# Method

# Stock Burner (Dinesh Kirola): backtest plan + record audit (PRELIMINARY)

Subject: "Stock Burner" (YouTube @stockburnerofficial, UCJrAfJ39rplnIFssSedUQOQ, 758 videos; vlog channel @tradewithburner
"Trade with Burner"; Instagram @stockburner_official / @dinesh_kirola). Identity, money trail and critics: evidence agents
(`evidence/`, `projects/.research/stockburner/`). Reference for method and tone: `projects/topg-audit/BACKTEST_PLAN.md`.
Code: `tools/sb_backtest.py` (data, backtest, record audit, report). Rules: `projects/stockburner-audit/sb_rules.json`
(every rule carries its source); dated copies in `prereg/`. His record claims: `record_claims.json`. Nothing here is a
trade recommendation.

> **Status (9 Oct 2026, 21:00 PKT): PRELIMINARY.** Rules extracted for three of his strategies (9-20 EMA, 9 EMA scalping,
> Big Bar) and coded. Full runs done on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and FINNIFTY (1-minute spot, 2015-01-09 → 2026-05-15) and BTC/ETH
> (Binance 5-minute, 2019-01 → 2026-09); second-source check on NIFTY/BANK NIFTY 2021-05 → 2026-05 (Hugging Face).
> His public record audited against the **Sensibull-verified daily P&L** he links in his own descriptions
> (Zerodha, 17 May 2023 → 4 Sep 2024). Real NIFTY option premiums checked on every 4th weekly expiry (2021–2026).
> Pending: owner listens on three quotes (§13). Generated tables: `BACKTEST.md`;
> data: `engine/public/projects/stockburner-audit/data/sb_*.json`; trades: `data_raw/trades/<tag>/` + `…/data/trades/`.

---

## 0. What he claims (his words first)

Captions = YouTube's own Hindi ASR (`hi-orig`); Whisper = local large-v3-turbo windows in
`projects/.research/stockburner/whisper_windows/` (`v2/` = with word timings). Links carry `&t=` seconds.

| # | Claim | Where | Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | «3 हम रिटू रिड रेश यहां पर मिनिम फॉलो करेंगे क्योंकि अगर आपका 50 पर भी विन रेट है ना इसके अंदर और इस सेटअप की एक्यूरेसी है जहां तक मैंने चेक आउट किया है इस सेटअप की एक्यूरेसी अपनी निकल के आती है 70 65 टू 70 पर की» "We follow a minimum 1:3 risk-reward… even at a 50% win rate… and this setup's accuracy, as far as I've checked, comes out 65 to 70%." | "Best Trading Strategy for Beginners: 9-20 Trading Strategy Revealed" (6 Oct 2024, 199K views), [13:29–13:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=809s) | Captions + Whisper **en** ("…which I have checked out … 65-70% and if you have 50% win rate…", word at 825.3 s) agree. Whisper hi garbled the number. **Verified (2 of 3)** |
| C1b | «टाइम फ्रेम आप 5 मिनट ही यूज़ करोगे और कोई बड़ा टाइम फ्रेम पर नहीं जाना है» "You will use the 5-minute timeframe only; don't go to a bigger one." | same, [16:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=1002s) | Captions + Whisper hi agree |
| C1c | «1:3 प्रीमियम में कितना मैं स्पॉट में 1:3 लगा रहा» "I'm applying the 1:3 on the spot chart." | same, [18:56](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=1136s) | Captions + Whisper hi agree |
| C2 | «स्ट्रेटजी अच्छी है एक्यूरेसी समवे अराउंड 60% की निकलती है 60 टू 70% निकल जाता है लेकिन वो एक्यूरेसी सबसे ज्यादा हाई तब रहती है जब आप वन ऑवर टाइम फ्रेम में 920 को यूज़ करते हो» "Accuracy comes out around 60%, 60 to 70%, highest when you use 9-20 on the 1-hour." Also «जब आप 5 मिनट के टाइम फ्रेम में जाते हो तो उसकी एक्यूरेसी काफी ज़्यादा लो हो जाती है» "On 5 minutes accuracy gets much lower." | "9/20 EMA Strategy Explained on 15-Minute Chart \| Crypto" (19 Nov 2025, 147K), [11:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppuEOzpEYlg&t=706s), [12:08](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppuEOzpEYlg&t=728s) | Captions + Whisper hi + Whisper en ("accuracy is around 60% 60 to 70%") — **verified 3-way**. **Contradicts C1b** (5-min only) |
| C3 | «तो आपका टाइम फ़्रेम जितना ज़्यादा बड़ा होगा, उसकी एक्यूरेसी उतनी अच्छी होगी।» "The bigger your timeframe, the better the accuracy." | uK7epk8-r9o (3 Jul 2025, 309K), [0:13:54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uK7epk8-r9o&t=834s) | Captions |
| C4 | «इंडेक्स के अंदर 10 दिन में से तीन या चार दिन अच्छा आपको ट्रेंड दे द ग लेकिन बाकी टाइम पर अगर मार्केट साइड वेज ही देगा तो आपको चांसेस कम है कि इस स्ट्रेटजी से … पैसा बन पाए» "In an index 3–4 days out of 10 trend; the rest are sideways and this strategy is unlikely to make money." | "9-20 EMA Strategy \| बड़ा Move पकड़ना सीखो!" (17 Jun 2024, 508K), [15:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r96JUvEANlE&t=925s) | Captions (his own fair caveat) |
| C5 | «90 80 20% बट 60 टू 70% की एक्यूरेसी ये स्ट्रेटजी देती है» "Not 90/80%, but this strategy gives 60–70% accuracy." | "1 Strategy for Option Buying" (12 Jun 2026, 160K), [0:07:55](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXhidQTuhEU&t=475s) | Captions only; Whisper heard the sentence around it but not the numbers → **owner listen** |
| C6 | His own 9/20 backtest on SOLANA — SOLUSDT 1h, 3 Sep 2025–3 Sep 2026 (deeepr.ai, in his IG bio "Building … @deeepr.ai"; screen: 110 of 383 won, +58.7%, worst −60.6%; earlier notes said BTC — corrected 9 Oct 2026 from the on-screen frame): "58% in one year … 383 trades, 110 trades, 29% win rate … but still this strategy is way more profitable"; «60 परसेंट इसने डॉडाउन भी अपने को दिखाया» | "I Tested 5 Trading Strategies" (4 Sep 2026, 84K), [27:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH_NG_aby8&t=1670s) (383 trades 1684 s, 110 1687 s), drawdown [28:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH_NG_aby8&t=1725s) | Whisper en + hi + captions agree — **verified**. 110/383 = 28.7%. **His own tool contradicts C1/C2/C5** |
| C7 | «10 में से आठ बार अगर मैं इसको कैप से करता हूं उसे बिग बार के बाद से डायरेक्शन होता है» "8 times out of 10, after a big bar, it goes in that direction." | "Live #02 \| Big Bar Strategy Explained" (13 Apr 2023, 381K), [18:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpOwBYb3H7c&t=1132s) | Captions (rough); Whisper partial → **owner listen** |
| C8 | «15 पॉइंट से ऊपर की … कैंडल स्टिक बंटी है … वो बिग बार में नहीं आई है निफ़्टी» "Candles above 15 points are not a big bar in NIFTY." | "Important Update on the Big Bar Strategy" (9 Jul 2023, 923K), [6:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kHLk5tWBRg&t=365s) | Captions; Whisper heard "20-20 पॉइंट … निफ्टी … कोई ट्रेड नहीं बनेगा" → owner listen for "15" |

His record claims (P&L, ROI) are in section 12 and `record_claims.json`.

## 1. Sources and weight

| Tier | What | Use |
|---|---|---|
| A — his own channel, free videos | 9-20 (Ma1HnAXxww4, r96JUvEANlE, lp57qG4Evj0, uK7epk8-r9o, GZBl62jO8SY, ppuEOzpEYlg, ICu87PqKg3Y, CXhidQTuhEU, p777ChfWzR4, 8tHfwMQ5GqU, PY37qTnDjbA, utpVjURS8Mo, RYV_0mUZ7RA), 9 EMA scalping (AO5tS1hqMao 644K, Gc-xw57Zrg8), Big Bar (3kHLk5tWBRg, KpOwBYb3H7c, tLQuEUQAvYE, LJR0k97INd8, aIo2xnv_5b8, S_oA9u60WEY, JDa9P73OlIA), P&L vlogs | Rules **and** on-screen quotes |
| B — paid | "9-20 Strategy by Stock Burner" (learn.stockburner.in course 18), "Big Bar Strategy" (course 3), Pro Scalping Masterclass | **Not used.** He says the full "terms and conditions" are there (Ma1H 21:37–22:02; KpOw 0:10:57, 0:29:42; 3kHL 0:02:54, 0:15:36). The test uses only what he teaches for free, all readings as variants |
| C — third parties | Sensibull verified P&L page (his link), Moneycontrol 23 & 25 Aug 2023, critics (A Digital Blogger, Rushi Trades, Zubare Trades) | Record audit; critics' claims are leads only |

## 2. Strategy A — 9-20 EMA (the strategy behind C1/C2/C5)

| Item | Rule as taught (quote · source) | Coded as |
|---|---|---|
| Indicators | EMA 9 + EMA 20, default settings ([r96 5:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r96JUvEANlE&t=337s); uK7 0:05:08) | TradingView EMA on candle closes, continuous across days |
| Bias | «9 ए में जिस डायरेक्शन में ऊपर है तो कॉल का साइड का ट्रेड बनेगा नीचे है तो पुट साइड का ट्रेड बनेगा» "9 above 20 → call side; below → put side" ([Ma1H 11:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=705s)); uK7 0:07:08; ppuE 0:03:19 | long only while EMA9 > EMA20, short only while below |
| Range → breakout → cross | «किसी भी रेंज के ब्रेकआउट के बाद क्रॉस ओवर हो रहा है जिस डायरेक्शन में» ([Ma1H 11:39](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=699s)); ICu87 0:05:57; GZBl 0:09:05 | **our geometry:** a close beyond the high/low of the previous 12 candles within 12 candles before the cross or after it |
| First pullback | «क्रॉसओवर आता है 9 ईएमए ऊपर रहती है 20 ईएमए नीचे रहता है और प्राइस … फर्स्ट टाइम 920 को टेस्ट करता है और प्राइस सपोर्ट लेने लगता है तो वहां पर आपकी एक लॉन्ग पोजीशन बनती है» ([lp57 5:43](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp57qG4Evj0&t=343s), Whisper en agrees); uK7 0:08:42–0:09:20; ICu87 0:06:54 "first attempt at the 9 EMA is always powerful" | first entry candle after the cross (headline); variant: price must first leave the 9 EMA then come back; variant: every pullback (ppuE 0:03:34) |
| Entry candle | «एक एंट्री का एक कैंडल ढूंढना है कि जो 9 एमए के आसपास से रिजेक्शन ले … 9 एमए को क्रॉस करके … बुलिश कैंडल» ([Ma1H 12:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=777s)) | low ≤ EMA9 and close beyond both EMAs, green (red for shorts); entry at its close. Variant: any colour |
| Stop | «स्टॉप लॉस हाई का बनता लो प» entry-candle high/low ([Ma1H 13:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=789s)); ICu87 0:08:38; or swing (uK7 0:09:04; ppuE 0:06:31; r96 11:02) | entry candle (headline); swing = extreme of last 5 candles |
| Target | minimum 1:3 on spot (C1, C1c); «1:3 मिल गया है आप एग्जिट करो» for ATM/OTM ([Ma1H 17:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=1029s)); 1:2 (ICu87 0:07:36; uK7 0:14:07) | 1:3 (headline), 1:2, 1:1 (generous) |
| Ride (ITM) | exit when price closes beyond the 20 EMA ([Ma1H 17:20](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma1HnAXxww4&t=1040s); [r96 9:21](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r96JUvEANlE&t=561s); PY37 0:17:39) | variants "ride" and "1:3 or 20-EMA close, whichever first" |
| Timeframe | 5-min only (C1b); 5-min best intraday (r96 3:24, Whisper agrees); 1-hour most accurate (C2), bigger = better (C3) | 5m headline; 15m; 1h (index: may hold up to 5 sessions — our cap) |
| Higher TF | trade with the 1-hour trend ([r96 12:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r96JUvEANlE&t=764s)) | "all conditions" variant: 1h EMA9 vs EMA20 agrees |
| No chop | «920 ऊपर नीचे ऊपर नीचे क्रॉसओवर कर रहा है … साइडवेज ज़ोन है। आपको ट्रेड नहीं करना है» (uK7 0:14:44); ppuE 0:03:44; CXhid 0:18:11 | "all conditions": skip a cross that follows ≥2 other crosses in 12 candles |
| Crypto | 1h most effective (ppuE 0:02:43); 15m "medium"; volume window 6 pm–12 am IST (uK7 0:13:46) | BTC/ETH 1h, 15m, 5m; IST window variant |

**Not coded:** volume (spot index has none; he reads it on futures), S/R / neckline / change-of-character confirmations,
premium-chart confirmation and "whichever side's premium is running", VIX, adding/averaging, trailing to each candle low,
weekday preferences. Two variants from CXhidQTuhEU (found after the first NIFTY run) are marked `_added_after_first_pass`.

## 3. Strategy B — 9 EMA scalping (AO5tS1hqMao, 644K; Gc-xw57Zrg8)

Bias: close below the 9 EMA and the 9 acting as resistance → puts only (AO5t [0:08:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO5tS1hqMao&t=517s)).
Entry at the close of a candle that rejects the 9 EMA; SL its high; **exit if any candle closes back above the 9 EMA**
(AO5t [0:09:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO5tS1hqMao&t=584s)); time stop 2–3 candles (AO5t 0:10:12); 5-min (AO5t 0:04:39; Gc-x 0:04:27);
target ≥1:2, 2–3 trades a day, stop after 2 SLs (Gc-x 0:05:21, 0:05:47, 0:14:28). Tested on spot (Gc-x 0:08:53 says spot;
AO5t says premium chart — contradiction noted). No numeric claim; included because it is his most-viewed setup.

## 4. Strategy C — Big Bar (his signature scalp, 2023; sold as a course)

Free-video rules: 5-min (3kHL 0:10:26); 9 EMA decides the side (3kHL 0:09:20–0:09:53); support at the 9 EMA, then a big bar
(3kHL 0:06:22; LJR 0:04:02); big bar = «प्रीवियस वन तू थ्री कैंडल से काफी हेल्दी कैंडल» (tLQu 0:10:31); ≤15 points in NIFTY (C8);
entry «क्लोजिंग पे तुरंत» (3kHL 0:07:19); SL the bar's low (3kHL 0:11:48); 5–10% premium target, max 3 candles / 15 min
(KpOw 0:15:41); avoid the first 15 minutes (KpOw 0:16:40), no forced trades after 3 PM (3kHL 0:14:05), ~3 trades a day.
**Not codeable faithfully:** the premium chart must also show the big bar (3kHL 0:06:57 — needs every strike's premium
candles), S/R and "trap" filters, and the paid "terms and conditions". Tested as a **spot-chart proxy** with our
size definitions (k × prior 3 ranges, body share, the 15-point cap scaled to 0.08% of price; 0.155% = "15 premium
points" reading). His only numeric claim (C7) is measured directly as a premise.

**Not tested (and why):** Gamma Blast / zero-hero (expiry-day long straddle; "heavy OI" undefined, no exit rule, he calls it
"थोड़ा सा जुआ"); ORB (no performance claim; queued); 200 EMA (BTC only, he tells Indian traders not to use it); trendline
("any two points" = arbitrary); daily "Market Analysis" predictions on @tradewithburner (343 videos, discretionary
conditional levels — candidate for a later record audit).

## 5. Variants (pre-registered)

`prereg/sb_rules_20261009T1507Z_v1_prerun.json` (9-20 + 9 EMA, before any full run) and
`prereg/sb_rules_20261009T1518Z_v2_bigbar_cxhid_prerun.json` (adds Big Bar and the two CXhid variants; the v1 variants
unchanged). 9-20: 17 index variants + 11 crypto; 9 EMA: 4; Big Bar: 9 + 2 premise definitions. Readings for critics:
**Exact** (the 65–70% video read literally), **All conditions** (every filter he names), **Generous** (1:1 target, zero cost,
favourable intrabar order). No parameter was changed after seeing a result.

