the claim, in his words
Figuring Out with Raj Shamani, episode FO414, uploaded 27 September 2025. The original episode was made private about two days later, so the links go to a public re-upload of the full episode. Lines are translated from Hinglish by us; click to hear the original.
his rules, as we tested them
| market | Nasdaq-100 (US Tech 100 CFD, the version most retail traders use) |
| first 30 minutes | high and low of 9:30–9:59 New York time: the “initial balance” |
| buy | price breaks above that high after 10:00 |
| sell | price breaks below that low after 10:00 |
| stop loss | tested both ways he said it: at the other end of the first 30 minutes (his “point of no return”), and at the 9:30 open (his first example) |
| target | 2 × the risk (his 1:2) |
| neither hit | closed at the end of the day (he didn’t say; this is the neutral choice) |
| money | $10,000 start, 1% risk per trade |
how we tested
- Data: Dukascopy Bank historical datafeed (datafeed.dukascopy.com), USATECHIDXUSD (US Tech 100 / NASDAQ-100 CFD), real 1-minute BID and ASK prices, 2,953 NYSE trading days.
- Costs: the real spread from the data, plus 0.5 points slippage on every stop and market fill and 0.25 points commission per trade. A zero-cost run is in the fair notes below.
- Strict fills: breakout orders fill on the real ask/bid; if the stop and target are both touched in the same minute, we count the stop first.
- Every reading of his words: 18 versions (two stops, 1R/2R/3R targets, one trade a day or a second trade after a stop, with or without trading only in the 30-minute candle’s direction). All are in the download. The rules were written down before the first full run and never tuned.
- Checked twice: a second data source (HistData) gives the same answer, and random days were checked by hand bar by bar. Details in METHOD.md.
the results
Two numbers matter: the win rate, and the full-target rate. About half the trades end the day with neither the stop nor the 1:2 target hit, so most “wins” are small. That is why a 44% win rate is not enough here: with costs, this version needs about 44.9% just to break even.
| version | trades | win rate | full 1:2 hit | closed at day end | profit factor | $10,000 at 1% risk → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| stop at the far end of the first 30 min (his “point of no return”) | 2,937 | 44.3% | 11% | 49.6% | 0.975 | $6,050 |
| stop at the 9:30 open (his first example) | 2,791 | 36.7% | 18.1% | 26.6% | 0.81 | $322 |
| far-end stop + take the opposite break after a stop | 4,079 | 44.7% | 10.3% | 52.5% | 0.964 | $4,207 |
| open stop + take the opposite break after a stop | 3,692 | 35.3% | 18.6% | 24.4% | 0.772 | $37 |
| far-end stop, only in the 30-min candle’s direction | 2,510 | 45.6% | 10.2% | 52.6% | 0.999 | $8,631 |
| open stop, only in the 30-min candle’s direction | 2,508 | 41.2% | 17.2% | 35.2% | 0.955 | $4,648 |
Profit factor = money won ÷ money lost (below 1 = losing). Highest win rate across all 18 versions: 50.6% (1:1 target, not his 1:2).
year by year
| year | trades | win rate (best version) | result, R | win rate (his example) | result, R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 252 | 36.5% | -50 | 29.6% | -80 |
| 2016 | 249 | 38.6% | -36 | 31.4% | -72 |
| 2017 | 251 | 40.6% | -23 | 31.7% | -64 |
| 2018 | 249 | 39% | -14 | 36.5% | -10 |
| 2019 | 249 | 45% | +5 | 39.3% | -5 |
| 2020 | 253 | 44.3% | -13 | 38.4% | -11 |
| 2021 | 250 | 50% | +19 | 39.7% | -27 |
| 2022 | 250 | 47.6% | +19 | 39.8% | -6 |
| 2023 | 248 | 47.6% | +23 | 37.3% | -20 |
| 2024 | 252 | 47.2% | +32 | 39.7% | +5 |
| 2025 | 250 | 48% | +10 | 39.7% | -7 |
| 2026 (Jan–Sep) | 184 | 48.4% | -6 | 37.5% | -26 |
R = units of risk. +2R is one full 1:2 winner, about −1R is one stop loss.
his premise: “80 to 90% of the time”
- “the market continues in that direction 80–90% of the time”
- After 10:00, the rest of the day moved the same way as the first 30 minutes on 52.3% of 2,952 days. Close to a coin toss.
