 17.2% / 17.1% | -0.068 / -0.028 |
| topg:H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · TP last high · RR>=2.5 · SL<=100p | 494 | 484 | 416 | 416 | 9.1% / 8.9% | -0.221 / -0.162 |
| topg:H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · 1:3 · SL<=40p | 539 | 529 | 461 | 459 | 25.8% / 24.6% | 0.031 / -0.019 |
| topg:H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL min(30p,candle) · half@1R + rest@100p | 539 | 529 | 461 | 460 | 12.8% / 13.2% | -0.083 / -0.046 |
| topg:H1 A+ · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap · 1:1 (generous to win rate) | 539 | 529 | 461 | 458 | 50.6% / 50.7% | 0.012 / 0.011 |
| topg:ALL CONDITIONS: H1 A+ + H4 agrees · M5 candle · SL<=40p · TP last high RR>=2.5 · IST windows · max 2/day | 151 | 147 | 123 | 123 | 9.3% / 8.2% | -0.22 / -0.304 |
| topg:M15 A+ + H1 bias · M5 candle · SL low-since-tap<=100p · TP last high RR>=2.5 | 1036 | 1027 | 893 | 888 | 13.5% / 12.7% | -0.064 / -0.132 |
| fib:H1 limit@0.618 SL0.786 tgt=extreme trend | 216 | 211 | 179 | 178 | 21.8% / 21.8% | -0.005 / -0.008 |
| fib:H1 M5-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 222 | 215 | 187 | 186 | 11.3% / 10.2% | -0.082 / -0.172 |
| fib:H1 M5-confirm(colour) 1:3 trend | 222 | 215 | 187 | 186 | 22.5% / 22.8% | -0.099 / -0.089 |
| fib:M5 M1-confirm(colour) tgt=extreme trend | 2398 | 2365 | 1977 | 1968 | 15.9% / 16.2% | 0.069 / 0.087 |
| london:box 10:30-11:30 · stop at breakout extreme · SL breakout candle · TP last 30m swing | 2185 | 2179 | 1936 | 1911 | 67.4% / 67.2% | -0.039 / -0.043 |
| london:TP 1:2 | 2391 | 2383 | 2115 | 2095 | 34.1% / 34.5% | -0.022 / -0.015 |
| london:TP 1:3 | 2391 | 2383 | 2115 | 2098 | 28.1% / 28.2% | -0.048 / -0.054 |
| london:ALL CONDITIONS: clean side + strict fake-out + SL<=20p + TP last swing | 79 | 81 | 68 | 68 | 60.8% / 60.5% | -0.051 / -0.064 |