## 6. Data

- **NIFTY 50 / NIFTY BANK spot, 1-minute**, 2015-01-09 → 2026-05-15 (Kaggle debashis74017/nifty-50-minute-data;
  NSE/niftyindices are geo-blocked here). `sb_backtest.py build` → `data_raw/<SYM>_m1.npz`; 2,799 days, 5 short special
  sessions excluded from entries (`<SYM>_gaps.json`).
- **Second source:** Hugging Face thetrademarkk/india-index-options-1m spot index, 2021-05 → 2026-07 (`hfindex`,
  `crosscheck`): 1-minute closes match (median gap 0 pt); same rules give target-hit 21.5% vs 21.6% (NIFTY exact).
- **NIFTY weekly option premiums**, 1-minute (same HF set, CC BY-NC → cross-check only): real-premium P&L for the NIFTY
  headline trades on every 4th weekly expiry (`options --every 4`; sample rule fixed before running).
- **BTC/ETH:** Binance BTCUSDT/ETHUSDT spot 5-minute klines (data.binance.vision), 2019-01 → 2026-09, as a proxy for his
  Delta Exchange perpetuals (basis and funding ignored).
- **NIFTY FIN SERVICE (FINNIFTY)** 1-minute, same Kaggle set, 2015-01-09 → 2026-05-15 (options only exist from 2021; the
  2015–2020 years are a signal test).
- Disk: `data_raw` ≈ 0.48 GB including 66 NIFTY option expiry files (≈ 0.17 GB).

## 7. Execution and costs

Signals on spot candles (09:15-aligned, never spanning days). Entry at the entry candle's close; stop/target followed on
1-minute bars from the next minute; **stop first** in a shared minute; gaps fill at the open; "optimistic intrabar" upper
bound reported. Intraday: entries 09:20–15:00, flat 15:20 (our assumption; 1-hour index variants may hold 5 sessions).
**Costs** (he trades index options while drawing 1:3 on spot): statutory charges in force on each date (STT on option
sale 0.017% → 0.05% (Jun 2016) → 0.0625% (Apr 2023) → 0.1% (Oct 2024) → 0.15% (Apr 2026); NSE charge 0.053% → 0.03553%;
GST 18%; stamp; SEBI fee) on an ATM premium (0.5% of spot NIFTY, 0.6% BANK NIFTY) **plus 0.5 premium point slippage per
side (NIFTY; 1.0 BANK NIFTY)**, divided by delta 0.5 → spot points; plus ₹20/order brokerage as a share of the fixed
₹1,000 risk. Median cost ≈ 2.2 NIFTY points ≈ 23% of the median 12.5-point stop. Slippage ×0.5 / ×2 sensitivity and a
**zero-cost run** on every headline variant. Crypto: Delta taker 0.05% + 18% GST per side + 0.01% slippage.
Money: ₹1,00,000, fixed ₹1,000 risk per trade, no compounding; blown date reported.

## 8. What we measure

Per variant/instrument/year: trades, **target-hit rate (his "accuracy") with 95% Wilson CI**, win rate (net R > 0), avg R
with CI, break-even win rate, PF, total R, max DD, longest losing run, years at ≥60% (his lowest number), cost/risk.

## 9. His premises, measured directly

- **P1 "65–70% / 60–70% accuracy at 1:3"**: target-hit rate of the exact and all-conditions readings.
- **P2 "bigger timeframe = more accurate" vs "5-min only"**: same rules on 5m / 15m / 1h, zero cost.
- **P3 "3–4 trend days in 10"**: share of days whose open→close move ≥ 60% of the day's range (our definition).
- **PB "8 of 10 after a big bar"**: after a big bar, does the next candle continue / does price go ½ bar further before
  the bar's low? Baseline: ordinary candles of the same colour on the same side of the 9 EMA.

## 10. Critics' arguments, answered by design

1. *"Wrong timeframe"* → 5m (his 65–70% video), 15m, 1h (his "most accurate"), with zero costs too.
2. *"He trades options, not spot"* → he puts the 1:3 on spot himself (C1c); real NIFTY option premiums as a check.
3. *"A bot can't apply his filters"* → all-conditions variant + the list of what isn't coded; the paid course isn't used.
4. *"Costs are made up"* → statutory rates by date, stated slippage with ×0.5/×2, and zero-cost results everywhere.
5. *"Crypto is different"* → BTC/ETH on 1h/15m/5m, his exchange's fees.
6. *"Show the data"* → every trade in `data_raw/trades/`, rules, code, prereg copies, second source.
7. *"He's profitable, look at his P&L"* → his own verified Sensibull record, reported in full, including the good months.

## 11. Spot checks (5 trades recomputed by hand from the printed candles)

NIFTY exact (seed 11): 2022-04-01 long +2.862R (cross 09:20, entry 09:30 candle low 17460.30 ≤ EMA9 17473.35, close
17485.65 > both EMAs, target 17561.70 hit 13:29); 2022-04-05 short −1.194R (entry 10:05 candle, stop 18004.25 hit 10:27);
2022-06-22 long +2.684R (14:35 and 14:40 candles correctly rejected — red / close below EMA9); 2023-02-10 short −1.192R;
2023-12-26 long (setup carried over the holiday; 15:05 candle skipped by the 15:00 entry cut-off). Big Bar BB1 2017-07-24
short −1.358R (range 7.0 ≥ 2 × 3.30, body 5.65, cap 7.97). All match the engine to the rupee/point.

## 12. His PUBLIC RECORD (brief D): Sensibull-verified daily P&L vs his own claims

**Source:** web.sensibull.com/verified-pnl/laureled-lettuce ("Stock Burner @kirola_dinesh", positions from **Zerodha**),
linked from 22 of his video descriptions as bit.ly/stockburner_sensibull; all 261 daily cards pulled by the evidence agent
(`evidence/snapshots/pnl/sensibull_daily.csv`, 2026-10-09). Sensibull: "captures all positions and P&L at the time of
sharing from the broker's backend"; "**If P&Ls on some days are missing, it is suspicious.**"
(blog.sensibull.com/2022/11/09/verified-profit-and-loss-by-sensibull/). Cards show position P&L; charges are not deducted.

**Moneycontrol (23 Aug 2023, article 11241491):** he "allegedly edited his P&L statement of August 3 to show that he made
a profit of around Rs 5.6 lakh, when it should really have been lower at Rs 4.3 lakh", in a vlog titled "How I made profit
of +5 lakh Nifty Expiry-150% RoI"; he released an apology video ("I do scalping from my phone and I had placed exit orders on
it but my (computer) screen showed the trades as running"). Zerodha committed to blocking him from its referral programme;
25 Aug 2023 follow-up + Angel One client mail (`evidence/screens/0[1-5]_mc_*`).

Results (`sb_record_audit.json`):
- **Coverage:** 322 NSE sessions from 17 May 2023 to 4 Sep 2024; 258 shared (224 trade days + 37 "no trade day" cards),
  **64 never shared**. Longest gap **6 Jul → 11 Aug 2023 (27 sessions)** — it contains **3 Aug 2023, the disputed
  "150% ROI" day**, so the verified record cannot confirm either figure. Second gap 1–17 Jan 2024 (13 sessions); the 8 January
  days he did share are all green. The day he bought the 23700 CE (19 Jun 2024) is also unshared.
- **What the shared days show (fair):** +₹1.45 crore position P&L over 224 trade days (2023: ₹60.9L, 2024: ₹83.9L), 79%
  green days, average green day +₹1.24L, average red day −₹1.59L; best +₹10.67L (6 Dec 2023 BANKNIFTY 46800 PE), worst
  −₹13.18L (20 Jun 2024 NIFTY 23700 CE). On these cards he was a large, mostly-green option scalper.
- **Claims vs verified:** May 2024 claimed ₹10.32L, verified ₹11.78L (consistent); 20 Jun 2024 claimed ~₹13L loss, verified
  −₹13.18L (consistent — he disclosed it); April 2024 claimed "~₹8.6L" (to 28 Apr) and "~₹10L", verified ₹6.39L / ₹6.56L
  (2 sessions unshared); CY2023 claimed +₹94L in the F&O account, verified ₹60.9L for 17 May–31 Dec (Jan–mid-May not on
  Sensibull); May 2023 claimed net −₹3L (whole month), verified +₹0.88L for 17–31 May only; July 2023: 19 of 21 sessions unshared.
- **Charges (his own words):** «दिस पीनल इज नॉट ऑफ द अकाउंट विच आई ट्रेड डेली … प्रॉफिट था 56.6 लाख का था … फ टू सिक्स मंथ
  के टाइम पीरियड … टैक्सेस चार्जेस थे 641 लाख … 7.76 लाख के लॉस में गया था» — ₹56.6L gross over ~5–6 months became a
  ~₹7.5L net loss after ₹64.1L of taxes and charges (2pvN_rLArYI 0:01:35; feOhxWRT_m0). The verified cards are gross.
- **ROI framing (his own words):** "50% in one week" on "₹5L capital" while the demat held ₹20L (xWVrYE5piBg 0:11:13 vs
  0:13:53); "200%" on "₹5L per-trade capital" with "₹20L in backup" (IB9MEqzOP34 0:07:46 vs 0:10:50); Moneycontrol's 150% ROI.
- **Market-data checks (no impossibility found):** 20 Jun 2024 — NIFTY's high was 23,664 (19 Jun) and 23,624 (20 Jun), never
  23,700, so the 23700 CE expired worthless; the 20 Jun open gapped up 64.75 points (he said "70"); option data: 23700 CE
  traded 21.8–49.7 on 18 Jun, closed 14.8 on 19 Jun, opened 20.0 on 20 Jun and decayed to 0.05 — consistent with his
  "bought 50/40/30, average ~34, exits 13–20, ~₹26L position, ~₹13L loss" (≈77,000 units). 6 Dec 2023 (best verified
  day, BANKNIFTY 46800 PE +₹10.67L): BANK NIFTY opened 47,257, fell to 46,750 and closed 46,802 (card: 46,812.85) — a put
  bought before the fall is consistent. BTC Nov 2024 entry 97,594 / mark 98,736 inside
  the 20–25 Nov range; Apr 2025 BTC rallied 83k → 94.7k into his short; 21 Sep 2026 ETH rose 2,638 → 2,769 and BTC
  81,271 → 86,345, large enough for his stated −$80/ETH and −$2,145/BTC.

## 13. Not testable / needs the owner

- Owner listens: C5 (CXhid 0:07:55 "60 to 70%"), C7 (KpOw 0:18:52 "8 of 10"), C8 (3kHL 0:06:05 "15 points").
- Paid course content (never bought; not needed for the claims tested).
- Net-of-charges Zerodha P&L (the Console verified link 255271f5 is behind Cloudflare from here).
- Dhan P&L (2024; one-day links) and Delta Exchange crypto P&L (share links only).
- The 3 Aug 2023 Console/contract notes (Moneycontrol's ₹5.6L vs ₹4.3L).
- Big Bar premium-chart condition (needs every strike's premium candles per trade).
- 343 daily prediction videos on @tradewithburner (speaker check + conditional levels) — next record audit.

## 14. Results (PRELIMINARY; details in BACKTEST.md)

| Test | Trades | His number | Measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9-20 **exact**, NIFTY 5m 1:3 (2015–2026) | 5,782 | 65–70% accuracy | **22.5%** target hit (21.4–23.6); win (net) 29.9%; avg −0.214R after costs (+0.081R zero cost); **0 of 12 years ≥ 60%**; best year 26.7% (2022) |
| 9-20 exact, BANK NIFTY | 5,819 | 65–70% | **20.1%** (19.1–21.1); −0.194R (+0.006R zero cost); 0 of 12 years |
| 9-20 exact, FINNIFTY | 5,821 | 65–70% | **19.8%** (18.8–20.8); −0.331R (−0.013R zero cost); 0 of 12 years |
| 9-20 all conditions, NIFTY / BANK NIFTY / FINNIFTY | 2,642 / 2,648 / 2,689 | 65–70% | 24.3% / 21.7% / 20.6%; −0.229R / −0.225R / −0.409R |
| 9-20 generous 1:1, NIFTY / BANK NIFTY | 5,963 / 6,075 | — | 50.9% / 47.9% target hit; still −0.258R / −0.214R after costs |
| 9-20 1-hour 1:3, NIFTY / BANK NIFTY / FINNIFTY (his "most accurate") | 506 / 522 / 506 | 60–70% | **27.7% / 28.0% / 27.3%**; avg +0.028R / +0.095R / +0.005R, every 95% CI includes 0 |
| 9-20 crypto 1h 1:3 (his market today), BTC / ETH | 1,601 / 1,660 | 60–70% | **26.1% / 25.2%**; −0.197R / −0.163R; 1:1: 51.0% / 50.7% |
| His own BTC 9/20 backtest (C6) | 383 | — | 110 winners = **29%** (his words) — matches ours |
| Premise P2: 5m / 15m / 1h (NIFTY, zero cost) | | bigger = better | target hit 22.5% / 15.3% / 27.7% |
| Premise P3: trend days (NIFTY / BANK NIFTY / FINNIFTY) | 2,794 days | 3–4 in 10 | 39.5% / 36.4% / 38.9% — **his caveat is right** |
| 9 EMA scalping exact (AO5t), NIFTY / BANK NIFTY / FINNIFTY | 25,984 / 28,371 / 27,150 | — | win 33.3% / 32.3% / 30.7%; −0.292R / −0.269R / −0.392R (zero cost +0.085R / −0.007R / +0.026R) |
| Big Bar BB1 (spot proxy), NIFTY | 201 | — | 1:2 hit 9.0%; win 33.3%; −0.319R (+0.024R zero cost) |
| Premise PB "8 of 10 after a big bar", NIFTY | 203 big bars | 80% | next candle continues **49.8%** (ordinary candles 48.1%) |
| Second source (HF), NIFTY exact 2021–2026 | 2,533 / 2,520 | | 21.5% vs 21.6% target hit; 93% identical entry minutes |
| **Real NIFTY option premiums**, exact, ATM (every 4th weekly expiry, May 2021 → May 2026) | 625 | — | option trades won after costs **26.6%** (spot target hit 21.9%); avg gross −0.97 premium pts, costs 2.16, net −3.13; 1 lot: −₹1,17,597 (gross −₹48,302). 1 strike ITM: 28.2%, −₹1,13,551 |
| Real premiums, all conditions / generous 1:1 / ride (ATM) | 289 / 640 / 656 | — | won 32.5% / 46.1% / 19.7%; gross +0.81 / +0.11 / +0.18 pts, net −1.34 / −2.05 / −1.98 pts per trade |

## 15. Clip candidates (him stating the claims)

| ★ | Video | Cut | Says | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★ | ppuEOzpEYlg | 11:44–11:58 | "accuracy around 60%, 60 to 70% … highest on the 1-hour" | 3-way verified |
| ★★★ | Ma1HnAXxww4 | 13:29–13:46 | "minimum 1:3 … accuracy 65 to 70%" | captions + Whisper en |
| ★★★ | LkH_NG_aby8 | 27:58–28:12 (1678–1692 s) | "383 trades, 110 … 29% win rate" (his own tool) | Whisper en + hi + captions |
| ★★ | LkH_NG_aby8 | 28:38–28:50 | "60% drawdown" | Whisper hi + captions |
| ★★ | Ma1HnAXxww4 | 16:40–16:47 | "5-minute only, don't go to a bigger timeframe" | captions + Whisper hi |
| ★★ | r96JUvEANlE | 15:24–15:38 | "3–4 days in 10 trend; otherwise this strategy won't make money" | captions (fairness clip) |
| ★★ | CXhidQTuhEU | 7:53–8:00 | "60 to 70% accuracy" | owner listen |
| ★ | KpOwBYb3H7c | 18:50–18:58 | "8 times out of 10 after a big bar" | owner listen |
| ★ | 2pvN_rLArYI | 1:35–2:05 | ₹56.6L gross → ₹64.1L charges → net loss | captions (record) |
| ★ | rMkxKGIBFR4 | 9:21–9:35 | "~₹13 lakh loss" (verified on Sensibull) | captions |
| ? | aIo2xnv_5b8 | 6:45–6:55 | «…सेटअप ये दिखा रहे कोर्स बेचे के लिए हां दिखा रहे हैं भैया कोर्स भेजना के लिए» ("showing setups to sell courses? yes") | captions only; probably banter — context check before any use |


---

# Results

# Stock Burner strategies: backtest results

_Generated by `tools/sb_backtest.py report`. Rules, sources and method: `BACKTEST_PLAN.md` and `sb_rules.json`. Target hit = the 1:3 (or stated) target reached on the spot chart before the stop. Win = trade closed with net R > 0 after costs. Money = fixed ₹1,000 risk per trade on a ₹1,00,000 account, no compounding._

- **NIFTY**: spot index 1-minute (kaggle), 2015-01-09 .. 2026-05-15, 1,048,140 minutes.
- **BANKNIFTY**: spot index 1-minute (kaggle), 2015-01-09 .. 2026-05-15, 1,048,121 minutes.
- **FINNIFTY**: spot index 1-minute (kaggle), 2015-01-09 .. 2026-05-15, 1,047,791 minutes.
- **BTCUSDT**: Binance spot 5-minute candles (proxy for his Delta Exchange perpetuals), 2019-01-01 .. 2026-10-01, 814,226 bars.
- **ETHUSDT**: Binance spot 5-minute candles (proxy for his Delta Exchange perpetuals), 2019-01-01 .. 2026-10-01, 814,226 bars.