- “point of no return… 70 to 80% of the time”
- The far end of the first 30 minutes was never revisited after 10:00 on 46.3% of days.
- “two to three trades a week”
- His rule fires on 99.5% of days: about 4.97 trades a week. If he skips days, he didn’t say how, and that would be a different strategy.
fair notes
- Without any costs the best version wins 46.2% of trades and makes a small profit (profit factor 1.113). Still nowhere near 60–70%. With costs it is roughly break-even.
- Some years were profitable. The best version made money in 6 of 12 years (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025), but its best year was a 50% win rate.
- He may use judgment he didn’t describe (skipping days, news filters). We can only test what was said. If there are extra rules, publish them and we will test them too.
- CFD, not futures. We tested the CFD most retail traders use. A check against Nasdaq futures and QQQ on recent days gave the same signals.
check any trade yourself
The last 10 trades of the best version. Open a 1-minute Nasdaq-100 chart (NAS100 / US100) in New York time, mark the high and low of 9:30–9:59, and follow the day. Every other day is in the download.
| date | side | first 30 min high / low | entry | stop / target | exit | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | long | 29430.04 / 29300.08 | 10:28 · 29431.56 | 29300.08 / 29694.52 | 15:59 · 29425.32 (closed at day end) | -0.049R |
| 2026-09-18 | short | 29547.47 / 29475.51 | 10:00 · 29475.01 | 29547.47 / 29330.08 | 14:53 · 29547.97 (stop loss) | -1.01R |
| 2026-09-21 | long | 30122.89 / 29929.06 | 10:00 · 30124.37 | 29929.06 / 30514.97 | 15:33 · 30514.97 (full 1:2 target) | +1.999R |
| 2026-09-22 | long | 30645.02 / 30460.45 | 10:11 · 30646.56 | 30460.45 / 31018.76 | 15:59 · 30729.42 (closed at day end) | +0.444R |
| 2026-09-23 | short | 30714.91 / 30538.23 | 10:02 · 30537.73 | 30714.91 / 30183.38 | 15:59 · 30479.86 (closed at day end) | +0.325R |
| 2026-09-24 | long | 30328.21 / 30199.71 | 10:27 · 30329.71 | 30199.71 / 30589.72 | 15:59 · 30465.22 (closed at day end) | +1.04R |
| 2026-09-25 | short | 30642.34 / 30484.84 | 10:05 · 30484.34 | 30642.34 / 30168.34 | 12:05 · 30642.84 (stop loss) | -1.005R |
| 2026-09-28 | short | 30481.19 / 30308.92 | 10:05 · 30308.42 | 30481.19 / 29962.89 | 15:59 · 30284.34 (closed at day end) | +0.138R |
| 2026-09-29 | short | 30445.38 / 30266.85 | 11:26 · 30266.35 | 30445.38 / 29908.31 | 15:59 · 30335.28 (closed at day end) | -0.386R |
| 2026-09-30 | long | 30569.22 / 30410.20 | 10:00 · 30570.68 | 30410.20 / 30891.64 | 15:59 · 30414.28 (closed at day end) | -0.976R |
CFD prices can differ from your broker by a few points; the high, low and direction should match.
every clip in the reel, with its source
the other facts in the reel
- $200 at FortressFX, through his link
- His VIP Telegram steps, in the description of “How to get access - VIP Telegram!” (1 Jul 2026): open a FortressFX account using his link, then deposit a minimum of $200.
- licence: Comoros
- FortressFX’s own website footer: “licensed International Brokerage and Clearing House in the Autonomous Island of Anjouan, Union of Comoros”.
- India: restricted
- FortressFX’s own risk disclaimer: “Forex trading is restricted in certain jurisdictions, including the United States, North Korea, India, and the United Arab Emirates.”
- the “verified” track record
- umarsviptrackrecord.manus.space: the trades are written into the page’s code as a list (date, pair, direction, result). No entry or exit prices, no broker statement, no third-party verification, so it can’t be independently checked.
Business pages checked in October 2026.
corrections and right of reply
Found a mistake in the data, the code or a quote? Send it to us on Instagram. We will check it, fix it on this page and log the change here. Umar Punjabi or his team are welcome to respond, and we will publish the response on this page.
Corrections so far: none (6 October 2026).
This page is our test and our opinion of it. Quotes are short excerpts of public statements, used for commentary and linked to their source. Not financial advice; past results don’t predict future results. More proofs: realshyt.com/proof.