## 9-20 EMA strategy

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | /week | Target hit (95% CI) | Win rate (net R>0) | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Total R | Max DD (R) | Longest losing run | ₹1L fixed ₹1k/trade | Years ≥60% target hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 5782 | 9.77 | 22.5% (21.4–23.6) | 29.9% | -0.214 | 0.76 | 35.9% | -1238 | 1249.1 | 22 | blown 2015-09-18 | 0 of 12 |
| NIFTY | ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 2642 | 4.46 | 24.3% (22.7–26.0) | 29.5% | -0.229 | 0.753 | 35.7% | -606 | 611.0 | 20 | blown 2016-06-07 | 0 of 12 |
| NIFTY | GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 5963 | 10.07 | 50.9% (49.7–52.2) | 50.6% | -0.258 | 0.584 | 63.7% | -1536 | 1542.4 | 12 | blown 2015-07-13 | 0 of 12 |
| NIFTY | 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 6057 | 10.23 | 0.0% (0.0–0.1) | 24.4% | -0.126 | 0.851 | 27.5% | -761 | 801.6 | 37 | blown 2016-11-04 | 0 of 12 |
| NIFTY | 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 506 | 0.85 | 27.7% (23.9–31.7) | 31.4% | +0.028 | 1.034 | 30.7% | +14 | 40.7 | 14 | ₹113,969 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 5819 | 9.83 | 20.1% (19.1–21.1) | 28.6% | -0.194 | 0.768 | 34.3% | -1129 | 1174.2 | 18 | blown 2016-06-13 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 2648 | 4.47 | 21.7% (20.2–23.3) | 27.0% | -0.225 | 0.743 | 33.2% | -596 | 645.7 | 29 | blown 2017-07-21 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 6075 | 10.26 | 47.9% (46.6–49.1) | 48.9% | -0.214 | 0.642 | 59.9% | -1301 | 1315.0 | 11 | blown 2015-12-07 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 6217 | 10.5 | 0.0% (-0.0–0.1) | 23.8% | -0.154 | 0.803 | 28.1% | -956 | 1010.1 | 31 | blown 2015-07-10 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 522 | 0.88 | 28.0% (24.3–32.0) | 33.5% | +0.095 | 1.121 | 31.0% | +50 | 39.4 | 14 | ₹149,503 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 5821 | 9.83 | 19.8% (18.8–20.8) | 28.0% | -0.331 | 0.645 | 37.6% | -1930 | 1945.2 | 23 | blown 2015-05-15 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 2689 | 4.54 | 20.6% (19.1–22.1) | 25.5% | -0.409 | 0.59 | 36.7% | -1101 | 1113.2 | 26 | blown 2015-12-04 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 6078 | 10.27 | 48.0% (46.8–49.3) | 47.6% | -0.337 | 0.497 | 64.7% | -2046 | 2049.7 | 16 | blown 2015-06-17 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 6194 | 10.46 | 0.0% (0.0–0.1) | 22.7% | -0.261 | 0.708 | 29.3% | -1616 | 1627.9 | 37 | blown 2015-07-17 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 506 | 0.85 | 27.3% (23.6–31.3) | 32.0% | +0.005 | 1.006 | 31.9% | +3 | 63.7 | 20 | ₹102,650 | 0 of 12 |
| BTCUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1601 | 3.96 | 26.1% (24.0–28.3) | 26.2% | -0.197 | 0.785 | 31.1% | -315 | 334.8 | 22 | blown 2022-09-30 | 0 of 8 |
| BTCUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1251 | 3.09 | 27.3% (24.9–29.8) | 27.3% | -0.135 | 0.848 | 30.7% | -168 | 200.8 | 21 | blown 2023-09-09 | 0 of 8 |
| BTCUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | 2034 | 5.03 | 51.0% (48.8–53.2) | 50.0% | -0.233 | 0.623 | 61.6% | -474 | 475.0 | 9 | blown 2021-03-18 | 0 of 8 |
| BTCUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 2279 | 5.64 | 35.1% (33.1–37.0) | 35.3% | -0.118 | 0.844 | 39.3% | -270 | 296.5 | 20 | blown 2022-06-04 | 0 of 8 |
| BTCUSDT | CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 6801 | 16.82 | 25.0% (24.0–26.1) | 24.9% | -0.506 | 0.551 | 37.5% | -3444 | 3456.2 | 23 | blown 2019-02-27 | 0 of 8 |
| ETHUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1660 | 4.11 | 25.2% (23.2–27.3) | 25.4% | -0.163 | 0.814 | 29.4% | -270 | 288.3 | 25 | blown 2023-02-20 | 0 of 8 |
| ETHUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1325 | 3.28 | 24.8% (22.5–27.1) | 25.0% | -0.169 | 0.807 | 29.2% | -224 | 242.8 | 21 | blown 2022-01-15 | 0 of 8 |
| ETHUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | 2029 | 5.02 | 50.7% (48.5–52.9) | 50.4% | -0.170 | 0.711 | 58.9% | -344 | 344.6 | 11 | blown 2022-03-13 | 0 of 8 |
| ETHUSDT | CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 2287 | 5.66 | 33.6% (31.7–35.5) | 33.8% | -0.114 | 0.847 | 37.7% | -261 | 283.7 | 18 | blown 2022-04-27 | 0 of 8 |
| ETHUSDT | CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 6804 | 16.83 | 26.2% (25.2–27.3) | 26.2% | -0.345 | 0.664 | 34.8% | -2350 | 2359.8 | 25 | blown 2019-03-25 | 0 of 8 |

**NIFTY, all 17 variants:** highest target-hit rate 50.9% (GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1); best average +0.028R (1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 168; variants with a positive average R after costs: 1.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 5782 | 22.5% | 29.9% | 67.7% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 2.27 | 1.273 | 35.9% | -0.214 | 0.76 | -1238 | 12.5 | 2.21 | 23.0% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 769, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1151} |
| 5m · cross only (no range filter) · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 6538 | 23.2% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 2.312 | 1.286 | 35.7% | -0.220 | 0.757 | -1440 | 11.68 | 2.21 | 24.0% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 937, 'skip_bad_day': 16, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1961} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · every pullback while 9/20 holds · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 12328 | 23.2% | 29.7% | 68.1% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 2.314 | 1.29 | 35.8% | -0.220 | 0.757 | -2717 | 11.55 | 2.21 | 24.3% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 2553, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 20585} |
| 5m · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA (uK7epk8-r9o) · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 5267 | 20.8% | 30.9% | 65.3% | 0.0% | 14.0% | 2.168 | 1.204 | 35.7% | -0.160 | 0.807 | -845 | 15.35 | 2.21 | 19.5% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 774, 'skip_bad_day': 14, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1715} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:2 | 5858 | 32.8% | 36.6% | 61.2% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 1.58 | 1.269 | 44.5% | -0.227 | 0.718 | -1330 | 12.4 | 2.21 | 23.1% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 736, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 843} |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 5963 | 50.9% | 50.6% | 46.9% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 0.714 | 1.253 | 63.7% | -0.258 | 0.584 | -1536 | 12.3 | 2.21 | 23.2% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 678, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 393} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 6057 | 0.0% | 24.4% | 49.3% | 40.9% | 9.8% | 2.946 | 1.115 | 27.5% | -0.126 | 0.851 | -761 | 12.3 | 2.21 | 23.2% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 652, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| 5m · r96JUvEANlE trend ride: breakout + cross · SL swing5 · exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 6057 | 0.0% | 26.3% | 27.5% | 61.6% | 10.9% | 2.072 | 0.866 | 29.5% | -0.094 | 0.853 | -570 | 17.75 | 2.21 | 17.5% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 652, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 or a close beyond the 20 EMA, whichever first | 6057 | 19.2% | 28.0% | 47.4% | 28.9% | 4.4% | 2.07 | 1.116 | 35.0% | -0.223 | 0.722 | -1353 | 12.3 | 2.21 | 23.2% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 652, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 2642 | 24.3% | 29.5% | 68.9% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 2.37 | 1.316 | 35.7% | -0.229 | 0.753 | -606 | 10.9 | 2.21 | 25.6% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 1192, 'skip_htf': 10441, 'skip_time': 1133, 'skip_bad_day': 14, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 113} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · any candle colour · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 6083 | 23.9% | 30.0% | 67.5% | 0.0% | 8.6% | 2.238 | 1.397 | 38.4% | -0.306 | 0.687 | -1863 | 10.45 | 2.21 | 26.3% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 975, 'skip_bad_day': 22, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1498} |
| 15m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1890 | 15.3% | 36.1% | 55.8% | 0.0% | 28.9% | 1.726 | 1.107 | 39.1% | -0.085 | 0.88 | -160 | 21.9 | 2.22 | 15.1% | {'crosses': 2760, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 193, 'skip_bad_day': 3, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 33} |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 506 | 27.7% | 31.4% | 68.2% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 2.691 | 1.193 | 30.7% | +0.028 | 1.034 | +14 | 50.42 | 2.22 | 9.3% | {'crosses': 765, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 157, 'skip_bad_day': 2, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 18} |
| 1h · first pullback after departure · SL swing5 · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 486 | 25.3% | 30.2% | 69.1% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 2.631 | 1.206 | 31.4% | -0.046 | 0.946 | -22 | 65.35 | 2.22 | 8.3% | {'crosses': 765, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 144, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 30} |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:2 · may hold 5 sessions | 506 | 36.2% | 37.7% | 62.1% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.841 | 1.197 | 39.4% | -0.050 | 0.933 | -25 | 50.65 | 2.22 | 9.2% | {'crosses': 765, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 157, 'skip_bad_day': 2, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 15} |
| CXhidQTuhEU 2026: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · SL swing5 · exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 5236 | 0.0% | 25.9% | 28.9% | 60.4% | 10.7% | 2.116 | 0.878 | 29.3% | -0.102 | 0.843 | -534 | 17.5 | 2.21 | 17.6% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 1192, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 545, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| CXhidQTuhEU 2026: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 4865 | 28.2% | 36.9% | 57.9% | 0.0% | 13.9% | 1.493 | 1.162 | 43.8% | -0.183 | 0.75 | -891 | 17.7 | 2.21 | 17.5% | {'crosses': 8775, 'skip_chop': 1192, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 712, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1580} |

</details>

NIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 22.5% | -0.214 | 22.5% | 30.4% | 0.081 | 1.119 | -0.213 | 22.5% / 0.082 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 24.3% | -0.229 | 24.3% | 29.8% | 0.102 | 1.147 | -0.228 | 24.4% / 0.104 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 50.9% | -0.258 | 50.9% | 51.8% | 0.039 | 1.082 | -0.256 | 51.0% / 0.04 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 0.0% | -0.126 | 0.0% | 27.1% | 0.172 | 1.281 | -0.126 | 0.0% / 0.172 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 27.7% | +0.028 | 27.7% | 31.4% | 0.13 | 1.175 | 0.028 | 27.7% / 0.13 |

NIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | -0.102 | -0.214 | -0.437 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | -0.102 | -0.229 | -0.485 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | -0.146 | -0.258 | -0.482 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | -0.013 | -0.126 | -0.35 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 0.052 | +0.028 | -0.022 |

NIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24.3% / 30.2% (493, -126R) | 29.4% / 33.0% (221, -43R) | 48.2% / 46.6% (504, -197R) | 0.0% / 24.6% (508, -50R) | 30.8% / 33.3% (39, +8R) |
| 2016 | 24.3% / 31.8% (531, -141R) | 23.5% / 27.8% (234, -108R) | 54.1% / 52.3% (551, -179R) | 0.0% / 23.9% (557, -77R) | 19.1% / 21.3% (47, -21R) |
| 2017 | 24.1% / 31.5% (527, -188R) | 23.2% / 28.7% (237, -111R) | 51.1% / 48.4% (554, -248R) | 0.0% / 23.3% (557, -260R) | 39.5% / 44.7% (38, +17R) |
| 2018 | 23.6% / 30.3% (508, -146R) | 25.1% / 30.6% (235, -61R) | 54.3% / 53.1% (529, -146R) | 0.0% / 25.8% (531, -74R) | 23.8% / 23.8% (42, -9R) |
| 2019 | 23.3% / 28.6% (497, -119R) | 25.6% / 29.1% (234, -60R) | 50.1% / 50.1% (509, -156R) | 0.0% / 22.9% (520, -98R) | 21.2% / 25.0% (52, -9R) |
| 2020 | 20.8% / 30.1% (509, -96R) | 18.7% / 24.5% (241, -86R) | 49.4% / 49.2% (524, -120R) | 0.0% / 24.8% (536, +22R) | 22.0% / 22.0% (41, -14R) |
| 2021 | 20.2% / 29.0% (510, -93R) | 23.9% / 31.3% (230, -21R) | 50.0% / 50.4% (520, -106R) | 0.0% / 24.9% (527, -55R) | 25.5% / 29.4% (51, +2R) |
| 2022 | 26.7% / 33.8% (521, +10R) | 26.4% / 34.0% (235, +3R) | 51.9% / 53.0% (530, -79R) | 0.0% / 27.7% (538, +81R) | 35.6% / 37.8% (45, +14R) |
| 2023 | 22.4% / 29.2% (500, -82R) | 23.3% / 27.5% (240, -50R) | 51.4% / 51.7% (516, -109R) | 0.0% / 24.1% (528, -35R) | 31.2% / 35.4% (48, +8R) |
| 2024 | 21.9% / 28.8% (525, -79R) | 27.4% / 32.1% (237, -4R) | 47.3% / 47.7% (539, -120R) | 0.0% / 23.1% (542, -60R) | 26.8% / 39.0% (41, +4R) |
| 2025 | 16.9% / 25.4% (492, -148R) | 21.8% / 25.5% (220, -61R) | 52.2% / 53.5% (510, -55R) | 0.0% / 21.3% (535, -147R) | 22.9% / 29.2% (48, -3R) |
| 2026 | 17.8% / 29.0% (169, -30R) | 23.1% / 30.8% (78, -4R) | 51.4% / 52.0% (177, -21R) | 0.0% / 29.8% (178, -9R) | 57.1% / 57.1% (14, +17R) |

**BANKNIFTY, all 17 variants:** highest target-hit rate 47.9% (GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1); best average +0.095R (1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 1 of 168; variants with a positive average R after costs: 2.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 5819 | 20.1% | 28.6% | 68.2% | 0.0% | 11.7% | 2.244 | 1.171 | 34.3% | -0.194 | 0.768 | -1129 | 40.9 | 4.66 | 16.3% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 878, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1643} |
| 5m · cross only (no range filter) · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 6858 | 20.8% | 27.8% | 69.5% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 2.312 | 1.186 | 33.9% | -0.212 | 0.752 | -1455 | 37.5 | 4.66 | 17.4% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 1177, 'skip_bad_day': 14, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2712} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · every pullback while 9/20 holds · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 12258 | 21.3% | 28.5% | 68.8% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 2.322 | 1.185 | 33.8% | -0.186 | 0.78 | -2283 | 38.0 | 4.66 | 17.2% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 2787, 'skip_bad_day': 20, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 22847} |
| 5m · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA (uK7epk8-r9o) · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 5433 | 17.7% | 28.3% | 67.2% | 0.0% | 15.1% | 2.124 | 1.126 | 34.6% | -0.205 | 0.746 | -1115 | 49.2 | 4.66 | 14.4% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 906, 'skip_bad_day': 16, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2177} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:2 | 5930 | 29.3% | 34.5% | 62.9% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 1.615 | 1.172 | 42.1% | -0.211 | 0.725 | -1252 | 40.9 | 4.66 | 16.3% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 798, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1179} |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 6075 | 47.9% | 48.9% | 49.1% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.784 | 1.17 | 59.9% | -0.214 | 0.642 | -1301 | 40.75 | 4.66 | 16.4% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 727, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 553} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 6217 | 0.0% | 23.8% | 49.1% | 41.1% | 9.8% | 2.626 | 1.024 | 28.1% | -0.154 | 0.803 | -956 | 40.4 | 4.66 | 16.5% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 687, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| 5m · r96JUvEANlE trend ride: breakout + cross · SL swing5 · exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 6217 | 0.0% | 25.7% | 27.3% | 61.9% | 10.8% | 1.899 | 0.801 | 29.7% | -0.107 | 0.821 | -664 | 59.7 | 4.66 | 12.6% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 687, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 or a close beyond the 20 EMA, whichever first | 6217 | 17.1% | 27.3% | 47.1% | 31.0% | 4.8% | 1.99 | 1.023 | 34.0% | -0.200 | 0.731 | -1244 | 40.4 | 4.66 | 16.5% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 687, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 2648 | 21.7% | 27.0% | 70.9% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 2.415 | 1.202 | 33.2% | -0.225 | 0.743 | -596 | 34.33 | 4.66 | 18.5% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 1369, 'skip_htf': 11443, 'skip_time': 1257, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 99} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · any candle colour · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 6163 | 20.6% | 28.1% | 69.2% | 0.0% | 10.2% | 2.25 | 1.244 | 35.6% | -0.263 | 0.706 | -1618 | 35.15 | 4.66 | 18.1% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 1099, 'skip_bad_day': 19, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2119} |
| 15m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1976 | 14.7% | 34.3% | 55.0% | 0.0% | 30.3% | 1.772 | 1.023 | 36.6% | -0.065 | 0.903 | -129 | 70.62 | 4.66 | 11.5% | {'crosses': 2765, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 178, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 52} |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 522 | 28.0% | 33.5% | 65.5% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 2.628 | 1.183 | 31.0% | +0.095 | 1.121 | +50 | 162.38 | 4.68 | 7.7% | {'crosses': 827, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 147, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 19} |
| 1h · first pullback after departure · SL swing5 · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 496 | 25.2% | 33.3% | 63.9% | 0.0% | 10.9% | 2.475 | 1.13 | 31.3% | +0.069 | 1.092 | +34 | 200.62 | 4.68 | 7.1% | {'crosses': 827, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 154, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 58} |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:2 · may hold 5 sessions | 524 | 35.3% | 37.6% | 61.5% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 1.847 | 1.168 | 38.7% | -0.034 | 0.953 | -18 | 162.93 | 4.68 | 7.7% | {'crosses': 827, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 146, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 15} |
| CXhidQTuhEU 2026: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · SL swing5 · exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 5304 | 0.0% | 25.5% | 28.8% | 60.7% | 10.6% | 1.925 | 0.816 | 29.8% | -0.118 | 0.806 | -627 | 58.83 | 4.66 | 12.7% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 1369, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 581, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| CXhidQTuhEU 2026: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 4872 | 25.6% | 35.6% | 58.3% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 1.498 | 1.085 | 42.0% | -0.167 | 0.761 | -813 | 59.77 | 4.66 | 12.6% | {'crosses': 9235, 'skip_chop': 1369, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 812, 'skip_bad_day': 13, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1895} |

</details>

BANKNIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 20.1% | -0.194 | 20.1% | 29.2% | 0.006 | 1.009 | -0.194 | 20.1% / 0.006 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 21.7% | -0.225 | 21.7% | 27.5% | -0.002 | 0.997 | -0.225 | 21.7% / -0.002 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 47.9% | -0.214 | 47.9% | 49.5% | -0.013 | 0.973 | -0.212 | 48.0% / -0.011 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 0.0% | -0.154 | 0.0% | 25.9% | 0.048 | 1.078 | -0.154 | 0.0% / 0.048 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 28.0% | +0.095 | 28.0% | 33.7% | 0.181 | 1.249 | 0.095 | 28.0% / 0.181 |

BANKNIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | -0.128 | -0.194 | -0.326 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | -0.149 | -0.225 | -0.377 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | -0.148 | -0.214 | -0.346 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | -0.087 | -0.154 | -0.287 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 0.112 | +0.095 | 0.061 |

BANKNIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23.9% / 31.1% (514, -56R) | 29.3% / 33.0% (215, -5R) | 50.5% / 50.8% (533, -120R) | 0.0% / 24.6% (541, -62R) | 36.2% / 40.4% (47, +21R) |
| 2016 | 20.9% / 29.9% (511, -108R) | 23.6% / 29.1% (237, -52R) | 51.2% / 51.0% (537, -120R) | 0.0% / 24.6% (548, -125R) | 28.9% / 35.6% (45, +9R) |
| 2017 | 18.3% / 25.2% (531, -214R) | 17.9% / 21.9% (251, -129R) | 45.6% / 46.5% (555, -206R) | 0.0% / 20.2% (575, -269R) | 13.9% / 27.8% (36, -14R) |
| 2018 | 18.8% / 28.7% (516, -125R) | 21.8% / 28.4% (225, -44R) | 46.9% / 48.0% (527, -133R) | 0.0% / 24.6% (541, -11R) | 34.9% / 37.2% (43, +15R) |
| 2019 | 17.9% / 23.9% (535, -184R) | 21.6% / 26.6% (241, -56R) | 45.8% / 46.3% (557, -153R) | 0.0% / 21.5% (564, -68R) | 26.1% / 30.4% (46, +3R) |
| 2020 | 23.2% / 32.0% (475, -9R) | 17.8% / 24.0% (242, -76R) | 52.3% / 53.7% (499, -31R) | 0.0% / 26.4% (512, -4R) | 27.3% / 38.6% (44, +10R) |
| 2021 | 21.5% / 28.2% (525, -67R) | 23.4% / 26.1% (222, -39R) | 49.6% / 50.7% (542, -72R) | 0.0% / 24.3% (547, -45R) | 25.5% / 29.1% (55, -3R) |
| 2022 | 21.7% / 31.3% (508, -42R) | 18.9% / 25.1% (227, -61R) | 48.2% / 49.9% (531, -86R) | 0.0% / 26.1% (545, +10R) | 28.9% / 37.8% (45, +8R) |
| 2023 | 19.0% / 28.4% (521, -107R) | 21.3% / 26.2% (244, -57R) | 43.0% / 44.6% (558, -155R) | 0.0% / 20.4% (573, -166R) | 32.6% / 32.6% (46, -1R) |
| 2024 | 16.6% / 26.8% (488, -120R) | 21.6% / 27.7% (213, -35R) | 45.1% / 46.9% (505, -105R) | 0.0% / 21.9% (526, -146R) | 16.0% / 24.0% (50, -17R) |
| 2025 | 17.9% / 27.6% (532, -111R) | 20.6% / 26.5% (257, -58R) | 46.7% / 48.1% (565, -112R) | 0.0% / 26.3% (577, -84R) | 28.3% / 28.3% (53, +2R) |
| 2026 | 24.5% / 35.0% (163, +15R) | 28.4% / 37.8% (74, +16R) | 54.2% / 54.8% (166, -8R) | 0.0% / 29.8% (168, +14R) | 58.3% / 66.7% (12, +17R) |

**FINNIFTY, all 17 variants:** highest target-hit rate 48.0% (GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1); best average +0.005R (1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 168; variants with a positive average R after costs: 1.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 5821 | 19.8% | 28.0% | 69.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 2.153 | 1.299 | 37.6% | -0.331 | 0.645 | -1930 | 16.75 | 3.25 | 24.3% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 858, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1442} |
| 5m · cross only (no range filter) · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 6776 | 20.2% | 27.6% | 69.8% | 0.0% | 10.0% | 2.193 | 1.319 | 37.6% | -0.348 | 0.635 | -2358 | 15.55 | 3.25 | 25.9% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 1059, 'skip_bad_day': 9, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2332} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · every pullback while 9/20 holds · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 12157 | 21.3% | 28.5% | 69.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 2.218 | 1.318 | 37.3% | -0.309 | 0.672 | -3752 | 15.6 | 3.25 | 25.7% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 2761, 'skip_bad_day': 9, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 21446} |
| 5m · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA (uK7epk8-r9o) · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 5368 | 18.0% | 27.9% | 67.5% | 0.0% | 14.5% | 2.102 | 1.225 | 36.8% | -0.297 | 0.664 | -1593 | 19.95 | 3.25 | 21.3% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 887, 'skip_bad_day': 8, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1969} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:2 | 5932 | 29.0% | 33.6% | 63.9% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 1.522 | 1.298 | 46.0% | -0.350 | 0.593 | -2078 | 16.65 | 3.25 | 24.4% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 791, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1008} |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 6078 | 48.0% | 47.6% | 49.4% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 0.697 | 1.276 | 64.7% | -0.337 | 0.497 | -2046 | 16.6 | 3.25 | 24.5% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 701, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 450} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 6194 | 0.0% | 22.7% | 51.5% | 39.3% | 9.2% | 2.791 | 1.155 | 29.3% | -0.261 | 0.708 | -1616 | 16.5 | 3.25 | 24.7% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 655, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| 5m · r96JUvEANlE trend ride: breakout + cross · SL swing5 · exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 6194 | 0.0% | 24.3% | 29.6% | 60.0% | 10.4% | 2.026 | 0.9 | 30.8% | -0.188 | 0.724 | -1163 | 24.1 | 3.25 | 18.3% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 655, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 or a close beyond the 20 EMA, whichever first | 6194 | 16.7% | 26.1% | 49.7% | 29.2% | 4.4% | 1.947 | 1.156 | 37.3% | -0.346 | 0.595 | -2141 | 16.5 | 3.25 | 24.7% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 655, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 2689 | 20.6% | 25.5% | 72.6% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 2.312 | 1.341 | 36.7% | -0.409 | 0.59 | -1101 | 14.3 | 3.25 | 27.8% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 1236, 'skip_htf': 11102, 'skip_time': 1240, 'skip_bad_day': 3, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 132} |
| 5m · breakout + cross · any candle colour · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 6128 | 20.7% | 27.8% | 69.5% | 0.0% | 9.7% | 2.133 | 1.426 | 40.1% | -0.438 | 0.575 | -2683 | 14.25 | 3.25 | 27.7% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 1122, 'skip_bad_day': 6, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1835} |
| 15m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1960 | 13.8% | 33.4% | 58.1% | 0.0% | 28.1% | 1.698 | 1.114 | 39.6% | -0.174 | 0.765 | -342 | 29.02 | 3.25 | 16.0% | {'crosses': 2876, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 217, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 27} |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 506 | 27.3% | 32.0% | 66.6% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 2.608 | 1.22 | 31.9% | +0.005 | 1.006 | +3 | 68.95 | 3.26 | 9.5% | {'crosses': 823, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 160, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 30} |
| 1h · first pullback after departure · SL swing5 · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 496 | 23.4% | 31.5% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 9.9% | 2.463 | 1.173 | 32.3% | -0.029 | 0.963 | -15 | 82.95 | 3.26 | 8.7% | {'crosses': 823, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 155, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 33} |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:2 · may hold 5 sessions | 509 | 34.8% | 37.1% | 61.5% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 1.802 | 1.218 | 40.3% | -0.097 | 0.874 | -49 | 69.05 | 3.26 | 9.5% | {'crosses': 823, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 159, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 23} |
| CXhidQTuhEU 2026: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · SL swing5 · exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 5360 | 0.0% | 24.1% | 31.2% | 58.7% | 10.2% | 2.057 | 0.916 | 30.8% | -0.199 | 0.714 | -1066 | 23.55 | 3.25 | 18.6% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 1236, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 539, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| CXhidQTuhEU 2026: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 4970 | 25.3% | 34.9% | 59.4% | 0.0% | 15.3% | 1.439 | 1.178 | 45.0% | -0.264 | 0.656 | -1312 | 23.7 | 3.25 | 18.6% | {'crosses': 8958, 'skip_chop': 1236, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 756, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1652} |

</details>

FINNIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 19.8% | -0.331 | 19.8% | 28.6% | -0.013 | 0.981 | -0.331 | 19.8% / -0.012 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 20.6% | -0.409 | 20.6% | 26.0% | -0.054 | 0.927 | -0.409 | 20.6% / -0.054 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 48.0% | -0.337 | 48.0% | 49.3% | -0.015 | 0.97 | -0.334 | 48.1% / -0.013 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 0.0% | -0.261 | 0.0% | 25.7% | 0.062 | 1.098 | -0.261 | 0.0% / 0.062 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 27.3% | +0.005 | 27.3% | 32.2% | 0.119 | 1.157 | 0.013 | 27.5% / 0.126 |

FINNIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | -0.206 | -0.331 | -0.583 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | -0.266 | -0.409 | -0.696 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | -0.209 | -0.337 | -0.591 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | -0.133 | -0.261 | -0.517 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 0.036 | +0.005 | -0.056 |

FINNIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20.9% / 28.1% (508, -214R) | 23.4% / 26.4% (231, -115R) | 48.0% / 46.7% (529, -241R) | 0.0% / 20.9% (536, -230R) | 32.6% / 39.5% (43, +14R) |
| 2016 | 18.7% / 26.3% (539, -295R) | 21.2% / 25.8% (240, -141R) | 49.7% / 46.1% (555, -270R) | 0.0% / 22.6% (562, -209R) | 30.2% / 37.2% (43, +3R) |
| 2017 | 21.0% / 28.8% (496, -265R) | 22.0% / 25.7% (245, -150R) | 48.8% / 43.5% (520, -291R) | 0.0% / 19.5% (539, -322R) | 30.0% / 40.0% (40, +6R) |
| 2018 | 19.8% / 27.9% (501, -196R) | 20.7% / 27.0% (237, -104R) | 44.3% / 43.1% (517, -245R) | 0.0% / 22.2% (531, -68R) | 31.8% / 31.8% (44, +2R) |
| 2019 | 18.4% / 26.1% (517, -198R) | 19.7% / 25.6% (223, -93R) | 48.8% / 49.0% (547, -178R) | 0.0% / 20.4% (560, -153R) | 23.4% / 23.4% (47, -9R) |
| 2020 | 19.8% / 29.6% (496, -98R) | 21.7% / 26.1% (249, -71R) | 50.6% / 51.1% (522, -98R) | 0.0% / 25.2% (528, -71R) | 30.8% / 46.2% (39, +20R) |
| 2021 | 22.0% / 29.2% (528, -87R) | 16.9% / 21.6% (231, -103R) | 49.1% / 49.6% (548, -118R) | 0.0% / 23.6% (555, -127R) | 22.4% / 24.5% (49, -11R) |
| 2022 | 19.3% / 28.6% (497, -120R) | 21.5% / 26.9% (242, -62R) | 50.7% / 51.8% (525, -101R) | 0.0% / 26.6% (530, +30R) | 35.1% / 37.8% (37, +9R) |
| 2023 | 19.0% / 25.3% (521, -185R) | 20.4% / 25.1% (235, -83R) | 43.7% / 44.4% (545, -205R) | 0.0% / 20.4% (553, -198R) | 20.9% / 20.9% (43, -16R) |
| 2024 | 17.2% / 27.0% (522, -156R) | 20.1% / 26.1% (234, -72R) | 47.0% / 48.4% (545, -135R) | 0.0% / 22.4% (562, -164R) | 16.0% / 24.0% (50, -23R) |
| 2025 | 20.2% / 31.2% (516, -90R) | 17.7% / 23.6% (237, -91R) | 47.1% / 49.2% (541, -126R) | 0.0% / 25.1% (554, -56R) | 25.9% / 29.6% (54, +0R) |
| 2026 | 23.3% / 28.9% (180, -24R) | 22.4% / 27.1% (85, -15R) | 48.9% / 49.5% (184, -40R) | 0.0% / 23.9% (184, -47R) | 41.2% / 41.2% (17, +7R) |

**BTCUSDT, all 11 variants:** highest target-hit rate 51.0% (CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1); best average -0.118R (CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 80; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1601 | 26.1% | 26.2% | 73.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.741 | 1.238 | 31.1% | -0.197 | 0.785 | -315 | 291.49 | 53.3 | 17.9% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 3251} |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1251 | 27.3% | 27.3% | 72.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.753 | 1.221 | 30.7% | -0.135 | 0.848 | -168 | 305.22 | 51.63 | 16.5% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 457, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2366} |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1569 | 26.1% | 26.3% | 73.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.711 | 1.279 | 32.1% | -0.229 | 0.757 | -359 | 281.87 | 56.97 | 19.0% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 3168} |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 1823 | 34.3% | 34.3% | 65.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.749 | 1.242 | 41.5% | -0.215 | 0.736 | -392 | 288.16 | 53.29 | 18.2% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1819} |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | 2034 | 51.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.772 | 1.24 | 61.6% | -0.233 | 0.623 | -474 | 278.07 | 53.04 | 18.5% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 680} |
| CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 2279 | 35.1% | 35.3% | 64.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.81 | 1.171 | 39.3% | -0.118 | 0.844 | -270 | 434.71 | 58.27 | 12.3% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 1, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 13339} |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 2162 | 0.0% | 19.7% | 40.7% | 59.3% | 0.0% | 2.831 | 0.987 | 25.8% | -0.236 | 0.702 | -511 | 264.09 | 53.04 | 19.2% | {'crosses': 3161, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 6801 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.498 | 1.501 | 37.5% | -0.506 | 0.551 | -3444 | 137.06 | 53.75 | 36.5% | {'crosses': 13447, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 11110} |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 7630 | 33.9% | 33.0% | 66.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.524 | 1.5 | 49.6% | -0.501 | 0.501 | -3824 | 134.05 | 53.35 | 37.1% | {'crosses': 13447, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 6745} |
| CRYPTO 15m · 6pm-12am IST only (uK7epk8-r9o) · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 3621 | 34.2% | 34.0% | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.575 | 1.417 | 47.4% | -0.400 | 0.573 | -1447 | 160.08 | 53.49 | 31.9% | {'crosses': 13447, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 29131, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 733} |
| CRYPTO 5m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 22811 | 33.4% | 30.2% | 66.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.272 | 1.927 | 60.2% | -0.960 | 0.286 | -21907 | 73.65 | 54.4 | 67.4% | {'crosses': 40806, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 20610} |

</details>

BTCUSDT, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 26.1% | -0.197 | 26.1% | 26.2% | 0.047 | 1.063 | -0.197 | 26.1% / 0.047 |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 27.3% | -0.135 | 27.3% | 27.4% | 0.093 | 1.129 | -0.135 | 27.3% / 0.093 |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | 51.0% | -0.233 | 51.0% | 51.0% | 0.02 | 1.04 | -0.231 | 51.1% / 0.022 |
| CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 35.1% | -0.118 | 35.1% | 35.4% | 0.058 | 1.089 | -0.118 | 35.1% / 0.058 |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 25.0% | -0.506 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.001 | 1.001 | -0.505 | 25.1% / 0.002 |

BTCUSDT, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | -0.179 | -0.197 | -0.232 |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | -0.118 | -0.135 | -0.168 |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | -0.215 | -0.233 | -0.27 |
| CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | -0.106 | -0.118 | -0.144 |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | -0.47 | -0.506 | -0.58 |

BTCUSDT, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 26.7% / 26.7% (180, -26R) | 25.4% / 25.4% (138, -23R) | 53.1% / 51.9% (241, -41R) | 39.5% / 40.3% (233, +16R) | 25.2% / 25.2% (880, -383R) |
| 2020 | 31.3% / 31.3% (211, +4R) | 32.9% / 32.9% (164, +16R) | 51.1% / 50.4% (264, -57R) | 33.6% / 33.6% (280, -42R) | 25.0% / 25.0% (843, -338R) |
| 2021 | 23.9% / 23.9% (218, -36R) | 22.4% / 22.4% (165, -36R) | 52.0% / 52.0% (281, -23R) | 31.5% / 31.8% (314, -46R) | 21.7% / 21.7% (1017, -402R) |
| 2022 | 24.3% / 24.3% (206, -48R) | 27.8% / 27.8% (169, -15R) | 52.3% / 52.3% (264, -46R) | 34.0% / 34.0% (338, -48R) | 25.2% / 25.2% (826, -358R) |
| 2023 | 23.4% / 23.0% (239, -106R) | 26.6% / 26.1% (188, -51R) | 49.8% / 46.9% (271, -107R) | 35.7% / 36.1% (255, -39R) | 24.7% / 24.1% (916, -754R) |
| 2024 | 26.1% / 26.1% (226, -45R) | 26.6% / 26.6% (169, -28R) | 51.3% / 50.9% (271, -60R) | 39.6% / 39.6% (293, +1R) | 25.6% / 25.6% (852, -396R) |
| 2025 | 25.7% / 26.3% (171, -38R) | 25.9% / 26.6% (143, -30R) | 46.3% / 45.1% (255, -93R) | 34.0% / 34.3% (303, -59R) | 27.8% / 27.4% (817, -421R) |
| 2026 | 28.7% / 29.3% (150, -19R) | 31.3% / 32.2% (115, -1R) | 52.4% / 51.3% (187, -48R) | 33.8% / 34.2% (263, -52R) | 26.0% / 25.5% (650, -392R) |

**ETHUSDT, all 11 variants:** highest target-hit rate 50.7% (CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1); best average -0.114R (CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 80; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1660 | 25.2% | 25.4% | 74.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.815 | 1.174 | 29.4% | -0.163 | 0.814 | -270 | 17.01 | 2.7 | 13.4% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2624} |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 1325 | 24.8% | 25.0% | 74.9% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.827 | 1.166 | 29.2% | -0.169 | 0.807 | -224 | 18.07 | 2.7 | 12.7% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 472, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1821} |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1652 | 25.3% | 25.7% | 74.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.767 | 1.195 | 30.2% | -0.178 | 0.8 | -294 | 15.97 | 2.75 | 14.4% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2743} |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 1842 | 34.0% | 34.0% | 65.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.824 | 1.181 | 39.3% | -0.160 | 0.795 | -295 | 16.16 | 2.64 | 13.8% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1526} |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | 2029 | 50.7% | 50.4% | 49.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.825 | 1.181 | 58.9% | -0.170 | 0.711 | -344 | 15.85 | 2.61 | 14.0% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 607} |
| CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 2287 | 33.6% | 33.8% | 65.9% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.862 | 1.125 | 37.7% | -0.114 | 0.847 | -261 | 24.66 | 2.68 | 9.2% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 12723} |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA | 2154 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 41.3% | 58.7% | 0.0% | 2.888 | 0.917 | 24.1% | -0.158 | 0.785 | -339 | 15.12 | 2.6 | 14.4% | {'crosses': 3177, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 0} |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 6804 | 26.2% | 26.2% | 73.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.606 | 1.393 | 34.8% | -0.345 | 0.664 | -2350 | 7.51 | 2.61 | 29.0% | {'crosses': 13120, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 9860} |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 7571 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 65.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.621 | 1.395 | 46.3% | -0.368 | 0.6 | -2786 | 7.45 | 2.6 | 29.3% | {'crosses': 13120, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 5705} |
| CRYPTO 15m · 6pm-12am IST only (uK7epk8-r9o) · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 3611 | 35.1% | 35.0% | 64.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.667 | 1.32 | 44.2% | -0.275 | 0.679 | -993 | 9.03 | 2.62 | 25.0% | {'crosses': 13120, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 28306, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 490} |
| CRYPTO 5m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 22910 | 34.2% | 32.4% | 65.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.393 | 1.7 | 55.0% | -0.698 | 0.393 | -15985 | 4.3 | 2.65 | 51.5% | {'crosses': 40467, 'skip_chop': 0, 'skip_htf': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 18070} |

</details>

ETHUSDT, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 25.2% | -0.163 | 25.2% | 25.4% | 0.012 | 1.016 | -0.16 | 25.2% / 0.015 |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 24.8% | -0.169 | 24.8% | 25.0% | -0.004 | 0.995 | -0.169 | 24.8% / -0.004 |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | 50.7% | -0.170 | 50.7% | 50.7% | 0.014 | 1.029 | -0.168 | 50.8% / 0.016 |
| CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | 33.6% | -0.114 | 33.6% | 33.9% | 0.014 | 1.022 | -0.114 | 33.6% / 0.014 |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | 26.2% | -0.345 | 26.2% | 26.3% | 0.05 | 1.068 | -0.341 | 26.4% / 0.054 |

ETHUSDT, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | -0.15 | -0.163 | -0.188 |
| CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | -0.157 | -0.169 | -0.193 |
| CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | -0.156 | -0.170 | -0.196 |
| CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | -0.105 | -0.114 | -0.133 |
| CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 | -0.317 | -0.345 | -0.403 |

ETHUSDT, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback after departure · green candle · SL swing5 · 1:3 | CRYPTO 1h · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback · green · SL swing5 · 1:3 | CRYPTO 1h · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:1 | CRYPTO 1h · every pullback · SL swing5 · 1:2 | CRYPTO 15m · first pullback · SL swing5 · 1:3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25.9% / 26.5% (189, -20R) | 22.9% / 23.5% (153, -34R) | 52.5% / 52.2% (255, -30R) | 34.7% / 35.6% (222, -13R) | 25.2% / 25.2% (909, -313R) |
| 2020 | 26.0% / 26.0% (235, -28R) | 24.5% / 24.5% (188, -34R) | 47.2% / 47.2% (252, -54R) | 35.3% / 35.3% (331, -16R) | 25.3% / 25.3% (912, -281R) |
| 2021 | 26.3% / 26.3% (209, -10R) | 24.4% / 24.4% (176, -21R) | 56.7% / 56.7% (261, +8R) | 32.7% / 32.7% (352, -35R) | 26.0% / 26.0% (917, -170R) |
| 2022 | 25.7% / 26.2% (206, -23R) | 29.7% / 31.0% (145, +12R) | 50.6% / 50.6% (251, -37R) | 31.6% / 31.9% (351, -59R) | 26.5% / 26.5% (824, -243R) |
| 2023 | 24.3% / 24.8% (202, -61R) | 24.0% / 24.0% (171, -48R) | 51.9% / 50.7% (268, -71R) | 32.4% / 32.0% (256, -66R) | 26.4% / 26.2% (958, -605R) |
| 2024 | 24.3% / 24.3% (235, -54R) | 23.8% / 23.8% (181, -43R) | 46.4% / 45.7% (276, -76R) | 34.0% / 34.3% (300, -32R) | 28.1% / 28.0% (893, -261R) |
| 2025 | 22.7% / 22.7% (225, -57R) | 23.0% / 23.0% (178, -42R) | 48.8% / 48.8% (283, -56R) | 31.5% / 32.3% (257, -40R) | 26.6% / 26.6% (856, -257R) |
| 2026 | 27.0% / 27.0% (159, -16R) | 27.1% / 27.1% (133, -14R) | 52.5% / 52.5% (183, -28R) | 37.6% / 38.1% (218, -0R) | 25.8% / 25.6% (535, -220R) |

## 9 EMA scalping

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | /week | Target hit (95% CI) | Win rate (net R>0) | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Total R | Max DD (R) | Longest losing run | ₹1L fixed ₹1k/trade | Years ≥60% target hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 25984 | 43.89 | 0.0% (0.0–0.0) | 33.3% | -0.292 | 0.61 | 45.0% | -7589 | 7592.0 | 20 | blown 2015-03-12 | 0 of 12 |
| NIFTY | Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 8031 | 13.57 | 15.3% (14.5–16.1) | 36.4% | -0.323 | 0.521 | 52.3% | -2593 | 2593.4 | 16 | blown 2015-06-01 | 0 of 12 |
| NIFTY | GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 28813 | 48.67 | 39.1% (38.6–39.7) | 44.1% | -0.355 | 0.419 | 65.3% | -10237 | 10239.9 | 19 | blown 2015-02-12 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 28371 | 47.92 | 0.0% (0.0–0.0) | 32.3% | -0.269 | 0.615 | 43.6% | -7627 | 7651.1 | 21 | blown 2015-03-24 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 8044 | 13.59 | 14.2% (13.4–14.9) | 36.0% | -0.262 | 0.576 | 49.3% | -2108 | 2113.6 | 17 | blown 2015-07-09 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 31743 | 53.62 | 37.5% (37.0–38.1) | 44.3% | -0.280 | 0.507 | 61.0% | -8882 | 8890.2 | 17 | blown 2015-02-28 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 27150 | 45.86 | 0.0% (0.0–0.0) | 30.7% | -0.392 | 0.513 | 46.3% | -10636 | 10638.7 | 30 | blown 2015-04-07 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 8024 | 13.55 | 15.1% (14.3–15.9) | 34.7% | -0.377 | 0.467 | 53.2% | -3024 | 3025.7 | 19 | blown 2015-05-25 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 30174 | 50.97 | 37.8% (37.2–38.3) | 41.5% | -0.425 | 0.353 | 66.8% | -12827 | 12829.2 | 26 | blown 2015-02-19 | 0 of 12 |

**NIFTY, all 4 variants:** highest target-hit rate 39.1% (GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles); best average -0.180R (5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL swing5 · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 36; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 25984 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 12.2% | 47.8% | 1.375 | 1.124 | 45.0% | -0.292 | 0.61 | -7589 | 9.2 | 2.22 | 29.4% | {'skip_time': 2430, 'skip_bad_day': 18, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 5767, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 8031 | 15.3% | 36.4% | 35.8% | 12.6% | 36.4% | 0.964 | 1.058 | 52.3% | -0.323 | 0.521 | -2593 | 10.65 | 2.22 | 26.1% | {'skip_time': 2430, 'skip_bad_day': 18, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1294, 'skip_daily_limit': 22426} |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 28813 | 39.1% | 44.1% | 33.1% | 9.2% | 18.6% | 0.581 | 1.095 | 65.3% | -0.355 | 0.419 | -10237 | 9.45 | 2.22 | 28.9% | {'skip_time': 2430, 'skip_bad_day': 18, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 2938, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL swing5 · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 25327 | 5.5% | 35.3% | 10.6% | 35.5% | 48.4% | 0.657 | 0.637 | 49.2% | -0.180 | 0.563 | -4558 | 18.35 | 2.22 | 17.1% | {'skip_time': 2430, 'skip_bad_day': 18, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 6424, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |

</details>

NIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 0.0% | -0.292 | 0.0% | 39.1% | 0.085 | 1.171 | -0.292 | 0.0% / 0.085 |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 15.3% | -0.323 | 15.3% | 41.7% | 0.019 | 1.04 | -0.32 | 15.4% / 0.021 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 39.1% | -0.355 | 39.1% | 49.4% | 0.015 | 1.035 | -0.35 | 39.4% / 0.02 |

NIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | -0.144 | -0.292 | -0.587 |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | -0.191 | -0.323 | -0.587 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | -0.211 | -0.355 | -0.644 |

NIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.0% / 30.5% (2215, -771R) | 16.6% / 31.5% (676, -312R) | 39.5% / 41.4% (2481, -1188R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% / 30.4% (2207, -988R) | 17.7% / 33.6% (702, -346R) | 40.3% / 40.7% (2464, -1278R) |
| 2017 | 0.0% / 29.5% (2249, -1188R) | 16.5% / 33.5% (716, -394R) | 40.0% / 38.0% (2500, -1517R) |
| 2018 | 0.0% / 32.8% (2195, -848R) | 14.4% / 33.2% (699, -304R) | 40.6% / 43.2% (2418, -1020R) |
| 2019 | 0.0% / 33.1% (2222, -693R) | 17.3% / 37.8% (706, -234R) | 38.2% / 43.6% (2468, -1007R) |
| 2020 | 0.0% / 34.5% (2225, -458R) | 14.1% / 37.6% (723, -187R) | 39.5% / 46.1% (2440, -640R) |
| 2021 | 0.0% / 35.9% (2287, -383R) | 17.0% / 39.2% (712, -126R) | 41.4% / 48.0% (2556, -552R) |
| 2022 | 0.0% / 36.7% (2219, -321R) | 14.3% / 38.3% (720, -159R) | 39.0% / 47.5% (2431, -527R) |
| 2023 | 0.0% / 33.9% (2408, -698R) | 13.2% / 38.0% (705, -192R) | 38.1% / 45.1% (2665, -850R) |
| 2024 | 0.0% / 32.8% (2577, -650R) | 14.0% / 37.9% (708, -136R) | 37.1% / 44.6% (2861, -788R) |
| 2025 | 0.0% / 35.3% (2380, -454R) | 12.6% / 39.0% (712, -153R) | 37.1% / 46.2% (2634, -680R) |
| 2026 | 0.0% / 34.8% (800, -136R) | 16.7% / 36.1% (252, -50R) | 39.2% / 45.8% (895, -189R) |

**BANKNIFTY, all 4 variants:** highest target-hit rate 37.5% (GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles); best average -0.160R (5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL swing5 · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 36; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 28371 | 0.0% | 32.3% | 41.6% | 13.1% | 45.3% | 1.33 | 1.03 | 43.6% | -0.269 | 0.615 | -7627 | 28.9 | 4.67 | 21.2% | {'skip_time': 2928, 'skip_bad_day': 26, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 6901, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 8044 | 14.2% | 36.0% | 36.7% | 13.1% | 36.1% | 0.991 | 0.966 | 49.3% | -0.262 | 0.576 | -2108 | 34.4 | 4.66 | 18.5% | {'skip_time': 2928, 'skip_bad_day': 26, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1467, 'skip_daily_limit': 25761} |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 31743 | 37.5% | 44.3% | 34.2% | 9.9% | 18.4% | 0.65 | 1.018 | 61.0% | -0.280 | 0.507 | -8882 | 29.4 | 4.67 | 20.9% | {'skip_time': 2928, 'skip_bad_day': 26, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 3529, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL swing5 · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 27521 | 5.1% | 34.8% | 11.0% | 36.8% | 47.1% | 0.656 | 0.596 | 47.6% | -0.160 | 0.588 | -4409 | 57.4 | 4.67 | 13.0% | {'skip_time': 2928, 'skip_bad_day': 26, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 7751, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |

</details>

BANKNIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 0.0% | -0.269 | 0.0% | 36.5% | -0.007 | 0.987 | -0.269 | 0.0% / -0.007 |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 14.2% | -0.262 | 14.2% | 40.0% | -0.031 | 0.935 | -0.261 | 14.2% / -0.029 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 37.5% | -0.280 | 37.5% | 47.3% | -0.021 | 0.951 | -0.274 | 37.8% / -0.015 |

BANKNIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | -0.176 | -0.269 | -0.454 |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | -0.182 | -0.262 | -0.421 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | -0.189 | -0.280 | -0.462 |

BANKNIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.0% / 32.3% (2248, -642R) | 16.7% / 36.5% (687, -204R) | 38.5% / 43.6% (2495, -849R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% / 31.0% (2453, -895R) | 16.8% / 35.5% (709, -253R) | 39.2% / 43.8% (2781, -1017R) |
| 2017 | 0.0% / 28.1% (2672, -1210R) | 14.8% / 32.5% (708, -275R) | 39.1% / 42.2% (3057, -1258R) |
| 2018 | 0.0% / 31.7% (2619, -942R) | 12.5% / 31.9% (698, -269R) | 37.0% / 43.4% (2937, -1022R) |
| 2019 | 0.0% / 31.6% (2450, -655R) | 15.7% / 35.6% (705, -179R) | 36.7% / 43.1% (2740, -829R) |
| 2020 | 0.0% / 34.7% (2276, -434R) | 11.4% / 37.9% (729, -170R) | 38.3% / 46.6% (2506, -495R) |
| 2021 | 0.0% / 35.7% (2360, -350R) | 13.1% / 39.1% (717, -94R) | 39.1% / 47.6% (2631, -405R) |
| 2022 | 0.0% / 35.2% (2403, -302R) | 15.6% / 38.2% (719, -115R) | 37.2% / 46.0% (2648, -542R) |
| 2023 | 0.0% / 30.7% (2679, -748R) | 13.3% / 34.0% (705, -186R) | 34.7% / 42.7% (2985, -820R) |
| 2024 | 0.0% / 30.7% (2722, -630R) | 14.1% / 36.8% (709, -123R) | 38.0% / 44.2% (3084, -704R) |
| 2025 | 0.0% / 32.8% (2594, -691R) | 13.0% / 37.1% (706, -168R) | 35.1% / 43.2% (2886, -775R) |
| 2026 | 0.0% / 36.1% (895, -128R) | 10.7% / 36.1% (252, -72R) | 38.2% / 48.0% (993, -167R) |

**FINNIFTY, all 4 variants:** highest target-hit rate 37.8% (GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles); best average -0.230R (5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL swing5 · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 36; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 27150 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 41.5% | 12.1% | 46.4% | 1.343 | 1.16 | 46.3% | -0.392 | 0.513 | -10636 | 12.05 | 3.26 | 32.0% | {'skip_time': 2819, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 6305, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 8024 | 15.1% | 34.7% | 36.4% | 11.8% | 36.7% | 0.95 | 1.082 | 53.2% | -0.377 | 0.467 | -3024 | 14.3 | 3.25 | 27.7% | {'skip_time': 2819, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 1339, 'skip_daily_limit': 24092} |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 30174 | 37.8% | 41.5% | 34.6% | 9.0% | 18.7% | 0.559 | 1.124 | 66.8% | -0.425 | 0.353 | -12827 | 12.3 | 3.26 | 31.4% | {'skip_time': 2819, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 3281, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL swing5 · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 26326 | 5.0% | 33.0% | 11.5% | 35.6% | 48.0% | 0.637 | 0.657 | 50.8% | -0.230 | 0.478 | -6046 | 23.85 | 3.26 | 18.5% | {'skip_time': 2819, 'skip_bad_day': 15, 'skip_nonpositive_risk': 0, 'skip_busy': 7129, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |

</details>

FINNIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | 0.0% | -0.392 | 0.0% | 37.3% | 0.026 | 1.051 | -0.392 | 0.0% / 0.026 |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | 15.1% | -0.377 | 15.1% | 40.6% | -0.003 | 0.995 | -0.373 | 15.2% / 0.001 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | 37.8% | -0.425 | 37.8% | 47.7% | -0.015 | 0.964 | -0.419 | 38.1% / -0.009 |

FINNIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | -0.22 | -0.392 | -0.735 |
| Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | -0.225 | -0.377 | -0.681 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles | -0.257 | -0.425 | -0.762 |

FINNIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | EXACT (AO5tS1hqMao): 5m · 9-EMA rejection candle · SL candle · exit on a close back beyond the 9 EMA or after 3 candles · no fixed target | Gc-xw57Zrg8: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:2 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles · max 3 trades/day · stop after 2 SLs in a row | GENEROUS: 5m · 9-EMA rejection · SL candle · 1:1 or 9-EMA close or 3 candles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.0% / 29.1% (2110, -997R) | 16.7% / 32.6% (694, -371R) | 38.7% / 38.2% (2352, -1332R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% / 28.1% (2298, -1434R) | 17.7% / 31.9% (711, -427R) | 38.9% / 36.4% (2549, -1696R) |
| 2017 | 0.0% / 25.5% (2530, -1796R) | 17.0% / 30.4% (704, -406R) | 39.5% / 35.3% (2849, -1945R) |
| 2018 | 0.0% / 29.6% (2422, -1184R) | 14.8% / 33.1% (703, -314R) | 39.0% / 40.9% (2694, -1353R) |
| 2019 | 0.0% / 30.7% (2387, -942R) | 16.2% / 35.3% (705, -268R) | 37.6% / 41.9% (2653, -1196R) |
| 2020 | 0.0% / 34.4% (2294, -558R) | 12.5% / 36.8% (729, -207R) | 39.3% / 46.0% (2527, -703R) |
| 2021 | 0.0% / 34.7% (2282, -400R) | 16.0% / 40.4% (701, -117R) | 38.2% / 44.9% (2539, -684R) |
| 2022 | 0.0% / 33.8% (2255, -487R) | 13.9% / 35.1% (699, -223R) | 38.0% / 45.5% (2508, -709R) |
| 2023 | 0.0% / 28.9% (2585, -1034R) | 13.4% / 33.7% (695, -265R) | 33.9% / 39.7% (2855, -1188R) |
| 2024 | 0.0% / 30.1% (2651, -856R) | 15.6% / 36.1% (710, -165R) | 36.7% / 42.8% (2960, -963R) |
| 2025 | 0.0% / 32.4% (2482, -750R) | 13.9% / 36.2% (712, -179R) | 36.6% / 44.3% (2749, -819R) |
| 2026 | 0.0% / 33.6% (854, -199R) | 10.3% / 34.9% (261, -82R) | 37.4% / 45.0% (939, -240R) |

## Big Bar scalping (spot chart)

| Symbol | Variant | Trades | /week | Target hit (95% CI) | Win rate (net R>0) | Avg R | PF | Break-even WR | Total R | Max DD (R) | Longest losing run | ₹1L fixed ₹1k/trade | Years ≥60% target hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 201 | 0.34 | 9.0% (5.7–13.7) | 33.3% | -0.319 | 0.445 | 52.9% | -64 | 64.3 | 11 | ₹35,860 | 0 of 11 |
| NIFTY | BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 201 | 0.34 | 13.4% (9.4–18.8) | 34.3% | -0.318 | 0.444 | 54.1% | -64 | 64.0 | 11 | ₹36,165 | 0 of 11 |
| NIFTY | BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 202 | 0.34 | 27.7% (22.0–34.3) | 38.6% | -0.345 | 0.366 | 63.2% | -70 | 70.0 | 7 | ₹30,210 | 0 of 11 |
| NIFTY | BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 2124 | 3.59 | 4.5% (3.7–5.5) | 36.2% | -0.210 | 0.527 | 51.8% | -446 | 447.0 | 18 | blown 2016-10-14 | 0 of 12 |
| BANKNIFTY | BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 6 | 0.01 | 0.0% (0.0–39.0) | 33.3% | -0.528 | 0.342 | 59.4% | -3 | 3.2 | 2 | ₹96,831 | 0 of 5 |
| BANKNIFTY | BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 6 | 0.01 | 0.0% (0.0–39.0) | 33.3% | -0.528 | 0.342 | 59.4% | -3 | 3.2 | 2 | ₹96,831 | 0 of 5 |
| BANKNIFTY | BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 6 | 0.01 | 33.3% (9.7–70.0) | 50.0% | -0.458 | 0.36 | 73.5% | -3 | 2.9 | 1 | ₹97,255 | 1 of 5 |
| BANKNIFTY | BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 662 | 1.12 | 3.6% (2.4–5.3) | 34.3% | -0.244 | 0.462 | 53.0% | -161 | 164.8 | 13 | blown 2020-01-03 | 0 of 12 |
| FINNIFTY | BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 12 | 0.02 | 25.0% (8.9–53.2) | 33.3% | -0.217 | 0.642 | 43.8% | -3 | 3.0 | 4 | ₹97,394 | 1 of 4 |
| FINNIFTY | BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 12 | 0.02 | 25.0% (8.9–53.2) | 33.3% | -0.274 | 0.548 | 47.7% | -3 | 3.3 | 4 | ₹96,712 | 1 of 4 |
| FINNIFTY | BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 12 | 0.02 | 33.3% (13.8–60.9) | 41.7% | -0.402 | 0.328 | 68.5% | -5 | 4.8 | 2 | ₹95,181 | 1 of 4 |
| FINNIFTY | BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 903 | 1.53 | 4.1% (3.0–5.6) | 29.8% | -0.321 | 0.376 | 53.0% | -290 | 290.0 | 15 | blown 2017-10-17 | 0 of 12 |

**NIFTY, all 9 variants:** highest target-hit rate 27.7% (BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles); best average -0.150R (BB5: no size cap · 1:2); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 0 of 86; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 201 | 9.0% | 33.3% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 63.2% | 0.768 | 0.863 | 52.9% | -0.319 | 0.445 | -64 | 7.35 | 2.2 | 35.1% | {'big_bars': 205, 'skip_time': 3, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 1, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 201 | 13.4% | 34.3% | 27.9% | 0.0% | 58.7% | 0.739 | 0.87 | 54.1% | -0.318 | 0.444 | -64 | 7.35 | 2.2 | 35.1% | {'big_bars': 205, 'skip_time': 3, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 1, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 202 | 27.7% | 38.6% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 45.0% | 0.516 | 0.887 | 63.2% | -0.345 | 0.366 | -70 | 7.28 | 2.2 | 35.1% | {'big_bars': 205, 'skip_time': 3, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 2124 | 4.5% | 36.2% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 78.2% | 0.645 | 0.694 | 51.8% | -0.210 | 0.527 | -446 | 13.18 | 2.21 | 21.7% | {'big_bars': 2351, 'skip_time': 148, 'skip_bad_day': 2, 'skip_busy': 29, 'skip_daily_limit': 48} |
| BB5: no size cap · 1:2 | 4633 | 3.5% | 38.4% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 82.7% | 0.6 | 0.618 | 50.7% | -0.150 | 0.606 | -694 | 20.2 | 2.21 | 15.9% | {'big_bars': 6339, 'skip_time': 1291, 'skip_bad_day': 6, 'skip_busy': 85, 'skip_daily_limit': 324} |
| BB6: big bar >= 1.5x prior 3 · 1:2 | 1242 | 8.5% | 32.4% | 34.1% | 0.0% | 57.3% | 0.778 | 0.943 | 54.8% | -0.386 | 0.395 | -479 | 7.3 | 2.21 | 35.0% | {'big_bars': 1363, 'skip_time': 33, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_busy': 37, 'skip_daily_limit': 50} |
| BB7: big bar >= 2.5x prior 3 · 1:2 | 21 | 9.5% | 33.3% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 47.6% | 0.932 | 1.03 | 52.5% | -0.376 | 0.452 | -8 | 7.4 | 2.18 | 34.2% | {'big_bars': 22, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 1, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB8: no 9-EMA touch required · 1:2 | 229 | 8.3% | 32.3% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 62.9% | 0.761 | 0.874 | 53.5% | -0.346 | 0.416 | -79 | 7.15 | 2.2 | 35.2% | {'big_bars': 234, 'skip_time': 3, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 1, 'skip_daily_limit': 1} |
| BB9: 3-minute chart (JDa9P73OlIA) · 1:2 | 1420 | 6.0% | 29.6% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 71.6% | 0.708 | 0.813 | 53.5% | -0.364 | 0.365 | -516 | 7.15 | 2.2 | 35.6% | {'big_bars': 1541, 'skip_time': 59, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_busy': 4, 'skip_daily_limit': 57} |

</details>

NIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 9.0% | -0.319 | 9.0% | 45.3% | 0.024 | 1.065 | -0.319 | 9.0% / 0.024 |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 13.4% | -0.318 | 13.4% | 45.8% | 0.025 | 1.069 | -0.318 | 13.4% / 0.025 |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 27.7% | -0.345 | 27.7% | 49.0% | -0.003 | 0.993 | -0.345 | 27.7% / -0.003 |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 4.5% | -0.210 | 4.5% | 46.6% | 0.021 | 1.067 | -0.21 | 4.5% / 0.021 |

NIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | -0.186 | -0.319 | -0.586 |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | -0.184 | -0.318 | -0.584 |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | -0.212 | -0.345 | -0.612 |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | -0.127 | -0.210 | -0.374 |

NIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 10.0% / 20.0% (10, -6R) | 20.0% / 30.0% (10, -5R) | 20.0% / 30.0% (10, -6R) | 6.5% / 37.9% (153, -36R) |
| 2016 | 9.1% / 31.8% (22, -11R) | 13.6% / 31.8% (22, -12R) | 31.8% / 36.4% (22, -13R) | 3.8% / 28.2% (213, -90R) |
| 2017 | 15.1% / 35.8% (53, -8R) | 17.0% / 37.7% (53, -8R) | 40.7% / 42.6% (54, -12R) | 5.1% / 32.5% (311, -79R) |
| 2018 | 11.1% / 27.8% (18, -8R) | 11.1% / 27.8% (18, -8R) | 38.9% / 38.9% (18, -7R) | 4.9% / 38.0% (205, -41R) |
| 2019 | 6.7% / 20.0% (15, -7R) | 6.7% / 20.0% (15, -8R) | 26.7% / 26.7% (15, -8R) | 6.0% / 40.7% (216, -28R) |
| 2020 | 0.0% / 33.3% (3, -0R) | 33.3% / 33.3% (3, -0R) | 33.3% / 33.3% (3, -1R) | 8.2% / 38.4% (73, -10R) |
| 2021 | 11.1% / 22.2% (9, -4R) | 11.1% / 22.2% (9, -4R) | 11.1% / 22.2% (9, -5R) | 4.7% / 43.4% (129, -6R) |
| 2022 | 0.0% / 30.0% (10, -2R) | 0.0% / 30.0% (10, -2R) | 10.0% / 40.0% (10, -1R) | 4.3% / 36.2% (141, -18R) |
| 2023 | 3.8% / 38.5% (26, -6R) | 15.4% / 38.5% (26, -6R) | 19.2% / 42.3% (26, -6R) | 2.6% / 41.1% (265, -34R) |
| 2024 | 0.0% / 25.0% (8, -5R) | 0.0% / 25.0% (8, -5R) | 0.0% / 25.0% (8, -5R) | 2.8% / 29.2% (144, -42R) |
| 2025 | 7.4% / 48.1% (27, -6R) | 14.8% / 48.1% (27, -7R) | 22.2% / 48.1% (27, -8R) | 3.4% / 36.6% (232, -45R) |
| 2026 | – | – | – | 4.8% / 28.6% (42, -16R) |

**BANKNIFTY, all 9 variants:** highest target-hit rate 33.3% (BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles); best average -0.104R (BB5: no size cap · 1:2); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 4 of 64; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 6 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.822 | 1.203 | 59.4% | -0.528 | 0.342 | -3 | 11.45 | 4.51 | 43.1% | {'big_bars': 6, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 6 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.822 | 1.203 | 59.4% | -0.528 | 0.342 | -3 | 11.45 | 4.51 | 43.1% | {'big_bars': 6, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 6 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.514 | 1.429 | 73.5% | -0.458 | 0.36 | -3 | 11.45 | 4.51 | 43.1% | {'big_bars': 6, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 662 | 3.6% | 34.3% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 74.5% | 0.611 | 0.69 | 53.0% | -0.244 | 0.462 | -161 | 37.38 | 4.75 | 17.3% | {'big_bars': 692, 'skip_time': 25, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_busy': 2, 'skip_daily_limit': 2} |
| BB5: no size cap · 1:2 | 4600 | 3.8% | 39.3% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 83.5% | 0.615 | 0.57 | 48.1% | -0.104 | 0.7 | -476 | 68.93 | 4.65 | 11.6% | {'big_bars': 6158, 'skip_time': 1158, 'skip_bad_day': 4, 'skip_busy': 68, 'skip_daily_limit': 328} |
| BB6: big bar >= 1.5x prior 3 · 1:2 | 97 | 12.4% | 32.0% | 39.2% | 0.0% | 48.5% | 1.06 | 0.959 | 47.5% | -0.314 | 0.519 | -30 | 26.9 | 5.02 | 23.7% | {'big_bars': 103, 'skip_time': 4, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_busy': 1, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB7: big bar >= 2.5x prior 3 · 1:2 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 1.644 | 100.0% | -1.644 | 0.0 | -2 | 7.55 | 4.5 | 64.4% | {'big_bars': 1, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB8: no 9-EMA touch required · 1:2 | 7 | 14.3% | 42.9% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 42.9% | 1.097 | 1.203 | 52.3% | -0.218 | 0.684 | -2 | 11.45 | 4.52 | 42.9% | {'big_bars': 7, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB9: 3-minute chart (JDa9P73OlIA) · 1:2 | 118 | 11.9% | 28.8% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 60.2% | 1.029 | 0.827 | 44.5% | -0.292 | 0.504 | -34 | 25.67 | 5.01 | 24.3% | {'big_bars': 125, 'skip_time': 7, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |

</details>

BANKNIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 0.0% | -0.528 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -0.133 | 0.759 | -0.028 | 16.7% / 0.367 |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 0.0% | -0.528 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -0.133 | 0.759 | 0.263 | 16.7% / 0.658 |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 33.3% | -0.458 | 33.3% | 50.0% | -0.063 | 0.875 | -0.124 | 50.0% / 0.271 |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 3.6% | -0.244 | 3.6% | 43.5% | -0.061 | 0.82 | -0.239 | 3.8% / -0.057 |

BANKNIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | -0.375 | -0.528 | -0.835 |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | -0.375 | -0.528 | -0.835 |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | -0.304 | -0.458 | -0.764 |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | -0.186 | -0.244 | -0.359 |

BANKNIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -1R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -1R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -1R) | 17.6% / 35.3% (34, -5R) |
| 2016 | 0.0% / 100.0% (1, +0R) | 0.0% / 100.0% (1, +0R) | 0.0% / 100.0% (1, +0R) | 2.5% / 35.0% (40, -17R) |
| 2017 | 0.0% / 50.0% (2, -0R) | 0.0% / 50.0% (2, -0R) | 50.0% / 50.0% (2, -1R) | 1.5% / 29.5% (132, -45R) |
| 2018 | – | – | – | 1.8% / 36.8% (57, -14R) |
| 2019 | – | – | – | 3.7% / 25.9% (54, -19R) |
| 2020 | – | – | – | 0.0% / 41.7% (12, -3R) |
| 2021 | – | – | – | 0.0% / 29.4% (17, -5R) |
| 2022 | – | – | – | 9.7% / 45.2% (31, +2R) |
| 2023 | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -0R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -0R) | 100.0% / 100.0% (1, +1R) | 3.7% / 36.4% (107, -21R) |
| 2024 | – | – | – | 4.8% / 23.8% (42, -12R) |
| 2025 | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -1R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -1R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (1, -1R) | 1.7% / 38.8% (116, -23R) |
| 2026 | – | – | – | 5.0% / 45.0% (20, +0R) |

**FINNIFTY, all 9 variants:** highest target-hit rate 33.3% (BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles); best average -0.164R (BB5: no size cap · 1:2); variant-years with target hit ≥60% (fixed-target variants): 3 of 61; variants with a positive average R after costs: 0.

<details><summary>Full grid</summary>

| Variant | Trades | Target | Win | Stop | EMA exit | Time | Avg win R | Avg loss R | BE WR | Avg R | PF | Total R | Median SL (pts) | Median cost (pts) | Cost / risk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 12 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 1.166 | 0.909 | 43.8% | -0.217 | 0.642 | -3 | 9.38 | 3.37 | 41.3% | {'big_bars': 12, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 12 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 0.995 | 0.909 | 47.7% | -0.274 | 0.548 | -3 | 9.38 | 3.37 | 41.3% | {'big_bars': 12, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 12 | 33.3% | 41.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.471 | 1.025 | 68.5% | -0.402 | 0.328 | -5 | 9.38 | 3.37 | 41.3% | {'big_bars': 12, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 903 | 4.1% | 29.8% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 74.3% | 0.65 | 0.733 | 53.0% | -0.321 | 0.376 | -290 | 15.35 | 3.25 | 26.0% | {'big_bars': 959, 'skip_time': 49, 'skip_bad_day': 2, 'skip_busy': 3, 'skip_daily_limit': 2} |
| BB5: no size cap · 1:2 | 4537 | 3.6% | 37.4% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 82.8% | 0.588 | 0.614 | 51.1% | -0.164 | 0.573 | -745 | 27.5 | 3.24 | 16.6% | {'big_bars': 6223, 'skip_time': 1298, 'skip_bad_day': 2, 'skip_busy': 90, 'skip_daily_limit': 296} |
| BB6: big bar >= 1.5x prior 3 · 1:2 | 182 | 9.9% | 24.7% | 41.2% | 0.0% | 48.9% | 0.898 | 1.048 | 53.9% | -0.567 | 0.281 | -103 | 9.6 | 3.28 | 39.9% | {'big_bars': 193, 'skip_time': 11, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB7: big bar >= 2.5x prior 3 · 1:2 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | {'big_bars': 0, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB8: no 9-EMA touch required · 1:2 | 15 | 20.0% | 26.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 46.7% | 1.166 | 0.941 | 44.7% | -0.379 | 0.45 | -6 | 9.6 | 3.37 | 38.7% | {'big_bars': 15, 'skip_time': 0, 'skip_bad_day': 0, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |
| BB9: 3-minute chart (JDa9P73OlIA) · 1:2 | 244 | 6.6% | 31.1% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 67.2% | 0.757 | 0.942 | 55.5% | -0.413 | 0.363 | -101 | 9.52 | 3.26 | 39.3% | {'big_bars': 258, 'skip_time': 13, 'skip_bad_day': 1, 'skip_busy': 0, 'skip_daily_limit': 0} |

</details>

FINNIFTY, headline variants with **zero costs**, the **most generous intrabar order**, and both:

| Variant | Target hit (costs) | Avg R (costs) | Target hit (zero cost) | Win (zero cost) | Avg R (zero cost) | PF (zero cost) | Avg R (generous intrabar) | Zero cost + generous: target / avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | 25.0% | -0.217 | 25.0% | 58.3% | 0.231 | 1.67 | -0.217 | 25.0% / 0.231 |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | 25.0% | -0.274 | 25.0% | 58.3% | 0.174 | 1.505 | -0.274 | 25.0% / 0.174 |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | 33.3% | -0.402 | 33.3% | 58.3% | 0.047 | 1.136 | -0.402 | 33.3% / 0.047 |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | 4.1% | -0.321 | 4.1% | 43.6% | -0.04 | 0.882 | -0.321 | 4.1% / -0.04 |

FINNIFTY, slippage sensitivity (avg R after costs): ×0.5 / ×1 / ×2 the stated slippage:

| Variant | ×0.5 | ×1 | ×2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | -0.031 | -0.217 | -0.588 |
| BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | -0.088 | -0.274 | -0.645 |
| BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | -0.216 | -0.402 | -0.773 |
| BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) | -0.212 | -0.321 | -0.539 |

FINNIFTY, by year, headline variants (cell = target hit / win rate, trades, total R):

| Year | BB1: 5m · big bar >= 2x prior 3, body >= 60%, closes beyond 9 EMA after touching it · <= 0.08% of price (his 15 pts) · SL bar low · 1:2 · 3 candles · max 3/day | BB2: same · target +10% of ATM premium (~0.10% of spot) · 3 candles | BB3: same · 1:1 (generous) · 3 candles | BB4: same as BB1 but cap 0.155% (15 premium points reading) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | – | – | – | 8.8% / 29.8% (57, -25R) |
| 2016 | 50.0% / 50.0% (2, -0R) | 50.0% / 50.0% (2, -1R) | 50.0% / 50.0% (2, -1R) | 4.9% / 24.4% (82, -41R) |
| 2017 | 0.0% / 0.0% (2, -2R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (2, -2R) | 0.0% / 0.0% (2, -2R) | 5.6% / 31.9% (144, -50R) |
| 2018 | 100.0% / 100.0% (1, +2R) | 100.0% / 100.0% (1, +1R) | 100.0% / 100.0% (1, +0R) | 3.7% / 27.5% (109, -41R) |
| 2019 | – | – | – | 7.1% / 32.9% (85, -17R) |
| 2020 | – | – | – | 0.0% / 11.8% (17, -7R) |
| 2021 | – | – | – | 2.1% / 22.9% (48, -19R) |
| 2022 | – | – | – | 3.6% / 41.8% (55, -8R) |
| 2023 | 14.3% / 28.6% (7, -1R) | 14.3% / 28.6% (7, -1R) | 28.6% / 42.9% (7, -2R) | 3.3% / 37.2% (121, -16R) |
| 2024 | – | – | – | 1.8% / 19.6% (56, -22R) |
| 2025 | – | – | – | 1.9% / 30.5% (105, -29R) |
| 2026 | – | – | – | 0.0% / 16.7% (24, -13R) |

## 9-20: three readings side by side (for critics)

- **Exact** = EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross
- **All conditions** = ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3
- **Most generous** = GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1; also run with zero costs AND the most favourable intrabar order.
- Exact = the one video that states the 65-70% number, read literally. All conditions = every filter he names in any 9-20 video. Generous = same entries with the closest possible target (maximises the win rate). Crypto readings: exact = 1h first pullback, swing stop, 1:3; generous = 1h, 1:1.

**NIFTY**

| Reading | Trades | Target hit after costs (95% CI) | Win (net R>0) | Avg R after costs | PF | Target hit zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 5782 | 22.5% (21.4–23.6) | 29.9% | -0.214 | 0.76 | 22.5% | 0.081 | 22.5% / 0.082R |
| All conditions | 2642 | 24.3% (22.7–26.0) | 29.5% | -0.229 | 0.753 | 24.3% | 0.102 | 24.4% / 0.104R |
| Most generous | 5963 | 50.9% (49.7–52.2) | 50.6% | -0.258 | 0.584 | 50.9% | 0.039 | 51.0% / 0.04R |

**BANKNIFTY**

| Reading | Trades | Target hit after costs (95% CI) | Win (net R>0) | Avg R after costs | PF | Target hit zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 5819 | 20.1% (19.1–21.1) | 28.6% | -0.194 | 0.768 | 20.1% | 0.006 | 20.1% / 0.006R |
| All conditions | 2648 | 21.7% (20.2–23.3) | 27.0% | -0.225 | 0.743 | 21.7% | -0.002 | 21.7% / -0.002R |
| Most generous | 6075 | 47.9% (46.6–49.1) | 48.9% | -0.214 | 0.642 | 47.9% | -0.013 | 48.0% / -0.011R |

**FINNIFTY**

| Reading | Trades | Target hit after costs (95% CI) | Win (net R>0) | Avg R after costs | PF | Target hit zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 5821 | 19.8% (18.8–20.8) | 28.0% | -0.331 | 0.645 | 19.8% | -0.013 | 19.8% / -0.012R |
| All conditions | 2689 | 20.6% (19.1–22.1) | 25.5% | -0.409 | 0.59 | 20.6% | -0.054 | 20.6% / -0.054R |
| Most generous | 6078 | 48.0% (46.8–49.3) | 47.6% | -0.337 | 0.497 | 48.0% | -0.015 | 48.1% / -0.013R |

**BTCUSDT**

| Reading | Trades | Target hit after costs (95% CI) | Win (net R>0) | Avg R after costs | PF | Target hit zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 1601 | 26.1% (24.0–28.3) | 26.2% | -0.197 | 0.785 | 26.1% | 0.047 | 26.1% / 0.047R |
| All conditions | 1251 | 27.3% (24.9–29.8) | 27.3% | -0.135 | 0.848 | 27.3% | 0.093 | 27.3% / 0.093R |
| Most generous | 2034 | 51.0% (48.8–53.2) | 50.0% | -0.233 | 0.623 | 51.0% | 0.02 | 51.1% / 0.022R |

**ETHUSDT**

| Reading | Trades | Target hit after costs (95% CI) | Win (net R>0) | Avg R after costs | PF | Target hit zero cost | Avg R zero cost | Zero cost + generous intrabar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact | 1660 | 25.2% (23.2–27.3) | 25.4% | -0.163 | 0.814 | 25.2% | 0.012 | 25.2% / 0.015R |
| All conditions | 1325 | 24.8% (22.5–27.1) | 25.0% | -0.169 | 0.807 | 24.8% | -0.004 | 24.8% / -0.004R |
| Most generous | 2029 | 50.7% (48.5–52.9) | 50.4% | -0.170 | 0.711 | 50.7% | 0.014 | 50.8% / 0.016R |

## What is his definition vs our interpretation

**Defined explicitly in his words (safe to show as 'his rule'):** EMA 9 and 20, default settings; long only when 9 > 20 and short only when 9 < 20; 5-minute chart for intraday index trades (Ma1HnAXxww4); 1-hour 'most accurate' (ppuEOzpEYlg); entry candle at the 9 EMA that closes beyond the EMAs; stop at the entry candle's low/high, or at the swing low/high; minimum 1:3 risk-reward measured on the spot chart; 1:2 in his scalping version; ride the trend until a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM); first pullback after the crossover; no trading in a sideways/intertwined market; trade with the 1-hour trend.

**Our interpretation (he names it but never defines it; label it on screen or leave it out):** 'range' and 'breakout' = a candle close beyond the high/low of the previous 12 candles, within 12 candles before the crossover or after it; 'comes to the 9 EMA' = the candle's low (high for shorts) touches or crosses the 9 EMA; 'bullish candle' = close above open; 'price runs, then first pullback' = at least one candle entirely beyond the 9 EMA after the cross before the entry candle; 'sideways / intertwined' = 2 or more other crossovers in the 12 candles before the cross; 'swing low' = lowest low of the last 5 candles including the entry candle; 1-hour trend = 9 vs 20 EMA on the last completed 1-hour candle; intraday flat at 15:20; 1-hour index variants may hold up to 5 sessions; one position at a time.

**Not coded (pure discretion or undefined):** volume confirmation (spot index has no volume; he says to read it on futures); support/resistance, neckline, change-of-character, order blocks and other price-action confirmations he adds on the chart; premium-chart confirmation of the spot signal and choice of side by 'whose premium is running'; VIX, news and 'market structure' judgement; adding on / averaging and partial booking; trailing the stop to each new candle low (except the 20-EMA exit); Friday / expiry-day preferences.

## His premises (sb_premises_NIFTY_BANKNIFTY_FINNIFTY.json)

**NIFTY** — 'bigger timeframe = more accurate' (lp57qG4Evj0) vs '5 minute only' (Ma1HnAXxww4); same rules, zero cost:

| Timeframe variant | Trades | Target hit | Win | Avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5m · EXACT rules · 1:3 · zero cost | 5782 | 22.5% | 30.4% | 0.081 |
| P2 15m · EXACT rules · 1:3 · zero cost | 1890 | 15.3% | 37.3% | 0.105 |
| P2 1h · EXACT rules · 1:3 · hold 5 sessions · zero cost | 506 | 27.7% | 31.4% | 0.13 |

Trend days (open-to-close move >= 60% of the day's high-low range (our definition)): 39.5% of 2794 days (he says 3–4 days in 10 trend, r96JUvEANlE 15:25).

**NIFTY** — Big Bar: '10 में से आठ बार … बिग बार के बाद से डायरेक्शन होता है' (KpOwBYb3H7c 0:18:52), measured:

| Definition | Big bars | Next candle continues | Goes ½ bar further before its stop (≤3 candles) | Ordinary candles: next continues / ½-bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB 5m big bars (BB1 definition, all hours) | 203 | 49.8% | 53.2% | 48.1% / 50.3% |
| PB 5m big bars, no cap, no touch | 7712 | 47.3% | 42.1% | 48.1% / 50.8% |

**BANKNIFTY** — 'bigger timeframe = more accurate' (lp57qG4Evj0) vs '5 minute only' (Ma1HnAXxww4); same rules, zero cost:

| Timeframe variant | Trades | Target hit | Win | Avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5m · EXACT rules · 1:3 · zero cost | 5819 | 20.1% | 29.2% | 0.006 |
| P2 15m · EXACT rules · 1:3 · zero cost | 1976 | 14.7% | 36.0% | 0.071 |
| P2 1h · EXACT rules · 1:3 · hold 5 sessions · zero cost | 522 | 28.0% | 33.7% | 0.181 |

Trend days (open-to-close move >= 60% of the day's high-low range (our definition)): 36.4% of 2794 days (he says 3–4 days in 10 trend, r96JUvEANlE 15:25).

**BANKNIFTY** — Big Bar: '10 में से आठ बार … बिग बार के बाद से डायरेक्शन होता है' (KpOwBYb3H7c 0:18:52), measured:

| Definition | Big bars | Next candle continues | Goes ½ bar further before its stop (≤3 candles) | Ordinary candles: next continues / ½-bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB 5m big bars (BB1 definition, all hours) | 6 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% / 48.6% |
| PB 5m big bars, no cap, no touch | 7326 | 47.0% | 41.1% | 47.0% / 49.0% |

**FINNIFTY** — 'bigger timeframe = more accurate' (lp57qG4Evj0) vs '5 minute only' (Ma1HnAXxww4); same rules, zero cost:

| Timeframe variant | Trades | Target hit | Win | Avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5m · EXACT rules · 1:3 · zero cost | 5821 | 19.8% | 28.6% | -0.013 |
| P2 15m · EXACT rules · 1:3 · zero cost | 1960 | 13.8% | 35.1% | 0.028 |
| P2 1h · EXACT rules · 1:3 · hold 5 sessions · zero cost | 506 | 27.3% | 32.2% | 0.119 |

Trend days (open-to-close move >= 60% of the day's high-low range (our definition)): 38.9% of 2794 days (he says 3–4 days in 10 trend, r96JUvEANlE 15:25).

**FINNIFTY** — Big Bar: '10 में से आठ बार … बिग बार के बाद से डायरेक्शन होता है' (KpOwBYb3H7c 0:18:52), measured:

| Definition | Big bars | Next candle continues | Goes ½ bar further before its stop (≤3 candles) | Ordinary candles: next continues / ½-bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PB 5m big bars (BB1 definition, all hours) | 12 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 47.8% / 49.1% |
| PB 5m big bars, no cap, no touch | 7478 | 48.5% | 40.6% | 47.8% / 49.6% |

## Second data source (sb_crosscheck.json): Kaggle spot vs Hugging Face spot, same rules, zero costs

**NIFTY** 2021-05-24 .. 2026-05-14: 460,280 common minutes; 1-min close difference median 0.0 pt, p99 1.9 pt.

| Variant | Kaggle trades | HF trades | Same entry minute | Same entry + exit type | Target hit K / H | Avg R K / H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 2533 | 2520 | 2367 | 2349 | 21.5% / 21.6% | 0.056 / 0.054 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 2603 | 2597 | 2447 | 2425 | 50.9% / 51.1% | 0.044 / 0.047 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 2657 | 2649 | 2507 | 2485 | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.141 / 0.157 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1146 | 1153 | 1088 | 1079 | 24.5% / 24.6% | 0.124 / 0.119 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 227 | 224 | 216 | 211 | 29.5% / 28.6% | 0.234 / 0.184 |

**BANKNIFTY** 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-14: 459,117 common minutes; 1-min close difference median 0.0 pt, p99 7.2 pt.

| Variant | Kaggle trades | HF trades | Same entry minute | Same entry + exit type | Target hit K / H | Avg R K / H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 2536 | 2541 | 2365 | 2343 | 19.4% / 18.9% | -0.003 / -0.031 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 2664 | 2674 | 2497 | 2476 | 46.7% / 46.7% | -0.033 / -0.035 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 2733 | 2726 | 2566 | 2535 | 0.0% / 0.0% | 0.013 / 0.003 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1147 | 1146 | 1064 | 1060 | 21.8% / 21.5% | -0.002 / -0.01 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 240 | 240 | 229 | 225 | 27.1% / 26.2% | 0.077 / 0.045 |

## Real option premiums (sb_options_NIFTY.json): NIFTY weekly options, 1-minute, Hugging Face (CC BY-NC, cross-check only)

| Variant | Strike | Trades | Span | Spot target hit | Option trades won (net) | Avg gross / cost / net (premium pts) | Total net ₹ (1 lot) | Total gross ₹ (1 lot) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | ATM | 625 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-05 | 21.9% | 26.6% | -0.97 / 2.16 / -3.13 | ₹-117,597 | ₹-48,302 |
| EXACT (Ma1HnAXxww4): 5m · range breakout + 9/20 cross · 9-EMA touch, green candle closes beyond 9/20 · SL entry candle · 1:3 · first entry per cross | 1 strike ITM | 625 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-05 | 21.9% | 28.2% | -0.8 / 2.21 / -3.01 | ₹-113,551 | ₹-42,480 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | ATM | 289 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-04 | 26.6% | 32.5% | 0.81 / 2.15 / -1.34 | ₹-18,485 | ₹13,497 |
| ALL CONDITIONS: 5m · breakout + cross · not intertwined · first pullback after price leaves the 9 EMA · green candle · 1-hour trend agrees · SL entry candle · 1:3 | 1 strike ITM | 289 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-04 | 26.6% | 33.9% | 1.41 / 2.21 / -0.79 | ₹-11,184 | ₹21,645 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | ATM | 640 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-05 | 49.8% | 46.1% | 0.11 / 2.16 / -2.05 | ₹-64,608 | ₹6,398 |
| GENEROUS: 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:1 | 1 strike ITM | 640 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-05 | 49.8% | 46.6% | 0.31 / 2.22 / -1.91 | ₹-58,733 | ₹14,093 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | ATM | 656 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-05 | 0.0% | 19.7% | 0.18 / 2.16 / -1.98 | ₹-81,065 | ₹-8,140 |
| 5m · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · ride: exit on a close beyond the 20 EMA (ITM reading) | 1 strike ITM | 656 | 2021-05-27 .. 2026-05-05 | 0.0% | 22.1% | 0.4 / 2.21 / -1.81 | ₹-76,093 | ₹-1,293 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | ATM | 40 | 2021-06-18 .. 2026-04-06 | 22.5% | 22.5% | -7.16 / 2.06 / -9.21 | ₹-38,173 | ₹-33,597 |
| 1h · breakout + cross · SL entry candle · 1:3 · may hold 5 sessions | 1 strike ITM | 40 | 2021-06-18 .. 2026-04-06 | 22.5% | 22.5% | -10.03 / 2.11 / -12.13 | ₹-46,714 | ₹-42,032 |

## His public record: Sensibull-verified daily P&L (sb_record_audit.json)

Source: https://web.sensibull.com/verified-pnl/laureled-lettuce/ (linked from his descriptions as https://bit.ly/stockburner_sensibull), Zerodha positions, retrieved 2026-10-09. Sensibull: "If P&Ls on some days are missing, it is suspicious. (blog.sensibull.com/2022/11/09/verified-profit-and-loss-by-sensibull/)"

- Span 2023-05-17 .. 2024-09-04: 322 NSE sessions; 258 shared (224 trade days, 37 'no trade day' cards); **64 sessions never shared**.
- Longest unshared runs: 2023-07-06 → 2023-08-11 (27 sessions); 2024-01-01 → 2024-01-17 (13 sessions).
- Disputed days present in the verified record: 2023-08-03: no, 2024-06-19: no.
- Shared trade days: total **₹14,478,440** position P&L (before charges); 177 green / 47 red (79.0% green); average green day ₹124,113, average red day ₹-159,353; best 2023-12-06 ₹1,066,972; worst 2024-06-20 ₹-1,318,076.

| Month | Sessions | Shared trade days | Unshared | Total (₹) | Green / red | Worst day (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 87,746 | 6 / 5 | -174,290 |
| 2023-06 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 463,379 | 14 / 4 | -294,642 |
| 2023-07 | 21 | 2 | 19 | -95,896 | 0 / 2 | -83,712 |
| 2023-08 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 1,155,223 | 6 / 2 | -143,500 |
| 2023-09 | 20 | 18 | 1 | 1,239,789 | 16 / 2 | -134,859 |
| 2023-10 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1,341,730 | 16 / 4 | -111,658 |
| 2023-11 | 20 | 20 | 1 | 1,359,846 | 16 / 4 | -201,821 |
| 2023-12 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 535,594 | 6 / 4 | -605,540 |
| 2024-01 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 1,919,294 | 8 / 0 | 9,594 |
| 2024-02 | 21 | 19 | 1 | 1,753,755 | 14 / 5 | -289,107 |
| 2024-03 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 651,140 | 13 / 4 | -598,052 |
| 2024-04 | 20 | 16 | 2 | 655,630 | 14 / 2 | -369,948 |
| 2024-05 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 1,177,866 | 18 / 3 | -91,048 |
| 2024-06 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 227,881 | 14 / 1 | -1,318,076 |
| 2024-07 | 22 | 15 | 2 | 1,837,500 | 12 / 3 | -209,568 |
| 2024-08 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 167,963 | 4 / 2 | -121,181 |

**His statements vs the verified record (same period):**

| ID | Period | His words (video, time) | He said | Verified shared days | Verified total (₹) | Unshared sessions in the period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 2023-05 | May net loss around ₹3 lakh (title: 'Monthly P&L Exposed Continuing Losses of -₹3,00,000') (4J2ytBeGXNE 0:10:46) | ₹-300,000 | 11 of 11 | 87,746 | 0 |
| R2 | 2023-06 | June 2023 single days of -₹5L, -₹3L (overnight) and -₹2L; '20 लाख के कैपिटल को 13 14 लाख पे' (20L capital fell to 13-14L, 0:05:16) (xWVrYE5piBg 0:09:05) | see words | 18 of 21 | 463,379 | 3: 2023-06-01, 2023-06-12, 2023-06-19 |
| R3 | 2023-07 | I think this month's net will be 33-34 lakh (could be ASR for 3.3-3.4 lakh) (uRN1v9Btaug 0:09:43) | see words (ASR uncertain) | 2 of 21 | -95,896 | 19: 2023-07-04, 2023-07-06, 2023-07-07, 2023-07-10, 2023-07-11, 2023-07-12… |
| R4 | 2023-08-03 | 150% ROI vlog of 3 Aug 2023 ((vlog 'How I made profit of +5 lakh Nifty Expiry-150% RoI', per Moneycontrol 23 Aug 2023) ) | ₹560,000 | 0 of 1 | 0 | 1: 2023-08-03 |
| R5 | 2023 | one account about -₹25L; the F&O account about +₹94L, January to December 2023 (hBEhDMxQ-yM 0:08:03) | ₹9,400,000 | 107 of 155 | 6,087,411 | 38: 2023-06-01, 2023-06-12, 2023-06-19, 2023-07-04, 2023-07-06, 2023-07-07… |
| R6 | 2024-04 | 1 April to now about ₹8.6 lakh; otherwise (without one loss) 12-13 lakh (E2GtBJNOqN0 0:11:46) | ₹860,000 (ASR uncertain) | 15 of 18 | 638,790 | 1: 2024-04-04 |
| R7 | 2024-04 | April was around ₹10 lakh, May was around ₹10 lakh (rMkxKGIBFR4 0:08:59) | ₹1,000,000 | 16 of 20 | 655,630 | 2: 2024-04-04, 2024-04-30 |
| R8 | 2024-05 | profit about ₹10.32 lakh with a capital of ₹5 lakh; charges ₹64,000; '200%' (0:07:46) (IB9MEqzOP34 0:06:28) | ₹1,032,000 | 21 of 21 | 1,177,866 | 0 |
| R9 | 2024-06-20 | a loss of about ₹13 lakh, about 50% wiped out, a position of about ₹26 lakh (rMkxKGIBFR4 0:09:21) | ₹-1,300,000 | 1 of 2 | -1,318,076 | 1: 2024-06-19 |
| R10 | 2024 (about 5-6 months, not named) | this P&L is not of my daily account; gross profit ₹56.6L over ~5-6 months; taxes and charges ₹64.1L; net about -₹7.5L (also feOhxWRT_m0, 20 Jul 2024) (2pvN_rLArYI 0:01:35) | ₹-750,000 (ASR uncertain) | 96 of 121 | 6,385,566 | 20: 2024-01-01, 2024-01-02, 2024-01-03, 2024-01-04, 2024-01-05, 2024-01-08… |

**ROI framing (his own words):**

- xWVrYE5piBg 0:11:13: «फाइव लाइक कैपिटल … 2.26 लाख अराउंड 2.68 लाख का प्रॉफिट … 50% का आइटम वन वीक» (₹5L capital ... 50% ROI in one week) — same video 0:13:53: '20 लाख का डीमेट अकाउंट है 15 लाख बैक पर बैकअप' (₹20L demat, ₹15L kept as backup) -> about 11-13% of the account
- IB9MEqzOP34 0:07:46: «5 लाख पर ट्रेड कैपिटल … 10 लाख के आसपास का प्रॉफिट है रिटर्न्स है 200 पर» (₹5L per-trade capital ... ₹10L profit ... returns 200%) — 0:10:50: 'मेरे पास 20 लाख बैकअप में पड़ा है' (₹20L sitting in backup)
- Moneycontrol 23 Aug 2023 : «Kirola showed 150 percent return on investment or ROI» (the 3 Aug 2023 vlog) — same per-trade-capital framing; the account size is not the base

**Market-data checks of trades he showed:**

- 20 Jun 2024 NIFTY 23700 CE, -₹13.18L (Sensibull card 'Taken @ 20 Jun 2024, 3:56 PM', NIFTY 23567.00): {"nifty_19jun": {"open": 23629.85, "high": 23664.0, "low": 23412.9, "close": 23521.4}, "nifty_19jun_close_1529": 23521.4, "nifty_20jun": {"open": 23586.15, "high": 23624.0, "low": 23442.6, "close": 23579.15}, "gap_20jun_open_vs_19jun_close_pts": 64.75, "nifty_20jun_1529_close": 23579.15, "reading": "23700 CE expired out of the money if NIFTY stayed below 23,700 on expiry day (20 Jun 2024, Thursday)"}
- 3 Aug 2023 (Thursday, NIFTY weekly expiry) - the disputed '+5 lakh, 150% ROI' vlog day: {"nifty_3aug2023": {"open": 19463.75, "high": 19537.65, "low": 19297.85, "close": 19394.45}, "reading": "the day is not in his Sensibull-verified record (unshared run 6 Jul - 11 Aug 2023)"}
- NIFTY 20 Jun 2024 23700 CE premiums (HF thetrademarkk 1-minute, CC BY-NC cross-check): {"premium_by_day": {"2024-06-18": {"open": 31.6, "high": 49.7, "low": 21.8, "close": 31.5, "first_15min_low_high": [30.6, 41.2]}, "2024-06-19": {"open": 31.5, "high": 80.0, "low": 12.4, "close": 14.8, "first_15min_low_high": [31.05, 42.25]}, "2024-06-20": {"open": 20.0, "high": 21.35, "low": 0.05, "close": 0.05, "first_15min_low_high": [11.0, 21.35]}}, "his_story": "bought at ~50, ~40, ~30 (average ~33-36), held overnight, gap-up ~70 points, exits ~17-20, last ~13; ~₹26L position; ~₹13L loss (rMkxKGIBFR4)", "implied_units": "₹13.18L / (~34 - ~17) ≈ 77,000 units ≈ ₹26L at ₹34 - consistent with his '26 lakh' position"}
- 6 Dec 2023 BANKNIFTY 46800 PE +₹10.67L (card 'Taken @ 6 Dec 2023, 3:30 PM', BANKNIFTY 46812.85): {"banknifty_day": {"open": 47256.75, "high": 47259.85, "low": 46750.2, "close": 46801.85}, "card_spot": 46812.85, "close_minus_card_spot": -11.0}
- 14 Aug 2023 FINNIFTY 19500 PE / 19600 CE / 19650 PE +₹1.15L (card 'Taken @ 14 Aug 2023, 8:50 PM', FINNIFTY 19652.50): {"finnifty_day": {"open": 19647.1, "high": 19703.4, "low": 19527.8, "close": 19635.65}, "card_spot": 19652.5, "close_minus_card_spot": -16.85}
- Nov 2024 BTC long shown live: entry 97,594, mark 98,736 (DLOxd7t8nQs, 25 Nov 2024): {"window_ist": "2024-11-20 .. 2024-11-25", "low": 91320.0, "high": 99588.01, "first_open": 93663.48, "last_close": 95458.45, "source": "Binance spot 5-minute (proxy for Delta perpetuals)", "levels_inside_range": [true, true]}
- Apr 2025 BTC short from ~13 Apr, scaled 2->12 BTC into a spike on 21 Apr, closed 22 Apr; -$34,000 (jnLWteKE5SQ): {"window_ist": "2025-04-13 .. 2025-04-23", "low": 83034.23, "high": 94696.05, "first_open": 84977.83, "last_close": 93896.42, "source": "Binance spot 5-minute (proxy for Delta perpetuals)"}
- 21 Sep 2026: 150 ETH short, -$12,000 = -$80/ETH needed (gpflJzHCY5Q): {"window_ist": "2026-09-21 .. 2026-09-21", "low": 2608.31, "high": 2769.11, "first_open": 2638.53, "last_close": 2751.15, "source": "Binance spot 5-minute (proxy for Delta perpetuals)"}
- 21 Sep 2026: 2 BTC short stopped, -$4,290 = -$2,145/BTC needed (gpflJzHCY5Q): {"window_ist": "2026-09-21 .. 2026-09-21", "low": 80579.43, "high": 86344.7, "first_open": 81271.2, "last_close": 85923.02, "source": "Binance spot 5-minute (proxy for Delta perpetuals)"}